How a Tory leadership contest could unfold...

A FLURRY of Tory MPs – including European Research Group chairman Jacob Rees-Mogg – have said they have lost confidence in Theresa May.

Here’s how a Tory leadership contest could unfold:

■ How would it begin?

To trigger a vote of no confidence, 15% of Tory MPs – 48 in total – must write to the chairman of the Conservative backbench 1922 Committee, Sir Graham Brady.

■ How many have sent letters so far? It is impossible to say for certain, as Sir Graham keeps the actual number a closely guarded secret. But ERG MPs believe it to be very close to the 48 required. Mr Rees-Mogg said that he believed the necessary letters would be submitted, but declined to put a timeframe on the process.

■ What if they do reach the 15% threshold?

A vote would be held among Tory MPs. Mrs May would need the support of more than 50% of the 315 Conservative MPs to stay in office. But even if she wins, if the margin of victory is small her authority may have been fatally wounded.

■ What if she loses?

If the PM lost the vote, she would not be able to stand in the subsequent leadership contest arranged by Sir Graham.

■ How would that work? Candidates for the leadership must be nominated by two Conservative MPs. If only one candidate comes forward, he or she becomes leader.

If a number of would-be leaders are nominated, the list is whittled down to a shortlist of two in a series of votes by MPs.

The final pair then go to a postal ballot of all party members, with the position of leader going to the victor.

■ How long would that take?

Sir Graham would be responsible for overseeing the contest and setting a timetable for the campaign, expected to last around 12 weeks.