The scene is set for fierce Brexit battle
THE Government suffered the embarrassment of being found in contempt of Parliament yesterday for refusing to publish its Brexit legal advice in full.
This was a powerful reminder of the vulnerability of Theresa May and her administration – and it raises further questions about how she can hope to get her widely derided Withdrawal Agreement through the Commons on December 11.
Unless Opposition parties come to her rescue, a combination of Tory rebels and DUP MPs can defeat the legislation.
But a further government defeat yesterday evening may have the ultimate effect of keeping the UK in a close relationship with the EU.
MPs backed an amendment by pro-EU Conservative MP Dominic Grieve intended to empower Parliament to amend future Brexit legislation. This raises the possibility that if MPs reject Mrs May’s deal in the “meaningful vote” next week amendments will be laid which could pave the way to a second referendum or the UK pursuing Norway-style membership of the European Economic Area or a suspension of Article 50.
Many people who are frightened of what a no-deal Brexit would mean for Wales will hope that the dramatic events in the Commons mean that the risk of such a departure from the EU has been significantly reduced.
Brexiteers will resist any attempt by pro-EU MPs to seize control of the agenda and there is the potential for weeks of constitutional battle and political chaos.
Mrs May will use the days ahead to tell her own eurosceptic MPs and the DUP that her deal represents the best way of ensuring that Brexit actually happens and that they would find the alternatives that could be passed if they vote it down even more offensive.
If the PM can somehow engineer a political triumph out of what looks like a crisis she could be remembered as not just an extraordinary political survivor but a master tactician as well. However, it is deeply, deeply unsettling for a government to be found in contempt in Parliament and the willingness of her own MPs and supposed allies to rebel will leave her feeling especially isolated.
Her public ordeal will inspire sympathy but the greatest concern must be for workers whose livelihoods will be endangered by a botched Brexit. Ensuring a prosperous future for families must be a higher priority than satisfying the demands of political factions.