Wales needs more than a Pacific deal

JAPANESE Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s remarks that Britain would be welcomed with “open arms” into the TransPacific Partnership (TPP) will delight the PM but should spur some serious thinking about what is best for Welsh jobs and exports.

The TPP is a bid to bring together some of the most dynamic economies on both sides of the Pacific. The UK is separated from this ocean by giant land masses to the east and the west, but showing interest in joining the TPP is a way to signal confidence and ambition about life outside the EU.

Certainly, countries such as Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico and Singapore represent exactly the type of markets that any enterprising Welsh exporter would want to crack. The 11 participating states are responsible for up to 14% of goods and services and have a combined population of around half a billion.

It may be true the UK has not been swift enough to build relationships with emerging economic powerhouses. Joining the TPP would be an audacious move which would contrast with President Trump’s decision to turn his country’s back on the partnership.

The TPP was once seen as a way for the US to cement economic influence in the Pacific region and prevent Chinese domination of commerce. The Trump White House shows little enthusiasm for such multilateral diplomacy.

Together, the TPP members represent a colossal trading force – but the partnership’s emergence also underscores the scale of the achievement in the formation of the European Union. The EU reports that its share of world exports of goods and services was 17.9% in 2016, and its population of 512.6 million people sits right on our doorstep.

It is understood that the UK will only be able to join the TPP if it leaves the EU’s Customs Union. Fears about disruption in trade with European nations could prove stronger than any excitement about Pacific opportunities.

The Japanese PM also called for “wisdom” and warned against the consequences of a “disorderly” Brexit. Japanese companies with a long history in Wales include Sony, Panasonic and Toyota, and anything that could endanger existing operations or jeopardise future investment poses a great risk not just to national prosperity but individual family livelihoods. Soon, Wales will no longer be able to market itself as a gateway to the EU, with whom it will need a very special partnership to thrive.