‘14 Welsh seats have switched to Remain since referendum’
ATOTAL of 14 constituencies in Wales would vote Remain if there was a new Brexit referendum, pollsters claim.
Figures show areas including Rhondda, Newport, Swansea and Carmarthen would all change their vote if offered the chance – prompting further calls by some for a second Brexit referendum.
In June 2016 only five council areas in Wales voted to Remain – Cardiff, Ceredigion, Monmouthshire, the Vale of Glamorgan and Gwynedd. The turnout across Wales was 71.6% – very similar to the UK’s 72%.
Two years on, Welsh figures involved in the Remain campaign have admitted they didn’t listen to the worries of their consituents. Academics have argued there wasn’t much of a Welsh campaign at all.
Now research has suggested that more than 100 areas across the UK that voted for Brexit would now vote for Remain.
The data, produced by consumer analytics company Focaldata, draws on two YouGov polls of a total of more than 15,000 people.
While the breakdown into individual seats may only be based on small samples in each individual area, the national picture, showing a significant shift towards Remain, bolsters suggestions that voters in both north and south Wales would change their minds if they could choose again.
According to the polls, a total 112 of the 632 seats in England, Scotland and Wales have changed from Leave to Remain. This includes 97 seats in England, notably Boris Johnson’s Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency, 14 in Wales and one in Scotland.
Among the top 10 constituencies with the biggest change in opinion two are also Welsh – Swansea East with a 13% change and Rhondda with a 12% change in opinion from Leave to Remain.
But some have played down the significance of the polls.
Pro-Brexit Tory MP Jacob ReesMogg said: “Most of the polls said people would vote to remain in the EU in 2016, but when people got to the ballot booth they voted to leave.”
Tory MP Sarah Wollaston told an anti-Brexit rally in Bristol yesterday: “To proceed with Brexit without a People’s Vote would be like a surgeon carrying out an amputation, having sought their patient’s consent two years beforehand without either of them knowing whether they were going to lose a few toes or their whole leg.”
Pro-Remain Tory MP Dr Philip Lee said: “It’s not too late. The British people should have the final say. Brexit must be put back to the electorate in the form of a people’s vote.”
Liberal Democrat leader Sir Vince Cable, who also spoke at the rally, said: “Whether someone voted to leave or stay in the EU in 2016, nearly everyone is disillusioned by the mess the Conservatives have made of Brexit. This research is yet more compelling evidence that the British people must be given the final say on any – or no – Brexit deal. The shallow argument against giving the people their say diminishes towards nothingness with every passing day.”
Sir Vince said opponents of Brexit must work together “as a team” across party divides in the drive for a second EU referendum.
The Lib Dem leader said it was clear the “centre of gravity” on Brexit is shifting in favour of a national poll on the final deal.
Sir Vince told the rally that since the 52%-48% victory for Leave in 2016, “the situation has changed, the facts have changed”.
“We were all told the British Government was going to save vast amounts of money,” he said. “We now know that’s not the case: there’s the £40bn divorce settlement, the economy’s slowing down, there’s less money for the NHS.
“We were told it was simple – it’s actually proving unbelievably complicated. Another thing that’s happened in the last two years is Trump. The whole premise of Britain embarking on some buccaneering free trading adventure around the world as a country independent of the EU has been completely negated by Trump’s protectionist agenda. This has made a complete and utter nonsense of it.
“So our position in arguing against Brexit and for a people’s vote is now stronger than ever. But we have to work together; we have to work across party frontiers.”
And he said: “This is a campaign that we can win. Keep fighting, keep campaigning and we will win at the end of this.”