General election only way to break Brexit deadlock

Former Welsh Government Counsel General and Pontypridd AM Mick Antoniw believes a general election is inveitable – however Parliament votes next week on Theresa May’s Brexit deal...

AS THE scale of the constitutional crisis in Parliament deepens, politicians and legal experts are desperately scrambling for solutions.

The public are becoming ever more confused and frustrated and it becomes clearer, day by day, that the only solution is to let the people take the final decision.

Not by a so-called and ill-defined “people’s vote”, but by the only vote that can create a new legitimate mandate – a general election.

Theresa May’s plan has little chance of being supported in Parliament. She has no majority and no mandate. She is only able to cling on to power with the support of the DUP and even they, despite the prospect of further cash incentives, are set to abandon her.

Her plan has failed to win the support of Tory Remainers and Brexiteers alike and further resignations from ministers jumping ship simply underline that she cannot look to her own benches for a way out.

Her draft plan is likely to take the same route. It is difficult to imagine a more unsuccessful and ill-fated agreement.

If all this wasn’t enough, MPs found the Government to be in contempt of Parliament as a result of its failure to produce its full Brexit legal advice, contrary to a parliamentary vote.

In constitutional terms the Government is paralysed, with neither the competence nor capacity to break the deadlock. Constitutional government in the UK is rapidly grinding to a halt.

The Government, campaigners say, will not call a general election and Parliament will not pass a vote of no confidence, so the option of a “people’s vote” is increasingly promoted as the solution.

Regrettably, in my view it is a false hope. A second referendum would require legislation which would have to pass through both Houses of Parliament and then be referred for consultation with the Electoral Commission.

While Parliament has previously passed emergency legislation in a matter of days, this is very different.

Any attempt to rush through such a major constitutional step, bypassing the normal checks and balances, would undermine its legitimacy and been seen by many as a parliamentary coup rather than a legitimate referendum.

It is essential that whatever happens has legitimacy in the eyes of the public.

A parliamentary vote for another referendum would not be binding and is unlikely to succeed without government support. Even if it did, it would be tantamount to a vote of no confidence in Mrs May’s premiership, leading to either a Conservative leadership challenge or a general election.

Even if there were to be a “people’s vote”, logistically it would at best take up to six months to organise. And that would only be the start of the problem.

What would the vote be about? Would it be to accept the deal or to renegotiate or to revert to the status quo of EU membership? What would the question be and how many response options, two or three? Should remaining in the EU be on the paper? Should there be an explicit hard Brexit option? Should the franchise be extended to 16-year-olds?

All referenda are advisory under the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000. A referendum could not be otherwise without undermining parliamentary sovereignty, so how does all this in any event, resolve the problem of a government without a majority?

It is difficult to see any resolution without a general election. This is not without its own problems. If Labour were to win and Jeremy Corbyn became prime minister with a working majority, outright or by coalition, how could the issue of Brexit be resolved legitimately?

A general election would have to be fought by Labour on the basis of a new deal with Europe which protects free trade, investment and workers’ rights as well as a formula for the free movement of workers. Labour’s manifesto would have to offer the promise of a ratification of any deal and an extension of the franchise to 16-year-olds.

Renegotiation and preparation for a vote would take at least six to nine months. Transition would have to be agreed with the EU, although this is unlikely to be refused. At the end of the transition period the Government would have to put its deal to the people for a ratification vote rather than a traditional referendum.

People would know exactly what they were ratifying and what they would get if they voted for the deal. If the deal was rejected, the default would have to be to withdraw the Article 50 notice and remain in the European Union.

I believe that as people think through the complexities and impracticalities of a “people’s vote”, a general election will increasingly become accepted as the only way to give the people a real choice; the only legitimate way of breaking through parliamentary inertia; and the only means of finally bringing this sad constitutional saga to an end.

I suspect we will be having one sooner rather than later.

■ Mick Antoniw is the Labour AM for Pontypridd and a former Counsel General for the Welsh Government

‘As people think through the complexities and impracticalities of a ‘people’s vote’, a general election will increasingly become accepted as the only way to give the people a real choice

– MICK ANTONIW’