A second Brexit referendum can help heal our deep national rifts
Geraint Talfan Davies, chair of Wales for Europe, argues that the case for a second referendum on Brexit is growing stronger by the day...
JUST in case our Prime Minister is thinking of having another bright idea on a walking holiday – Italy this time, since the idea she had in Snowdonia didn’t work out too well – let me remind her that the clamour for a new referendum on our relationship with Europe is growing apace.
This weekend a massive new poll revealed that there is a substantial shift towards Remain by people and constituencies that voted to Leave, especially in Labour heartlands.
It suggested that more than 100 constituencies would now vote differently, including Swansea East where there has been a 13% swing to Remain. This demonstrates an accelerating change.
Back in May 31 Welsh politicians signed a letter organised by Wales for Europe calling for a People’s Vote on whatever deal is agreed.
The signatories included 12 Welsh MPs, nine AMs, two MEPs and eight council leaders.
They also included the Plaid leader, Leanne Wood, and the former Liberal Democrat leader in Wales, Kirsty Williams. Kirsty Williams is a member of the Welsh Government’s Cabinet as is another signatory, Alun Davies.
In recent months too, constituency Labour parties, to the consternation of some of Jeremy Corbyn’s advisers, have been bombarding Labour conference organisers with pro-referendum motions in the hope that these will be debated at the party’s September conference. Local authorities, too, have begun to pass similar resolutions – in Wales, Swansea Council was first out of the blocks. More will follow in September.
Then last week a YouGov poll of 10,000 people across the UK revealed that those wanting a new referendum if talks break down outweigh those against by two to one (50%25%); even if there is a deal of sorts, there is still a majority in favour of a clear expression of the public will (45%-34%). It is time political leaders caught up with the British public.
The Government, despite its disarray on almost everything, is of course resolute in its opposition to a new referendum. The Labour Party leadership – not to be confused with the Labour Party itself – is also opposed, inexplicably so, since it goes against the wishes of nearly 80% of both its voters and the Momentum group that did so much to get Mr Corbyn to where he is today.
The Welsh Government has been more enthusiastic about Europe than Corbyn/McDonnell, without making it especially difficult for the reluctant duo. Carwyn Jones has stuck to a line of wanting full and unfettered access to the Single Market, but has so far not departed from a commitment to honour the 2016 result.
In Wales, of course, what matters more are not the views of the departing First Minister but the views of his likely successor. That being so, there may be scope for movement on the referendum issue.
So far only two candidates – Vaughan Gething and Mark Drakeford – have the necessary nominations, with the bookies’ money still on Drakeford, the Welsh Government’s Finance Minister, who was the first declare. He recently set out his Brexit stall to party members in a Facebook video, pointing out that the country is coming soon to a “second decision-making point”. It is only at that point, he says, that a decision can be made as to whether the best course is a “meaningful vote” in Parliament, a second referendum or a general election.
Now Mr Drakeford is a subtle politician capable of seeing a few moves further ahead than most. His video is either an expression of great wisdom or a beautifully crafted tease, possibly both. But he and all the other candidates won’t be able to wait much longer before having to decide whether to put all equivocation aside.
The same can be said of the three candidates for the Plaid leadership – Leanne Wood, Adam Price and Rhun ap Iorwerth. Despite being a signatory of the Wales for Europe letter, Leanne Wood has come under fire from Jonathan Edwards MP, one of Adam Price’s backers, for not resisting Brexit more strenuously.
Clarity may emerge during the next weeks.
At least you know where you are with Ukip’s new Welsh leader – in the gutter.
But what of the three choices that Mark Drakeford has listed – a meaningful vote in Parliament, a referendum or a general election?
It is hard to see Parliament resolving the issue. There is by now a stalemate in the Commons, with no majority for any conceivable Brexit – soft, hard, blind or just plain kamikaze. Despite there being a majority of Tory MPs who voted Remain in 2016, their fear of a Corbyn government – a fear that Corbyn himself haplessly stokes in them daily – is enough to ensure the compliance of all but a few with the demands of the whips.
That, of course, renders the second option – a general election – less likely. But even if the Government were to fall, is there really any greater prospect of a more decisive result than was achieved in 2017?
