Greatest First Minister will be the one who unites the nation
KEN Skates’ decision to rule out running for the Welsh Labour leadership means north Wales will have to wait even longer before it is home to a First Minister.
The favourite for the post, Finance Secretary Mark Drakeford, represents Cardiff West – the same seat held by former First Minister Rhodri Morgan.
Among his potential competitors, Huw Irranca-Davies represents the south Wales Labour heartland seat of Ogmore and Vaughan Gething is AM for Cardiff South and Penarth.
What is it about proximity to the M4 that fires ambitions? Carwyn Jones, the present First Minister, represents Bridgend.
The only north Walians in the cabinet are Wrexham AM and Cabinet Secretary for Energy, Planning and Rural Affairs Lesley Griffiths and Clwyd South AM and Cabinet Secretary for Economy and Transport Mr Skates.
The dominance of south Wales is by no means only a Labour phenomenon.
The last Conservative leadership contest was between Andrew RT Davies (South Wales Central) and Nick Ramsay (Monmouth), and there seems no prospect of a north Wales Tory running this time. Plaid Cymru is today led by Rhondda AM Leanne Wood; of her two rivals, Adam Price represents Carmarthen East and Dinefwr but Rhun ap Iorwerth is Anglesey’s AM.
Has the location of the Senedd in Cardiff Bay, one of Wales’ southernmost points, fixed south Wales as the centre of gravity of the nation’s politics? Would Welsh democracy be radically different if AMs trekked to an Assembly, as had been suggested, in Wrexham or Caernarfon?
The big issues that generate passion in Welsh politics can seem to have a south Wales focus. The fate of the Swansea lagoon, the electrification of the Great Western Main Line, the future of the Port Talbot steelworks Cardiff Airport and the M4 relief road are all important to Wales’ economy – but so is the future of Holyhead’s port, creaking north Wales rail infrastructure and the vulnerability of the A55 to gridlock.
The life of a north Walian AM is significantly different to his or her southern counterparts. They have to spend nights away from the families and each week when the Assembly is sitting is bookended by an often arduous journey the length of Wales.
South Wales AMs may well find they have more time and energy for networking, campaigning, alliance building, blue sky thinking and plotting the next steps in their careers.
You could argue that it is does not matter where an AM comes from so long as the most talented individuals win the top jobs. But there is a risk that voters in north Wales will grow disillusioned with devolution if they feel their voices and concerns are not given the fullest representation at the top of government.
As Welsh self-government nears its 20th anniversary, it would be unfortunate if people decided they had swapped Westminster rule for Cardiff rule.
UK Governments in recent years have been led by Prime Ministers with constituencies as far flung apart as Sedgefield (Tony Blair), Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath (Gordon Brown) and Witney (David Cameron). There would be a revolt in the provinces if only London MPs stood a chance of moving into Downing St.
There will be no surprise if Rhun ap Iorwerth makes much of his north Wales identity in the Plaid leadership race. He will doubtless seek to portray himself as someone who can relate to voters across all of Wales, capable of forging a vision to unite and excite a nation.
Mr Skates’ decision not to run is especially noteworthy when so many of the Assembly’s 60 AMs are jostling in their parties for leadership positions. The Clwyd South AM was marked out as a potential leader not long after he arrived in the Assembly in 2011, and he is highly rated by people outside the Labour fold as someone of competence with a refreshingly non-tribal approach to politics.
He has endorsed Cardiff West’s Mr Drakeford – who is also popular for his personal warmth – and as a young politician he may well have future opportunities to run for the leadership.
Wrexham’s Ms Griffiths also gave her support to Mr Drakeford but she raised concerns about the geographic division in Welsh politics, describing the need for someone “who understands the need to address the growing sense of divide between the north and the south”.
A bold way of trying to tackle this detachment would be to follow the example of the European Parliament which shuttles between locations in Brussels and Strasbourg. However, voters in austerity-squeezed Wales are unlikely to warm to the idea of using public cash to hire a venue and pay hotel bills.
The dominance of south Wales has increased with time. In the early days of the Assembly the Conservative group was led by North Wales AM Rod Richards and Plaid was helmed by Caernarfon AM Dafydd Wigley, before he was succeeded by Anglesey’s Ieuan Wyn Jones.
North Wales has no reason to be neglected. It is crucial to Welsh economic fortunes as the home of Airbus, Toyota and the Wylfa B nuclear project. But a sense of true Welsh political nationhood will not emerge until the communities of north and south feel their livelihoods are truly bound together.
Many people in northeast Wales, especially those who commute across the border for work, will consider the economic health of the northwest of England a greater influence on their wellbeing than any decision made in the Assembly. Likewise, people in Cardiff can see on paper how Airbus’ operations in Broughton boost Wales’ GVA but wonder how it makes them better off.
The disconnection of different parts of Wales from each other may be a primary reason why no Assembly election has had even half the eligible electorate take part.
Welsh politics has an opportunity for renewal as a result of the changes at the top of the parties that dominate our democratic life but a primary task for leaders ahead of the 2021 elections is to uncover and address the specific anxieties that haunt communities across this small country.
The best way to create a stronger sense of Welsh identity is not to indulge in hoary romanticism but to deliver a quality of government that would have been impossible under old systems. When people in all parts of Wales take pride in what devolution has achieved the Assembly will command the attention it deserves.
The noble challenge for ambitious AMs is not just to be a First Minister but to be the greatest. These are still the early days of Welsh self-government and there is the opportunity for Founding Fathers and Mothers to forge a political culture characterised by compassion and competence; to awake and bring together a nation that will be a blessing for Britain and the world.