Imagine a political agenda without the all-consuming issue of Brexit
THERESA May’s fate will be determined by her handling of Brexit, but what issues would be at the top of the political agenda if the country hadn’t voted to leave the EU?
Some of the best minds in Whitehall and Westminster are focused on the Brexit negotiations while their colleagues scramble to prepare for a no-deal exit.
But there are scores of issues that could have a direct impact on the lives of millions of people which in normal circumstances would be the focus of political furore.
1. Fixing the economy
Bill Clinton famously fought the 1992 US election with the mantra, “It’s the economy, stupid”. Yes, people are concerned about Brexit but voters will also want assurances that the economy is not withering on the Conservatives’ watch.
At any new election – and there is no shortage of speculation that a contest could come well before the scheduled date of 2022 – the Tories will need to convince you that you are better off because of controversial decisions on public spending made since they came to power in 2010.
The Prime Minister has tried to inject economic optimism into the country, perhaps to guard against a crisis in investor and consumer confidence as Brexit nears.
She used her conference speech to point to the end of austerity, and the Government has signalled it is ready to boost spending on health in England, which would lead to more cash going to the Welsh Government.
But the highly respected Institute of Fiscal Studies has raised a very sceptical eyebrow. It warns that “just keeping spending on other public services constant in real terms would require an additional £19bn a year” and it adds this would still leave “social security cuts worth £7bn working their way through the system”.
There are also planned cuts of £4bn to the day-to-day spending of departments that don’t have a ringfenced budget, and public sector net debt stands “at around £1.8 trillion”.
As the next election nears, Opposition parties may well argue that despite years of austerity the UK economy remains vulnerable; in other words, that the pain has not delivered true gain.
2. Tackling poverty
And there is profound anxiety about the impact of the UK Government’s attempt to replace a host of benefits with Universal Credit – a project, critics have suggested, that could trigger outcry reminiscent of the fury that greeted the poll tax.
Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey has admitted that “some people will be worse off” and the Resolution Foundation has warned that “3.2 million working families” will lose on average “£48 a week”.
This is against a backdrop of wider changes in welfare, and the foundation last week reported that “the average lower income couple with kids” is on course for “a further cash loss of £210 next year as a result of the ongoing benefit freeze”.
There is the scope for powerful and urgent debate about how to reform benefits to meet the needs of an ageing population that will require unprecedented levels of social care while also helping young families in a labour market where jobs for life and decent pensions have all but vanished. Tackling working-age poverty will become even more pressing if, as predicted, Artificial Intelligence, automation and the arrival of driverless vehicles eliminates millions of jobs in the very near future.
These challenges come at a time when food banks are the last line of defence against hunger for families across the country.
Between April 2017 and March this year, 98,350 three-day food bags were give out in Wales, an increase of 3%.
The volunteers who run these services have saved thousands of households from hunger but there is deep unease that charities now play such an essential part in providing a basic service.
If people – many of whom are in work but still in poverty – cannot put food on the table, can Britain claim to be anything other than a broken country?
3. Building homes
At the UK party conferences this year there was widespread recognition that the can can’t be kicked much further down the road when it comes to dealing with shortages of affordable housing. Will Britain remain a property-owning democracy or will the dream of owning a home of your own disintegrate?
Concern is escalating about homelessness. This month it was reported that more than 440 people died in temporary accommodation or on the streets across the UK since October 2017.
In Wales, at the end of June, there were 2,142 households in temporary accommodation – the highest number to date.
In July, the average house price in Wales was £157,368 and was as high as £204,962 in Cardiff. When the average gross median weekly salary in Wales last year was just £498 (the lowest in the UK), it’s clear that for many people getting – and then paying – a mortgage will be a major challenge.
4. Strengthening defences
One of the basic duties of a Government is to ensure its people are safe from external dangers but there is alarm about the state of the Armed Forces.
At the start of the year the National Audit Office warned that the Ministry of Defence could face a shortfall of more than £20bn in its equipment budget. The replacement of the Trident nuclear system is a specific drain on finances just as the country needs to develop new cyber-warfare capabilities.
There is also the struggle to recruit a new generation of soldiers. The MoD recently disclosed that outsourcing specialist Capita brought in fewer than one in 10 of the recruits needed by the Army for 2018-19 in the first three months of the year.
At a time when fears of a new Cold War are escalating and China does little to disguise its ambitions as a military power, is the UK able to counter security threats from a position of strength?
5. Securing peace
And just how strong are the bonds that link the different nations of the UK? Brexit has put the issue of the Irish border under the spotlight, with London, Brussels and Dublin all keen to avoid the installation of anything that looks like checkpoints.
Far less attention has been paid to the political crisis that has left Northern Ireland without a government following the collapse of the Stormont administration in January 2017.
The Prime Minister is good at delivering rhetoric about her commitment to a “precious” UK union but if self-government is effectively over in Northern Ireland pressure will build for a potentially destabilising poll on unification with the Republic. In Scotland, legions of independence campaigners are hungry for another opportunity to vote on leaving the UK.
Mrs May or her successor will have to scramble to convince Scottish and Northern Irish voters that they really are a valued part of a post-Brexit UK.
6. Seeing the big picture
There are so many other issues that deserve public debate and the attention of the best minds in government. The rebuilding of Syria, the ending of the conflict in Yemen and the challenge of tackling climate change are all matters of life and death.
Yes, it is vital to get the best Brexit deal possible.
But future generations will be appalled if the country ducks challenges that will define their life chances because for years our leaders’ attention was captured by a single all-consuming issue.