As someone who would instinctively prefer the workings of representative democracy through Parliament rather than direct democracy via referenda, I dearly wish that the matter could be settled in the lobbies of the House of Commons, but I’m afraid the referendum genie was let out of the bottle quite a long time ago. Like it or not, each referendum seems to justify the next.
But there are cautionary voices. Professor Anand Menon, who heads an impartial Brexit think-tank at King’s College London, recently argued that a second referendum would be just too painful for our society and should be avoided. He says that handing the decision “from a deadlocked Parliament to a deadlocked public is no solution at all”. But he offers no other alternative. This just won’t do.
Yes, there are risks in holding another referendum, but there are also reasons to think that it could produce a better outcome. The demographics of the UK will be more favourable than two years ago. The lies of 2016 are already in tatters. The public may still be divided, but in recent months opinion has been moving in only one direction, while beneath the surface a large majority are deeply pessimistic about the country’s future.
More positively, one result of the last two years of intense public debate is that never before in our history have so many people been so acutely conscious of just what Europe truly means to us – to our economy and to our society in all its facets. No-one will take it for granted ever again. Neither will there be complacency about the result as there was on 2016. As a sign, there are now active pro-EU groups in almost every local authority in Wales.
But it will require a very different Remain campaign. It will require parties to work together with an energy that they did not show in 2016. It will require a Labour leadership that commits itself full-heartedly. It will need from its leaders a recognition that Brexit, far from facilitating the implementation of a Labour manifesto, would become an incapacitating drag-anchor.
A new campaign will also need an element of idealism that inspires young people, not just a negative transactional approach – remain and reform applied to this country and to the EU. That could be the basis of a hopeful campaign and a healing process. It is a better alternative to further deepening the fissures in our society by prolonging unnecessary self-induced poverty.
■ Geraint Talfan Davies is the author of Unfinished Business: Journal of an Embattled European published by Parthian Books, £9.99.
THE clock is ticking on Brexit with under eight months to go before Britain leaves the European Union.
But with just 234 days before the looming March 29 deadline, many of Wales’ 22 councils have not prepared reports assessing the likely impact of Brexit on their regions.
That’s despite at least 30 councils across the UK – including Pembrokeshire and the Isle of Anglesey – taking the initiative to produce analyses on what Brexit will mean for the delivery of public services.
Pemrokeshire council is warning of the impact on possible border controls, loss of employees and EU funding, while the Isle of Anglesey is urging the need for an open border with Ireland amid fears of delays at the Port of Holyhead.
Other councils – such as Cardiff – insist they are producing reports, but are unable to say when they will be finished.
While others say they are working with the Welsh Local Government Association and would not be preparing a bespoke reports on the impact of Brexit in their areas.
A Welsh Government-funded ‘Brexit transition support programme’ will be delivered by April 2019, which will aim to ensure all local authorities are equally prepared for Brexit, the WLGA has said.
A WLGA spokesman said: “The programme aims to ensure Welsh local authorities are not duplicating work in preparing for Brexit, ensure all local authorities in Wales are equally prepared for Brexit in key sectors, and to establish a more formalised, two-way programme of communication between local authorities and those planning for Brexit in the Welsh and UK Governments.
“Depending on the outcome of the EU summit in October, and any possible emergency summits before Christmas, activities in the second half of this programme may need to focus on the implications of a ‘No Deal’ Brexit on public services and communities.”
The WLGA added a ‘no deal’ Brexit would be a “disastrous outcome” that needed to be avoided at all costs.
We asked each of Wales’ 22 councils whether they had any reports assessing the impact of Brexit. This is what they said.
Cardiff
Cardiff council said it does not have a Brexit impact assessment yet, but it is preparing one.
A spokesman said: “The council is monitoring the situation and preparing an assessment, clearly there are challenges but it is too early at this point to say anymore.”
Cardiff council published a report in March 2017 with other public sector partners about the impact of Brexit on Cardiff.
The report said Wales receives around £680m in EU finding every year, and called for access to the single market.
Swansea
A spokesman for Swansea council said: “Along with other local authorities we are in the process of working closely with the WLGA and Welsh Government to assess the potential impact of Brexit on local government in Wales.”
