Warning signs that cannot be ignored

YES, Brexit is of monumental importance to the future of Wales, but what topics would be at the top of the political agenda if Whitehall’s finest minds were not focused on extracting the UK from the EU?

Two issues demand urgent attention – benefits reform and housing. The controversy over Universal Credit brings these two subjects together.

Community Housing Cymru, the umbrella organisation for Wales’ housing associations, can see warning signs flashing.

It reports that Welsh housing association tenants on Universal Credit are in nearly £2.3m of debt, stating that this is “an increase of 150% since December 2017”.

It further warns that tenants’ average rent arrears is now £434, up from £420 in December last year. The prospect of another 350,000 Welsh households being transferred to Universal Credit between July 2019 and 2023 gives it extra reason to worry.

Universal Credit bundles together a series of benefits, including Housing Benefit. This means that recipients who may not have previously paid their rent to their landlord face an immediate budgeting challenge.

There is deep concern about indebtedness and the social consequences. Anxiety is by no means limited to social housing circles or left-wing politicians.

Former Conservative Prime Minister Sir John Major has cautioned that “if people think you have to remove yourself from fairness, then you are in deep political trouble”.

There are expected to be some winners from the reforms and there has been widespread support for a simplified benefits system which makes it easier to enter the workforce, but the calls to pause the roll-out are getting louder.

Last year the Resolution Foundation warned that “3.2 million working families are expected to be worse off, with an average loss of £48 a week” and that “600,000 of those losers, mostly couple parent families, will no longer be entitled at all”.

The UK Government insists it has made improvements and it will be “paying people’s Housing Benefit for two weeks while they wait for their first full Universal Credit payment”. But it is right that such a radical reform to critical elements of the social safety net receives attention.

Brexit may dominate the airwaves but a government is ultimately judged by how it has treated the most vulnerable.