An insider’s perspective on the twists and turns of Brexit
Welsh Labour MEP Derek Vaughan spoke to chief reporter Martin Shipton in Brussels about the continuing uncertainties surrounding Brexit
DEREK Vaughan lives and breathes Brexit. As vice-chair and rapporteur of the European Parliament’s Budgetary Control Committee, he is more engaged with it than most and gets informed feedback.
With increasing speculation that there will be a deal between the EU and the UK Government – and with crucial talks taking place before the end of October – I asked him to predict what would happen.
He said: “I think there’s likely to be some sort of deal agreed by the end of the year. I know the Government keeps talking about ‘no deal’ being a possibility, and probably it still is a possibility. But if I had £10 to bet, I’d put it on there being some sort of deal agreed in November or December.
“I think the deal will be to fudge the three issues in the withdrawal agreement – citizens’ rights, financial liabilities of the UK and the border in Northern Ireland.
“The withdrawal agreement will be a political declaration about the future relationship between the EU and the UK and I think in that there will be some vague warm words about having the closest possible relationship with very little detail.
“The Government will hope that will be enough to get it through the House of Commons and maybe the EU Commission and Council will think that will be enough to get it through the European Parliament.
“Sometimes people forget that the final vote on all of this will take place in the European Parliament early next year – probably about February. If the 27 member states do support the withdrawal agreement, it’s likely that this place will vote for it as well, but it’s not a certainty. The Parliament does have the reputation of turning down something big – an agreement or a treaty – before the European elections, so we can’t rule out the possibility that the Parliament will reject it. And then that’s the end of Brexit – if the UK doesn’t leave with a deal at the end of March because we’ve turned it down, there would be a bit of a panic and maybe Article 50 would have to be extended.”
Asked how much longer it would be possible to fudge the situation, Mr Vaughan said: “I think it’s a disgrace that it’s less than six months before we’re due to leave and we still don’t know where it’s going to land. I speak on a regular basis to the people doing the negotiations from the UK side and from the EU side, and they still don’t know where it’s going to land.
“But of course, behind the scenes there are more and more negotiations taking place on these issues. I think Barnier wants a deal – he’s a negotiator. He’s going to want to finish and say, ‘I negotiated a deal.’ So he’ll want the withdrawal agreement signed and delivered. Then he’ll be content, I think, to leave the future relationship to some time in the future. I imagine Theresa May wants a deal too. The only ones who don’t want a deal are some of the right-wing Eurosceptics on the Tory backbenches, and that’s where her problem lies.
“If she goes back with a deal, is she able to get a majority in the House of Commons? She’s got 40 to 80 Eurosceptics who might vote against the deal. I think the Labour Party will probably vote against the deal as well, because we set these six criteria and whatever deal she comes back with isn’t going to meet those criteria. The other opposition parties are likely to line up against it as well. That’s her biggest problem. If she can’t get it through the House of Commons, anything could happen.”
Mr Vaughan said there was no way any deal could deliver the “exact same benefits” as the UK has at present – the term used in the second of Shadow Brexit Secretary Sir Keir Starmer’s six criteria that must be met before Labour would back a deal.
“When the UK leaves, the deal must be worse than we’ve got currently – and it has to be seen to be worse as well,” he said. “So there won’t be the exact same benefits. In the discussions we’ve had with Keir Starmer, he’s made it clear that without the exact same benefits the Labour Party will vote against the deal.”
At this stage Mr Vaughan says it’s difficult to say whether the House of Commons as a whole would vote for or against the deal, with rebels in both main parties.
Some of the Brexiteers have talked up the idea of a Canada-type trade agreement between the EU and the UK. Mr Vaughan is adamant that would not be suitable.
He said: “A Canada deal would cover most but not all goods. It won’t cover agriculture, it doesn’t cover services, it doesn’t solve the border issue in the north of Ireland because there’s not full regulatory alignment.
“Even the assessments done by the Government show that if we went into a free trade agreement like the one with Canada, it would hugely damage our economy. It would be much more difficult for our exports, whether it’s cars or wings in Airbus, to be exported to the EU. Essentially, they would have to show they meet all EU standards. Much more bureaucracy and burdens would be put on businesses. They have to show they met technical standards, environmental standards etc. These companies are going to face huge problems, and at the end of the day are these big companies like Toyota, Airbus and Ford going to stay in the UK and Wales?
“It’s not only about tariffs, but these regulatory burdens as well. I believe that in the future, when they come to make decisions on their next investments, and it’s a choice of staying in the UK and facing all these obstacles and going somewhere else, there’s a possibility they’ll go elsewhere. We’ve heard strong statements from some of these companies in the last few weeks and there’s a real danger that with a Canada-type deal these companies will up sticks and move somewhere else in the EU.
“Agriculture wouldn’t be covered by the free trade agreement and we know that about 70% of the red meat in Wales that is exported goes to the EU. Our farmers could face tariffs of about 40% on their exports to the EU. As far as I’m concerned, a Canadatype deal would still be a hard Brexit.”
Asked how he thought Labour was handling Brexit, he said: “I would like the Labour Party to go much further. My view is that it’s now democratic and legitimate to have a People’s Vote on the final deal. The discussion about the motion was a step forward, because it does say all options are on the table if the deal is rejected by the House of Commons, including a People’s Vote.
“Personally I don’t see a general election being likely if the deal is voted down by the House of Commons, because I can’t see a lot of Conservative MPs voting for it. Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas. But I think we could get 15 or 16 Conservative MPs to back the idea of a People’s Vote. Time is running out before March for a general election or legislation for a People’s Vote, so I think the EU would have to be asked for an extension of Article 50. I think in those circumstances it’s likely the EU would grant an extension.”
If there is a People’s Vote, Mr Vaughan is convinced Remain would win. He said: “Things have changed. I think people are much clearer now that the Leave campaign lied and cheated. What’s also more clearly understood is that Wales and the UK will be much worse off, as all the economic assessments of the Government say. That’s why there’s been a shift in public opinion. We also know that more and more young people have come on to the register who are very much in favour of staying in the EU. They’re likely to vote in greater numbers than they did in the first one. All these things coming together means it’s much more likely we would vote to stay in the EU.”