UK must swerve away from disaster

THERESA May’s Brexit White paper has given us the clearest idea yet of the relationship she wants to forge between the UK and the European Union.

For her vision to become reality it must be embraced by that union of 27 countries and be endorsed by the UK Parliament. It is by no means certain that this will happen.

Under normal circumstances, the White Paper would be a starting point for negotiations. The EU would identify which bits it liked and which it loathed.

But Mrs May knows that she has already gone well beyond what the diehard Brexiteers in her own party will tolerate. The question is not whether there will be a revolt, but if there will be an all-out assault on her leadership.

Brussels will be fully aware of her predicament. Michel Barnier and his colleagues know that if they demand concessions on freedom of movement and the European Court of Justice, to name just two topics, there is the risk that the talks process could collapse.

Some eurosceptics who are appalled by the continuing intimacy of the relationship with the EU envisaged by the PM would be delighted if the EU rejects her proposals and Britain leaves without the entanglements of an exit deal. But this prospect horrifies major employers such as Airbus who have warned that a “no deal” Brexit would imperil investment and existing operations.

The PM’s standing among Conservatives would be damaged if she relies on the support of members of other parties, but there would be little enthusiasm among pro-EU MPs to ride to her rescue. Mrs May wants to secure a free market in goods but there are MPs who argue it is foolish to take Britain out of the single market and the customs union.

Mrs May would be strengthened if there was an epic swell of popular support for her White Paper but it will not excite europhiles who long for a second referendum, or even those who would settle for continued membership in the European Economic Area.

The devolved governments will not go out to fight for her when they have had so little input into the White Paper and there is so little clarity about the balance of power in the post-Brexit EU.

It may strike many people as peculiar that the White Paper was not published before Article 50 was triggered and the two-year countdown to Brexit Day started. Time is short and Britain and Brussels must avoid mutual disaster.