Gridlock fears as crossing traffic goes up by 10%
TRAFFIC on the M4 Severn Crossings has increased by more than 10% this summer, prompting a warning of worsening road congestion ahead.
Newly released statistics from Highways England reveal that westbound traffic, on the first and second bridges combined, was 10.7% higher in May 2018 than in May 2017. There was a 10.1% increase in June.
The figures relate to the tolls, which drivers continue to pay until the end of this year. Tolls are not levied for eastbound journeys.
Highways England took over operation of both bridges on January 8. There was an immediate reduction in toll charges because the governmentowned organisation does not pay VAT on the tolls, unlike the private consortium which previously operated the bridges.
Transport expert Prof Stuart Cole, of the University of South Wales, said the price reduction alone did not explain the recent increase in traffic, because the usual rule of thumb for transport was that demand increased by about 3% in response to a 10% price cut.
“This is quite a big shift in demand, because the price went down by 16% and we’ve got an increase of 10% to 11%,” he said. “You would expect demand to increase by 4% to 5% but it’s double that.”
Some of the additional increase could be the result of temporary factors, such as disruption on the railway between south Wales, Bristol and London; and fine weather encouraging more leisure travel this year than last year. Four Ed Sheeran concerts drew crowds to Cardiff in June.
However, some of the extra traffic could be permanent, with Bristolarea workers buying homes in southeast Wales in anticipation of the tolls’ abolition in December.
“Some people may have already moved, getting in now before house prices go up,” said Prof Cole.
Severn Crossings traffic was likely to increase by 30% after the tolls are removed.
“Hopefully we will get more tourists – it brings more money into the Welsh economy,” he said.
“There’s already a major movement between the West Country and south Wales in the morning and evening peak.
“The concern is the capacity on the M4 to deal with this extra traffic. There will be free-flow traffic at the bridge when the tolls are abolished. However, you still have the issue of the capacity of where the traffic goes.”
This could be a problem for users of many roads, not just the M4. Roads into Bristol were already severely congested in the morning peak.
He said the solution lay partly in improving rail services. This could be done through the new Wales and Borders franchise, which begins in October, or through the next Great Western Railway franchise, due to start in 2020 or 2022.
“Welsh Government needs to make representations to make sure that there’s an increase in train frequency between the Cardiff and Newport conurbation and the Bristol conurbation, to soak up as much road traffic as we can.”
People may have switched mode of transport in the opposite direction in May and June, when Network Rail closed parts of the main line for electrification works. The Severn Tunnel was shut from June 16 to July 6, with replacement coaches and buses to ferry passengers over the Severn.
When the tunnel was open during May and the first half of June, many trains were cancelled or were shorter than usual, or operated at reduced speeds and frequencies.
Prof Cole said the disruption to rail services could have resulted in more people driving across the Severn in those months. “A lot of people did transfer to the buses and coaches but there’s a lot of people who travel by train under the Severn, not just to Bristol but to London. People [from south Wales] may well have driven to Bristol Parkway and taken the train from there.”
The Highways England figures also reveal that Severn Crossings traffic was significantly higher in January, February and April than in the same months last year. It was 1.5% lower in March than in March last year.
A Highways England spokeswoman said: “The March figures were affected by adverse weather conditions.”