Brexit is nothing but trouble for EU
THERESA May’s chastisement of EU leaders for their response to her vision for Brexit demonstrates she will not abandon her so-called Chequers plan without a fight, but the key obstacles to a deal remain in place.
She singled out EU Council president Donald Tusk for not explaining why her plan would undermine the Single Market and for not making “any counter-proposal”.
People living across the EU may consider this rather rich. Ever since Wales and England voted for Brexit in 2016, there has been a clamour from business, academia and ordinary citizens in the UK for detail about what awaits, but cabinet ministers spent months repeating the mantra “Brexit means Brexit”.
This is one of the most unfortunate and obfuscatory soundbites in modern political history. There is a world of difference between a Norwegian-style deal which allows continued membership of the European Economic Area, a Turkish-style customs union arrangement and the possibility of cutting links with Brussels and trading on World Trade Organisation terms.
The consequences for industry of each of these options is distinct and would require significant preparation, but it was not until July 2018 – more than two years after the referendum – that Mrs May published her Chequers blueprint for Brexit. She is now taking the EU to task for objecting to aspects of it which senior figures have repeatedly warned are not acceptable.
We should not be surprised that the EU is not jumping at the chance to turn proposals shaped by the internal politics of the Conservative Party into reality. The vote for Brexit was a hammer-blow to a union which is struggling to adapt to the challenges of mass migration and rising populism; creating an opportunity for the UK to enjoy core EU trade benefits without membership obligations (while free to negotiate deals with other countries) will not be an instinctive priority for remaining leaders.
They may not want to punish the UK for departing but nor will they want to reward it; if they perceive that the PM is too weak to get any deal through the Commons, they will have even less incentive to grant her wishes by crafting a Brexit deal that other states could demand.
This week has been a reality check for the UK. Brexit may be a large fish that Brussels has to fry, but it is not necessarily the biggest. For EU leaders who are tired of British claims to exceptionality, Brexit means trouble, and a tickingoff from No 10 won’t change that.