Newport
A Newport council spokesperson said: “Newport City Council is working on how we prepare for the potential impact of Brexit with the support of the WLGA.”
Merthyr Tydfil
A Merthyr council spokesperson said that they haven’t yet carried out a full local impact assessment as there are so many unknown variables.
“We are however working closely with the Welsh Local Government Association, Welsh Government and a range of other representative partners and continue to monitor developments very closely.”
Wrexham
Wrexham Council says it has not produced a Brexit impact report as the issue can’t be considered in isolation.
Councillor Mark Pritchard, Leader of Wrexham Council, said the council “cannot measure nor assess the possible impacts of a no-deal Brexit” on its own.
He said: This is something which will very much affect Wales’ regionally, and while Wrexham does have a distinct economy and distinct demographics within Wales, we are so interlinked with not just partner areas in Wales but with others across the UK that Brexit doesn’t affect any one of us in isolation. As such, we don’t feel it can really be considered in isolation.
“To that end, we will work with the WLGA as a pan-Wales forum to outline our position alongside other authorities, and to see what work needs to be carried out in preparation for Brexit. We would also expect the Welsh Government and, fundamentally, the UK Government to provide further guidance on this issue.”
Vale of Glamorgan
Rob Thomas, managing director of Vale of Glamorgan Council, said: “We will be working with colleagues from the Welsh Local Government Association and liaising with colleagues from Welsh and UK government throughout the Brexit process.
“Locally, we will also seek to offer support and,where appropriate, advice to businesses and traders.”
Neath Port Talbot
A council spokesman said: “We have assessed the impact Brexit would have on our European structural funds and it is also a line in our Corporate Risk Register.”
A report by the council in 2016 said further cuts to local authority budgets would be “devastating”.
Torfaen
Torfaen council hasn’t got a report or a study but are involved in the various discussions that are taking place with the WLGA and Welsh Government.
Councillor Anthony Hunt, leader of Torfaen Council, said: “I’m extremely concerned about the potential impact of Brexit on our local economy and these concerns are intensified by the ongoing confusion and uncertainty within the UK Government.
“Torfaen has benefitted from significant European funding in recent years with millions invested in projects that have supported regeneration and infrastructure as well as ongoing projects that, for example are supporting people to find work. The future of this regional funding post-Brexit is among the key concerns that we have as a council.
“Officers have been working with their colleagues in other councils, the Welsh Local Government Association and Welsh Government to consider what impact Brexit will have at a local, regional and national level and consider what steps could be taken to mitigate any negative effects in the short and longer term.”
Bridgend
Bridgend Council said it has not
yet prepared a Brexit impact statement.
“The potential impact of Brexit is something that we are currently considering as a council,” a spokesman said.
Carmarthenshire
Carmarthenshire council says it is something they are working on and that it is likely to be on agenda for executive board or full council in September or October.
Caerphilly
A Caerphilly council spokesperson said, “We continue to work with the WLGA, Welsh Government and colleagues in other Welsh councils to consider the impact of Brexit as it becomes clearer, and what steps can be taken to mitigate this impact in our communities.”
Rhondda Cynon Taf
Rhondda Cynon Taf council says it’s currently working with the WLGA on the issue.
Conwy
Conwy County Borough Council said it’s yet to draw up an impact assessment.
A spokeswoman said: “Discussions are ongoing with all Council departments about the potential impact of Brexit.
“We’re looking at all aspects of the various Brexit scenarios on the Council’s services, and have not drawn-up an impact assessment report at this stage.”
Denbighshire
Denbighshire County Council said it hasn’t produced a specific Brexit impact assessment document, but the risks are being managed and monitored through its corporate risk management process.
A spokesman for the council said: “We are tracking the progress of Brexit negotiations closely as well as working with other North Wales councils to lobby Welsh Government for decisions on crucial issues of European funding post-Brexit.
“The impact on the council will vary significantly dependent upon the type of Brexit that eventually occurs and for this reason we decided not to produce a stand-alone document and to monitor risks and opportunities through our dynamic risk management processes.”
Gwynedd
Gwynedd Council said it is “gathering information” on the impact of Brexit in the area.
