Where do the Swans stand after a week best forgotten?
GRAHAM Potter called it a bad week, Leroy Fer referred to it as a terrible week. Whatever way you look at it, last week was not a good week for Swansea City.
Having headed into the last international break on a run of three wins from four, Swansea now find themselves having lost four of their last five.
They are now 13th in the table, the statistic that will matter most come the end of the campaign, but how are Swansea actually stacking up in the Championship when you crunch the numbers?
Where are they excelling, and is there one key area that stands out in contributing to their current position? Here, we take a look.
Passing stats, the return of an on-field identity - The good
While Swansea did move away from their passing style a little in defeat at Derby, for the most part where have been plenty of positive signs of a return to a familiar and recognisable style of play with Potter and this squad.
Following the win over Bolton, Sky Sports showed a statistic that had the Swans leading the way in a number of passing statistics that signalled an approach not too dissimilar from that which had gone before under the likes of Roberto Martinez and Brendan Rodgers.
It has been an aspect of play that has been warmly praised by a majority of Swansea fans during these early stages of Potter’s reign.
Even after a run of three defeats, WhoScored have the Swans averaging 452 short passes a game, the highest number in the second tier.
Rotherham, by contrast, have the least with just 203. Only Leeds, Norwich, Brentford and Derby join the Swans in having a mean tally of over 400. They also have the greatest passing accuracy over those short passes and are in the top five when it comes to the fewest bad or heavy touches in the division, although interestingly they are the third worst side in the Championship when it comes to being robbed of the ball.
Swansea’s overall pass completion rate of 81.5 per cent is currently the best in the division, with only Aston Villa able to reach a figure of 80 per cent or higher.
They had led the way when it came to average share of possession, but they dropped to sixth with a figure of 53.7 per cent after ceding the ball to Derby for large tranches of the defeat at Pride Park.
Conversely, Swansea are bottom of the pile when it comes to long balls played per game, as the average just 61. The days of ‘the Swansea Way’ are probably behind us, but the figures show this is a manner of playing that is familiar to anyone who was watched the Swans over the past decade or so.
Chances created and finished - The bad
While Swansea’s style of play has been attractive, many will point out that is it points rather than possession that SWANSEA City star Daniel James is set to undergo a scan on the hamstring injury which ended his game prematurely at Derby.
The 21-year-old Wales international was forced off during the closing stages of the defeat at Pride Park after making a surging run out of defence.
But he pulled up as he reached the final third, and was helped off the field after receiving treatment.
James has been in fine form this season, with his pace causing headaches for Championship defences and Swansea manager Graham Potter will be hoping the problem is not serious.
“Dan just felt his hamstring,” Potter had said after the game at the weekend.
“He has had problems before he is a sprinter - but it was more that it didn’t feel right than anything.”
The Swans travel to Brentford on the weekend and are also waiting on the fitness of midfielder Tom Carroll, who has been hit by niggling groin and hip problems that have kept him sidelined since the win over Blackburn at the end of October.
matter and if there is one key area that needs improvement is on the ability to make the most of that possession and good play.
While the Swans lead the way in many of those previously mentioned passing parameters, they have just the 16th highest number of shots on goal in the second tier.
They are 17th when it comes to shots on target during a game, currently average 3.8, while their tally of 22 goals is the 19th-best tally in the 24-team league.
They are 15th for total shots with 243 across 20 games, and their expected goals position prior to the weekend had been 14th out of 24.
Interestingly, these areas are the one which most closely mirror Swansea’s ultimate league position and that correlation suggests it is that lack of a clinical edge in the final third, both when it comes to creation and conversion of chances, that is proving the most significant factor in where Potter’s men are at the moment.
They are having more than enough ball, but they have not yet managed to consistently make the most of it. If Swansea can address this aspect of their game then there is every reason to expect tangible improvements and rewards to follow.
As if to illustrate the point, Swansea’s second top-scorer after Oli McBurnie is own goals after Fikayo Tomori put through his own net at the weekend.
Defensive record - The ugly side of the game
Given the concern at Swansea’s selling off of Alfie Mawson, Kyle Bartley, Federico Fernandez and Jordi Amat over the summer, their ability to keep other sides out had been among the most impressive aspects of the season to date.
Shipping eight goals in a week has impact that somewhat, but Swansea remain joint-third when it comes to ranking the most stingy defence in the second tier.
Only Leeds and Middlesbrough have let in fewer goals than the 21 the Swans and Nottingham Forest have let in.
Away from home only Boro can boast a better record than the eight Swansea have left in over 10 games on their travels.
Yet that has not necessarily come out of Swansea being particularly robust or strong-armed in their rearguard set-up.
Indeed, Swansea have actually conceded the fewest fouls in the division, yet only four sides allow fewer shots per game than Potter’s men.
In many areas they are firmly in mid-table. For example, they are 11th in the Championship in successful tackles, 10th in interceptions, 10th in cards received, 10th in opponents caught offside and 12th in saves made.
That may not sound that impressive, but it has translated into one of the best defensive records in the Championship and suggests an attitude and spirit that has sometimes been lacking in recent years.
“I think your defensive work always tells you a lot about the character of a team,” Potter had said recently.
“I don’t want to speak too soon or jinx anything but I think if you look at our defensive record then you can see this is a team that fights hard for each other and has a real spirit and togetherness.
“Defending is not just about the back four and your keeper, it is about everyone doing their bit in different areas of the field and I have been pleased with what I have seen.
“We can still improve there, for sure, but teams do not tend to go too far unless they have a good attitude towards defending and helping each other.”
The last week may not have been great on the goals conceded front, but defensive performances have certainly been a positive for much of this season to date.
Individual pacesetters
Some of the Swans players have stood out as individuals within certain statistical fields too.
Mike van der Hoorn is in the Championship’s top five when it comes to clearances, While Joe Rodon and Tom Carroll are in the division’s top 10 players when it comes to pass accuracy.
Until the weekend Bersant Celina had been in the top three for key passes made, as well as the top two for successful dribbles, the latter behind Aston Villa’s Jack Grealish, while McBurnie is among the 10 Championship players to have been fouled the most.
Conclusions
As the saying goes there are lies, damned lies and statistics and no amount of data and information will be enough to convince observers to any greater extent than what they see with their own eyes.
But it is intriguing that two elements of Swansea’s game are in pretty rude health. Both their passing success and defensive efficiency pass muster with anything in the Championship.
Ultimately it is that crucial final third which is proving a defining characteristic to this point in the campaign, which should come as no surprise given the turnover of players this season.
Still, it will prove a point of frustration for players, staff and fans alike because if you were to solely look at Swansea’s possession and defensive stats you would expect to see a side in the upper reaches of the table rather than in the middle rungs.
More than half the season remains and there is plenty of time to develop that clinical, ruthless streak which could make the difference. Indeed, that is one conclusion that the statistics and the evidence on the field would both tell you.
There is still much work to do, but a step forward in that area could potentially make a huge difference to how the season ultimately pans out.