There’s no cause for alarm at dip in number of exam entries

Why are AS level and A-level numbers dipping in Wales? Here TOM ANDERSON, head of research at independent regulator Qualifications Wales, looks at the figure and says there is no cause for concern

OUR latest statistics show that the total number of entries to AS and A-level qualifications in Wales has fallen in 2018. It’s a sizeable dip and the question is – why?

This summer there are 44,995 AS level entries. That’s a 21.1% overall decrease from the 2015 high of 57,030.

Similarly, although not as dramatically, A-level entries shrank by 12.6% over the same period, from 38,480 in 2015 to 33,640 in 2018.

So, what’s the explanation and should we be concerned?

It’s important to say that there’s no cause for alarm because there are a range of factors underlying this trend.

As we highlighted when we published the statistics in May, the fall in entries could be caused by several factors including:

■ A smaller population size in the relevant age groups, reducing the number of students that could choose to enter these qualifications;

■ A fall in the average number of qualifications taken by students; and,

■ An increase in students choosing to study vocational qualifications, enter training or starting apprenticeships.

To understand this better, we looked at Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Welsh Government statistics on the overall population and the maintained and independent secondary school population in Wales. We wanted to see how the number of students that can choose to study AS and A-levels in Wales might be changing.

We also gathered additional data from exam boards on the number of unique students achieving at least one result for AS level, A-level or the Advanced Welsh Baccalaureate, and compared these to the ONS and Welsh Government statistics.

Of course, compulsory education ends at 16 and a large proportion of 17 year olds and 18 year olds in Wales do not study AS or A-levels. Instead, they decide to go into work, study vocational or applied A-level qualifications or start traineeships or apprenticeships after leaving school.

This is why the number of students achieving at least one result for AS level, A-level or the Advanced Welsh Baccalaureate is much smaller than the population as described in the ONS and Welsh Government statistics.

Most AS level entries are by 17 year olds, whereas most A-level entries are by 18 year olds.

According to both the ONS and Welsh Government statistics, these age groups have decreased in size in Wales since 2015.

The number of students in Wales achieving at least one result for AS level, A-level or the Advanced Welsh Baccalaureate has also decreased. When comparing the rate of that decrease to that seen in the ONS and Welsh Government statistics, the rate is similar for 18 year olds, but slightly higher for 17 year olds.

These trends suggest that decreases in the population of 17 and 18 year olds in Wales has been a major cause of the fall in entries for AS and A-level qualifications.

There may, however, still be other factors contributing to the decreases in entries, particularly in the case of 17 year olds.

Digging deeper into the data showed us that among 17 year olds, fewer of them are taking four or more AS levels, with more learners choosing to take three or less.

Among 18 year olds, we can see a small decrease in the number taking three or more A-levels, but it is in line with the population drop in that age group.

So overall, it seems that population size is driving the change in entries although it won’t be the sole factor.

We’ll be looking at these changes more closely over the coming months, including further exploration of what has happened in the current school year.

■ For more details and graphs on this subject, please go to the Qualifications Wales website at qualificationswales.org