Cannon to the left of her, cannon to the right – can the PM survive?
David Williamson on the dangers that Theresa May faces in her mission to get the Brexit deal agreed
IT TELLS you a lot about the febrile state of UK politics that a key reason why Theresa May’s Brexit summit at Chequers was considered a success was because none of her cabinet ministers resigned.
If it tested her diplomatic skills to avoid a walk-out and win the consent of cabinet ministers for her vision of the UK’s departure from the EU, getting the Brussels negotiators and the European Parliament to back the deal could be an even bigger test.
The Prime Minister is far from out of the woods yet. Here are four ways her Brexit plan could unravel:
■ 1. Brussels may say No.
This is the biggest danger. In fact, some people have suggested the reason why ardent Brexiteers have not rejected the proposals out of hand is that they expect EU negotiators to do that, which could open the door to a no-deal Brexit.
There is much that the EU will find very hard to swallow in the document published after cabinet agreement was reached during the Chequers talks.
For starters, they may balk at the idea of creating a “free trade area for goods” and say: “One already exists. It’s called the European Union and you’re on the way out.
“And if you don’t like that you can follow Norway’s example and stay in the European Economic Area – but if you don’t want that, or even a Turkey-style customs union, good luck with trying to negotiate a free trade deal with President Trump.”
EU officials are likely to be equally unimpressed by suggestions that a post-Brexit UK could have influence over a “common rulebook” for trade in goods, or that UK courts can be an alternative to the European Court of Justice.
But what will really make people in Brussels want to hurl the document across the office is the idea of a new “mobility framework” as an alternative to free movement of people. At a time when rows over migration have rocked the EU to its core, officials will not look kindly on a proposal to replace that pillar of euroidealism and integration – the freedom of EU citizens to work and live anywhere in the giant trading block – with a scheme dreamed up in Whitehall.
“If you want free movement of goods,” the UK may well be told, “You had better accept free movement of labour.”
■ 2. Theresa May may face a revolt.
When a country is in the grip of a heatwave there is a threat of thunder, and the PM may face a storm in Parliament.
It is one thing to release a carefully-worded statement on a Friday night, it is another to face a marathon scrutiny session in the House of Commons from hostile backbenchers. If Brexiteers are alarmed at the details of the proposals which will be laid out in the White Paper expected this week they will plot their next steps. A nuclear option would be to try to trigger a leadership contest, in the hope that a zealous and longstanding advocate of leaving the EU could take the helm of the party.
But they could also make it clear that the proposals laid out by the Government must not represent an initial negotiating position, but the red lines beyond which the UK cannot go.
If she has no political room to compromise with the EU on areas such as free movement, the role of the European Court of Justice or common regulations for goods, how can she deliver the bones of an agreement by the October deadline?
If a couple of cabinet ministers decided that they could not go out and defend the settlement sought by the PM and felt duty-bound to resign, then her position would be further weakened; this would intensify anxiety that the UK is at real risk of tumbling out of the EU without a deal. Turmoil could come to a head at the Tories’ autumn conference.
Before then, Mrs May has the challenge of getting legislation on the single market and the customs union through the Commons. The prospect of pro-EU Tory rebels uniting to defeat the Government no longer looms as large on the horizon as it did before their recent climbdown but they are yet another group of Conservative MPs that the PM ignores at her peril.
■ 3. She may lose the confidence of the City
The power of big business to alter the political weather was demonstrated when Airbus and the likes of Jaguar Land Rover gave their most explicit warnings yet about the threat of a hard Brexit to jobs in the UK.
Financial services giants and major donors may also lose patience and remind the Conservatives that the party is supposed to be the champion of business.
Anything which makes it harder to bring workers into the UK – such as when a company wants to fly in an IT team to work on a specific project – causes aggravation among commercial giants. Financial services players may also feel sore that their ability to sell services across the EU could be impeded because new arrangements will “not replicate the EU’s passporting regimes”.
If just a handful more multi-millionaires put cash and personal commitment behind the campaign for a second referendum, Mrs May will have to fight a political battle on yet another front. Consistent criticism of her personal leadership would weaken her authority both in the Commons and in Brussels, and heighten disunity in Tory ranks.
■ 4. Labour could shift position on Brexit
Advocates of a referendum on the Brexit deal which would give people the option of staying in the EU hope that trade unions who provide Labour with crucial funding and young activists who have done so much to strengthen Jeremy Corbyn will use their clout to get the party to fight for a “people’s vote”.
There are signs that Labour may be softening its stance. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer says that while Labour is not “calling” for such a vote it is “not ruling out a second referendum”.
The autumn conference could feature a showdown between pro-EU Labour supporters and the party’s own eurosceptics, as well as those who fear support for a second referendum would prove toxic in constituencies that voted Leave.
If the left and the right of the party did unite in wholehearted support for giving the public the final say, and this was backed up by a host of voices across civil society, then the Conservatives – especially if there are signs the Government has lost the confidence of the public to deliver a decent Brexit – could come under enormous pressure to put the ultimate decision to the country.