THE RUNNERS AND RIDERS IN RACE FOR DAVIES’ JOB
The arrival of Paul Davies as leader would trigger an instant rebranding of the party in the Assembly,
Supporters of the fluent Welsh-speaker argue that he has the ability to work across party divides.
It was hard to imagine a Conservative-Plaid Cymru alliance with Andrew RT Davies at the helm, but new possibilities could emerge with the Preseli Pembrokeshire AM in place (especially if a change of leadership in Plaid saw the party today led by Leanne Wood make a bid for centrist voters).
Mr Davies also has a keen understanding of the concerns of Labour voters, representing a constituency that was red on the electoral map until he won it in 2007. He won a majority of 3,930 in 2016. This experience of having to fight for every vote gives him experience of success and failure. The Tories lost three AMs in 2016 and three MPs in 2017.
Monmouth AM Nick Ramsay, who was the runner-up in the 2011 contest, has endorsed Mr Davies to lead the party.
However, there are critics. A Conservative source said: “This is not the time for a safe pair of hands – or indeed a man in a beige suit. We need a 21st century politician, that’s vital.
“The role of Welsh Conservative leader is meaningless without the backing of the membership and we need to have an open and honest debate about the group’s direction. If not, what on earth was the point in this gratuitous act of self harm?”
Ms Davies’ career in marketing and management started at Swansea Grand Theatre and there is some speculation she may be considering auditioning for a bigger role on the political stage.
A fluent Welsh-speaker, she was born in Swansea, and, as her website puts it, “grew up in Bridgend, Aberdare, Cardiff and Brecon”.
She was one of the Welsh Tories’ strongest supporters of the Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon. She described the UK Government’s rejection of the bid as a “desperately depressing decision for Swansea”.
The party got a glimpse of what Darren Millar might be like as leader last year when neither Andrew RT Davies nor Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns took part in a televised leader’s debate. Mr Millar stepped in and delivered an assured performance.
He displayed early ambition when at the age of 24 he became Wales’ youngest mayor for Towyn and Kinmel Bay. In 2007 he joined the Assembly and has grown his majority from 1,596 to 5,063. Mr Millar won respect as chair of the public accounts committee and is now the party’s education spokesman.
An incentive to run would be to have a north Wales AM in a party leadership position in the Assembly. He chairs the Assembly’s cross-party group on faith and in 2015 was commissioned as a minister by the Assemblies of God.
Montgomeryshire was once seen as a bastion for the Liberal Democrats but Russell George won it in 2011 and has since increased his majority to 3,339. He is not the highest profile member of the group but he has a reputation as a committed local campaigner.
David Melding (South Wales Central) is respected as a Conservative intellectual who has thought long and hard about the future of the UK; he has served as Deputy Presiding Officer and was awarded a CBE in the New Year’s Honours. However, he has said he is at his best as “one of life’s lieutenants” and is not thought to crave the leadership.
A coronation would spare the party a bout of uncertainty but the selection of a leader without putting it to the party membership would prove controversial.