What Theresa May’s Brexit deal means– and what are her odds of survival
A deal is on the table but MPs hate it. And Theresa May is still leading the country despite her authority being in tatters. Here is where we stand – according to head of news David James and political editor David Williamson
AFTER a year of negotiating, Theresa May may have finally struck a divorce deal with the EU in Brussels, yet the real war is only just beginning.
The agreement struck by her civil servants has been ferociously criticised from all sides, and yet it is the only deal on the table.
What happens next? Can the Prime Minister survive? And whatever happens to her, what is going on with Brexit?
■ What does the Brexit plan contain?
What Theresa May has agreed in Brussels is only a holding plan. Its 585 pages of legal text contain three fundamental things:
■ The agreement of how it will work when we leave the EU at 11pm on March 29 next year and the following two years (the transition period);
■ A rough guide to what the EU and the UK will be negotiating to achieve during that time (a free trade deal);
■ A fallback plan in case that free trade deal isn’t negotiated in time (the backstop).
■ What is the disagreement about?
There is a lot of technical detail in the 585-page document that touches on every sphere of business, policing, military, cultural and political life in the EU and the UK.
While there will be difficulties for some businesses as a result, it will help most to continue trading, will help people to continue to travel as they do today to the EU without a visa, and will help police forces to continue to work with their counterparts in the EU.
Major employers have come out in support of the deal, saying it offers certainty and will protect jobs.
The controversy is largely over the backstop that will come into force if the two sides cannot agree a free trade deal that ensures there is no hard border in Northern Ireland.
If there is no agreement, some goods coming into Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK would be subject to new checks and controls.
That is because Northern Ireland would be fully aligned with EU regulations while the rest of the UK wouldn’t be. Critics say this is unacceptable as it divides the UK.
Theresa May has agreed it because one of the EU’s key negotiating objectives was to avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland and she says she is confident that the backstop will never be needed (as a free trade deal will be struck in time).
The other aspect that Brexit supporters do not like is that the UK cannot leave the backstop agreement without the agreement of the EU.
And until a free trade deal is agreed, the UK cannot set its own trade tariffs. It may be allowed to negotiate trade deals with other countries but they won’t be able to come into force until there is a free trade deal.
■ What happens next?
In the coming weeks there are two key hurdles for Mrs May and her plan.
Firstly, she has to get the deal agreed by the civil servants in Brussels approved by the political leaders of the 27 other EU nations. That is on November 25.
Secondly, she has to survive any vote of no confidence in the Tory parliamentary group. If 48 MPs need to demand such a vote, then all Tory MPs will get to vote on her future.
We don’t know exactly how many
MPs have demanded such a vote but we know several high-profile ones have, including Jacob Rees-Mogg and other key Brexit supporters.
Up to a dozen other Tory backbenchers have confirmed they have submitted letters calling for May to step down over her Brexit proposal, including the former Brexit minister Steve Baker and fellow leavers Nadine Dorries and Andrew Bridgen.
However, she still has many Brexiteers in her cabinet, including Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom, Liam Fox and Chris Grayling.
■ Can she survive those two hurdles?
EU leaders are overwhelmingly likely to back the plan. There may be elements of it that individual nations don’t like, but if it meets the negotiating guidelines they agreed together at the start of the process it is likely to be significantly better than the alternative of a chaotic no-deal Brexit.
The fact that Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said he was pleased with the agreement and would not veto it is crucial.
She is also likely to survive any vote of no confidence if one is called. Even
though MPs have queued up to criticise her and five members of her government have resigned, there is no alternative who is supported by the bulk of the parliamentary party.
Moderate and Remain-supporting Conservative MPs do not want a destabilising leadership contest that could result in an arch Brexiteer taking over and leading us out of the EU without a deal.
■ But what then – she still doesn’t have enough support to get her deal through Parliament?
It is likely there will be a vote in Parliament in December.
That may be where Theresa May’s leadership and her plan for Brexit face the greatest test.
At the moment, she appears to have no chance of getting the approval of MPs.
She has no majority in Parliament, which is why she has needed the support of Ireland’s unionist DUP party.
However, the DUP has publicly spoken out against her plan, as have many of her own MPs. Labour has also categorically said it will vote
against the deal, as have Plaid’s MPs. Scotland’s SNP has also criticised it.
Some have speculated that Theresa May will be able to pressure enough MPs to back her plan as they will fear the alternatives more.
Brexiteers fear a second referendum; remainers fear a no-deal Brexit; Tories and DUP fear a Corbyn government; May’s deal offers a way out of all of those.
However, after the anger expressed in Parliament, it is far from clear if that will be true. ■ If her plan doesn’t get through Parliament, what then?
You’d need a crystal ball for that one. A new Tory leader? A no-deal Brexit, perhaps?
Technically, the government would have up to 21 days to put forward a new plan. If that was rejected, it would have to try to get Brussels to agree to put off our departure from the EU while a new deal was agreed.
Or we’d crash out without a deal. Many believe there could also be a general election at this point. ■ And if she does succeed how would it work then?
If the deal passes through Parliament, it would then have to win the backing of the European Parliament.
More than 50% of MEPs would need to support it. It would also need the formal approval of EU leaders on the EU council.
Twenty out of the 27 nations would have to support it (representing at least 65% of the population of the EU). ■ And after March 29 next year?
The UK and EU have also published a seven-page document setting out what they see as their aim for the future.
It’s only a broad outline.
But it talks about a “a free trade area and deep co-operation on goods, with zero tariffs and quotas”.
There would be “ambitious customs arrangements” that “build on” the arrangements in the withdrawal agreement.
The two sides say they want this
new arrangement to solve the Irish border problem, removing the need for that troublesome backstop. ■ How will history judge May?
If May’s position becomes untenable in the coming days, historians will ask not why she was brought down, but how she survived so long.
If a “meaningful vote” on the Brexit deal is held and lost – or if there is no prospect of the Withdrawal Agreement getting on the statute book – she will have failed.
And either of those look like highly likely possibilities.
Yet if they don’t come to pass, she will have confounded her critics and written a different future for herself and the UK.
Whether the Conservative Party would survive it as it is today is another question.