A council spokesman said: “We will be following the outcome of the EU summit in October, and any possible emergency summits before Christmas, with keen interest, so that we can make further preparations for the implications of all possible outcomes on public services and our communities.
“We are looking forward to the WLGA’s Brexit Transition Support programme for local authorities, which will help cooperation and communication between Welsh local authorities in preparing for Brexit.”
Pembrokeshire
Pembrokeshire County Council says it has not undertaken or commissioned any assessments on the potential impact of Brexit in Pembrokeshire, but that is has attempted to identify areas of risk that Brexit poses to the council and the environment in which it operates.
Of the 18 possibilities assessed, 17 were deemed to be negative including the imposition of border controls, loss of employees and EU funding and increased costs on imported goods withe the only positive being the reduced demand for services if the population decreases.
A spokesperson for the council said that this “does not however pretend to be a comprehensive impact assessment”.
“It does not, as an impact assessment would, seek to quantify the extent of the overall impact of Brexit on the council or the county. It is limited to identifying ways in which the council might be affected, the likelihood of that impact occurring and the relative seriousness of that impact.
“The council does have access to impact assessments for Brexit. Many have been published including those from the HM Treasury, Welsh Government, academia, industry bodies and other interested parties.
“These are not necessarily impact studies for Pembrokeshire, but instead deal with sectoral issues (e.g. farming) or larger geographic areas (eg Wales).”
Isle of Anglesey
Isle of Anglesey has produced a Brexit impact report, which urges the need for an open, frictionless border between Anglesey and Ireland.
The Port of Holyhead is one of the busiest ports in the UK and an important international gateway into Wales, employing 650 people, the report found. It’s the busiest cruise port in Wales and transports 76 per cent of all vehicle freight handled by Welsh ports.
Initial concerns expressed locally about the future of the port included the possibility of delays in loading and unloading ferries, longer checkin and processing times, and traffic instead using ports in England and Scotland to reach Ireland through Northern Ireland.
Councillor Carwyn Jones, economic development portfolio holder for Isle of Anglesey Council, wrote to then Brexit secretary David Davies in November expressing concern about a lack of clarity about what exiting the EU would mean for the port.
Alun Cairns, the secretary of state for Wales, replied in December and said Prime Minister Theresa May intends to maintain open borders between the United Kingdom and Ireland.
Flintshire
Flintshire County Council said it does not have a formal or specific plan for managing the impacts of Brexit.
Gareth Owens, chief officer governance at the council, said: “The impacts could be multiple on the local economy, the financial markets, government fiscal policy, and the movement of workers into and out of the public and private employment sectors.
“The council supports the business sector in the making of representations to Governments to support international trade and exports with Europe, has a treasury management strategy to protect its own investments in the financial markets, supports the case for a new UK Prosperity Fund with regional investment to follow the structural funds once they have ended, and has business continuity plans for its services which include planning for scenarios such as a shortage of available labour for public services. There are many differing predictions as to what will be the full consequences of an eventual Brexit ‘deal.’ As there is an absence of reliable evidence at this stage our plans do not name Brexit as a specific risk, and instead deal with foreseeable risks some of which may be influenced by the Brexit process.”
Monmouthshire
Monmouthshire council says it has placed the subject of the UK leaving the European Union on its corporate risk register and the council is monitoring developments closely, working with the WLGA which is running a support programme for all local authorities.
Blaenau Gwent
A council spokesperson said: “We have not prepared a Brexit Impact Study here in Blaenau Gwent as yet, but we are continuing to engage with the Welsh Government through policy and information networks and have responded to a number of their consultations. Further work is now planned for the autumn.”
Powys
Powys council says it has been working, along with other councils, with a Welsh treasurers’ group on areas that will be affected by Brexit including grants, funding support and staffing issues.
Ceredigion
Ceredigion County Council has recently finished a Brexit impact report, but has not yet made it public.
A council spokeswoman said: “The council has recently undertaken a risk assessment in respect of the potential impact of Brexit. This will be presented to the next Audit committee and will be made public at that point, as elected members are yet to view it.
“The assessment will then be made available to the public via the published papers for the audit committee on the council website.”