Plans to increase tree-planting alarm farming sector in Wales

Farmers fear that the need for massive tree-planting initiatives – to meet Wales’ hugely ambitious climate change targets – is driving the controversial shakeup of the country’s agri-funding regime.

NFU Cymru estimates 1,375 Welsh farms will need to be completely covered in trees over the next three decades if Wales is to meet its 2050 target of reducing carbon emissions by 80%.

To help achieve tree-planting rates of up to 4,000ha per year, the Welsh Government is proposing “Public Goods” payments for land managers in its post-Brexit revamp of farm subsidies.

But the industry fears this will be at the expense of food production, which may instead be exported to countries where costs and standards are lower.

Meirionnydd farmer Hedd Pugh, chairman of NFU Cymru’s rural affairs board, said the timing of the proposals was disappointing given that farming’s Brexit and Our Land consultation is still ongoing.

“There can be no doubt that Welsh Government plans to use the future land management programme as the mechanism to drive this change,” he said.

“This is undoubtedly the most significant consultation for Welsh farming in a generation and this has overshadowed the proposals for decarbonisation.”

Agricultural emissions have fallen 12% since 1990 and the industry recognises it has an important role in the decarbonisation agenda.

But Mr Pugh said the burden for meeting climate-change goals “must not fall unequally” on farming and rural communities.

“Nor must targets in Wales be achieved by ‘off-shoring’ food production to other parts of the world,” he said.

“This would be a wholly unsustainable position for Welsh Government to adopt – it would not align with the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015, which recognises the fundamental priority of safeguarding food security.”

The Welsh Government recently closed its “Achieving Our Low-Carbon Pathway to 2030” consultation.

This sets out the actions needed to reach a 45% emissions reduction by 2030 across all sectors.

For land use and forestry, the proposals include 66,000ha of additional tree-planting, as recommended by the UK Committee on Climate Change (UKCCC).

This is actually lower than the Welsh Government’s own 100,000ha target, but still well above what’s currently being achieved.

Initially trees would be planted at a rate of 2,000ha per year, rising to 4,000ha a year after 2030.

Although, in theory, only 10% would be achieved through agroforestry, in reality planting will “generally take place on farms”, admitted Cardiff.

As the value of Welsh forestry has risen 45% since 2005, compared with 15% for the UK as a whole, the sector is seen as having huge potential to contribute to a circular economy in which timber products would replace plastic.

Mr Pugh said: “To put Welsh Government proposals into context, the average farm size in Wales is 48ha and to achieve targets on this scale will require the complete afforestation of some 1,400 farms.

“It is highly concerning that no assessment appears to have made of the impact on farming families, rural communities or indeed the environment.

“In the absence of this assessment, we remain wholly unconvinced that Welsh Government is seeking to strike an appropriate balance between decarbonisation and wider economic, environmental and social objectives.”

Future farm payments will also be used to drive on-farm reductions in carbon emissions, Cardiff envisages.

Measures will be stepped up after 2020 in a bid to reach a 28% target (on 1990 levels) by 2030.

Thereafter, government officials expect the industry to reach a 36% reduction by 2050.

This will mostly be achieved by increasing productivity and onfarm efficiencies, but other carbon savings could come from breeding livestock with lower methane emissions.

While farming accounts for around 12% of Welsh emissions, more than half of this (54%) is caused by livestock methane.

Brexit may achieve substantial reductions if, as is forecast, livestock numbers plummet.

But the 2030 consultation said this would be a doubled-edged sword.

“The great challenge of Brexit is to ensure its impact does not undermine the true value land management provides to Wales,” it said.