A bright new future after rail franchise changes?
THE new Wales & Borders rail franchise begins in a few days and the process of changing the operator name on station signs and trains from Arriva Trains Wales to Trafnidiaeth Cymru (TrC)/Transport for Wales (TfW) is under way.
We can look forward to the transformational railway with new trains envisaged by Cabinet Secretary for Transport Ken Skates, but it will take time.
The services west of Swansea will receive these new trains and improved Sunday frequencies. However, weekday and Saturday train frequencies are to remain the same. In the train services requirement part of the tender invitation to operate services (published recently), bidders had 16 priority service improvements which scored differing “bonus” points.
Any other weekday proposals would gain few, if any, points and services west of Swansea (and indeed Bridgend) were consequently noticeably absent.
Whether this was an intentional omission, an oversight or a financial constraint facing TfW is no longer relevant. The scoring system was a comparative exercise of the bids; consequently services west of Swansea now have to be considered as a special case.
The justification lies in population numbers and demographic comparisons with other old industrial areas of south Wales. This is not to say the latter do not need improved train services – they do – but the same provision criteria should be applied to south-west Wales.
The combined population of Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire and north Swansea is 380,000 and a large part live within easy travel distance by car or bus into the existing rail stations, undoubtedly representing a suppressed demand in those areas.
Passenger transport research shows that suppressed demand can be attracted on to trains and buses through reliable services running on time, frequent services, shorter journey times and easy access to stations, often via out-of-town park-and-ride sites. At present the average frequency between Carmarthen and Cardiff is one/two trains per hour (TPH); for Haverfordwest, it is one train every two hours.
Journey times are extended because the vast majority of rail services between south-west Wales and Cardiff/London operate through Swansea (High Street) Station, taking additional time compared with a “through” station.
This proposal for a strategic southwest Wales railway using existing infrastructure, with three new trains (costing £9m) by 2023, provides a more immediate solution to modal shift and road congestion while fitting into longer-term plans.
The proposal being put forward here retains the current two/three trains per hour through Neath and Swansea to Cardiff and becoming two of the specified four trains serving Bridgend.
Trains into Swansea from west Wales would increase to two TPH from Carmarthen/Llanelli, with consequent one TPH each to Pembroke Dock and Milford Haven. Between Carmarthen and Cardiff, the service could increase to four TPH, two along the currently underused Swansea District Line (SDL) and the lower section of the Heart of Wales Line – planned in 1913 by the GWR to be a fast route for transatlantic passengers from its Neyland docks to London.
The Carmarthen-Cardiff journey time via the SDL would be reduced by 12 minutes and, with electrification, to London by 27 minutes using existing infrastructure. A new West Wales Parkway (WWP) station (costing £15m) would be built at Felindre adjacent to the SDL and the M4 junction 46, made very attractive by the new half-hourly service. It would give residents of north Swansea (avoiding the city centre), Carmarthenshire and Pembrokeshire direct rail access to Cardiff, Bristol, Heathrow and London, so avoiding the busiest sections of the M4 between Llandarcy and Newport.
Extending the current Morriston Hospital Metro bus service, with priority improvements, integrated into the WWP trains, could further enhance public transport use.
Further journey time savings could be achieved through increased line speeds between Swansea and Cardiff not included in Network Rail’s investment period 2019-24 (CP 6) along several long sections of track from 75mph to 90mph.
Now is the time to procure the extra trains. The TfW order for CAF Civity trains (currently in their design stage and assembled in Newport) which would serve west Wales could be increased by the required three trains as the order from TfW.
The Felindre site is to be developed for business and housing and a modern station could be self-funding.
It will involve combined action by Welsh Government/TfW, the Wales Office, the UK Department for Transport and HM Treasury.
Detailed economic and financial evaluation is required to win this rail opportunity to provide travel time and economic benefits to north Swansea, Carmarthenshire and Pembrokeshire.
■ Stuart Cole CBE is emeritus professor of transport (economics and policy) at the University of South Wales.