Prime Minister staring into the abyss as EU leaders strike back
Theresa May is being pilloried for her tactics in Salzburg and a no-deal Brexit now looks a distinct possibility. Political editor David Williamson examines what went wrong, how it happened and what it means for the UK’s exit from the EU...
IT feels like a bleak moment for the UK. The Salzburg summit ended in humiliation for the Prime Minister, mocked on Instagram by Polish European Council president Donald Tusk and with French president Macron’s rebuke to the “liars” who said Brexit would be easy ringing in her ears.
Yet is this just the sound of European politicians playing to their own electorates by talking tough – as May herself has done?
Or has something gone badly wrong for Theresa May’s hope that her so-called Chequers plan could be the foundation of a Brexit deal?
■ What happened?
The Salzburg summit was intended as an informal meeting of EU leaders to discuss the issues they face.
Brexit was only one of the items on the agenda at the Austrian city on the border of Germany.
The migrant crisis the continent is facing was far closer to the immediate domestic concerns of most of the other 27 leaders.
However, the PM went hoping to win EU leaders’ support for her socalled Chequers plan and put pressure on chief negotiator Michel Barnier to change his tone.
Her Chequers plan would see the UK follow a common rulebook with the EU for trade in goods and resolve the need for a hard border with Northern Ireland.
However it is controversial for many EU politicians, who see it as enjoying the benefits of EU membership without paying the price.
■ What went wrong?
One narrative is that Mrs May fatally misjudged the mood of EU leaders despite repeated warnings that the Chequers plan as it stood could not command support.
It is claimed she took too aggressive an approach in an article in the German newspaper Die Welt, in which she attacked the EU Commission’s proposals for dealing with the key issue of the Irish border and demanded that the EU compromise.
She was not helped by getting a slot to address fellow EU leaders shortly before midnight after they had spent four and a half hours of a reportedly fractious working dinner discussing migration.
A diplomat quoted in the Times said: “She began to read out the article... That is not the way to command a tired group of leaders who are all [a] bit sick of each other.”
A further problem came when Hungary’s right-wing nationalist leader Viktor Orban jumped to her defence. Having arguably the least popular leader in the EU fighting your corner does not help win France and Germany to your side.
It is understood that at a lunchtime meeting the next day – at which the UK was not present – EU leaders shared their concerns about the British approach. There is anxiety about the future of the Irish border – this is not an issue on which the EU trusts the UK to come up with the goods.
The scene was set for the explosive comments by some of the most powerful figures in the EU.
■ What did Macron and Tusk say?
EU Council president Donald Tusk was unequivocal in his public comments: “While there are positive elements in the Chequers proposal, the suggested framework for economic co-operation will not work.”
French president Emmanuel Macron agreed.
He said: “It was a good and brave step by the Prime Minister [May], but we all agreed on this today – the proposals in their current state are not acceptable, especially on the economic side of it. The Chequers plan cannot be ‘take it or leave it’.”
The problem appears to be that Mr Macron and Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel see ensuring the integrity of the EU as their priority.
Mr Macron said Brexit shows that “it’s not so easy to leave the EU. It’s not without a cost, it’s not without consequences.”
With the October negotiating deadline looming, Ms May has been told to go home and come up with something new.
Mr Macron made some of the most colourful comments of the summit, putting the spotlight on Britain’s discomfort.
He said: “Those who explain that we can easily live without Europe, that everything is going to be alright and that it’s going to bring a lot of money home are liars.”
Chancellor Merkel was more measured but she insisted the UK cannot expect the EU to help it out by unpicking some of the binding principles of membership.
She said: “Today we were all agreed that there can be no compromises on the Single Market.”
■ Where does this leave Brexit?
The PM is in a new degree of trouble.
Brexiteers in her own party and the EU leadership have alike rejected her Chequers plan. It would be humiliating for her to tear up her proposals – and even if she did, could she ever come up with anything that would satisfy both sides?
The possibility of no deal being agreed is firmly on the horizon and this will send new waves of anxiety through the business community.
Mrs May said: “Let nobody be in any doubt, as I’ve always said, we are preparing for no deal.”
Further tough talk has come from Transport Secretary Chris Grayling.
He said: “What the European Union is asking in and around Northern Ireland is actually impossible for the UK to accept. If they stick with that position, there will be no deal.”
Meanwhile, former Brexit Secretary David Davis is expected to shortly produce his alternative plan, expected to be close to the Canadian-style free trade arrangements he had pursued while in the cabinet.
This will cement the impression that well-organised Brexiteers are increasingly operating as a shadow government. The upcoming Tory conference will be an opportunity for anti-EU campaigners to show their strength and deepen support among the grassroots.
Rarely has so much been riding on a Prime Minister’s conference speech. Mrs May will have to assert her authority and convince the party, the country and the EU that Britain is not heading for chaos.
But she faces stinging criticism from new quarters. Mike Penning, a former soldier and firefighter who loyally served in a succession of testing government roles, has declared Chequers as “dead as a dodo”.
If moderate MPs openly lose faith in the PM, she will worry that a vote of no confidence is only a matter of time.
■ What is the endgame?
The Prime Minister will hope that EU leaders’ tough talk in Salzburg was showmanship to prove they are not letting the UK walk all over them.
Mr Macron, in particular, wants to push through big EU reforms and this was an opportunity for him to defend the union and send out a warning to others tempted to follow Britain towards the exit door.
But this does not mean that the obstacles to a deal are not real and profound. If the UK cannot come up with proposals on the Irish border that are acceptable to both Brussels and Dublin, the crisis will only deepen as March 29 nears.
SNP First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has called for the two-year Article 50 process to be extended “so that all of the alternative options can be properly considered rather than having this choice between the frying pan and the fire.”
If no deal emerges, there is the theoretical possibility that the Commons could take the extraordinary step of instructing the government on what to do next. Senior Labour figures are excited about the potential for a general election, and a wellfunded campaign will press ahead with demands for a referendum.
Mrs May will hope the furore that her Salzburg trip has unleashed in the UK will convince her EU counterparts that if they do not (a) want her to be forced out by her critics or (b) for Britain to crash out of the union without a mutually beneficial deal, they must think hard and act fast to rescue a situation that is rapidly resembling a diplomatic emergency.