A second referendum on Brexit could be more than wishful thinking by Remainers still devastated by the result of the 2016 vote. Pro-EU campaigners point to polling for evidence of a ‘huge shift’ in the number of constituencies where there is now a majorit
It’s hard to see how you can get to Brexit without some form of confirmation – not least because I think if the consequences are as dire as most of us who’ve thought about it believe they are, you would have thought that the politicians involved would want some cover.” Brussels rejects her proposals for a new relationship with the EU. The country could face the choice between a Norway or Switzerland-style option which would see the UK abiding by many EU regulations to ensure the economy does not take a hit – an outcome that would be anathema to Brexiteers in her own party – or preparing to quit the union and rely on World Trade Organisation rules.
If international businesses such as Airbus then sound the alarm bell and there is the real prospect that investment and employment in the UK is under threat, political pressure to give voters a choice between a “no-deal” Brexit and the status quo would escalate.
However, if the UK Government refuses to grant a referendum, it is estimated that as many as 60 Tory rebels may be needed to get the legislation passed. Trying to get this through Parliament ahead of the March 29 departure date would be an intense challenge, but one option could be to hold it during the expected transition period after the UK has formally left the EU but when the status quo will remain largely in place.
■ What are the odds of a second referendum?
William Hill is offering odds of 12/1 that there is a second in/out referendum before the end of next year.
■ Do people want to remain in the EU?
Best For Britain and Hope Not Hate commissioned consumer analytics company Focaldata to study YouGov polling. It found 112 of the 632 seats in England, Scotland and Wales have changed from Leave to Remain majorities – 97 seats in England, notably Boris Johnson’s Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency, 14 in Wales and one in Scotland.
Eloise Todd of Best for Britain said: “The sands of public opinion are shifting and politicians risk falling behind.”
WHERE LEADERSHIP CONTENDERS IN WALES STAND... LABOUR
■ Vaughan Gething: Cardiff South and Penarth AM Vaughan Gething could see a case for a second referendum, saying: “Poll after poll is saying that people want a final say on Brexit, key constituencies across Wales are saying they would now vote remain, and yet Theresa May is hellbent on