Christmas spirit won’t bridge the divisions over M4 relief road
WALES has become a divided nation on opposing sides of a major decision for our country. There are arguments at dinners, in the pub and in offices – I’ve taken part in all three.
At a governance level there is apparently a split in the cabinet, with both sides facing a parliamentary decision and a revolt by their own party members giving no voting clarity.
As I wouldn’t impose any more about Brexit on you, this division must refer to the Welsh Government’s controversial proposed new-build M4 motorway section (called the Black Route) around Newport; but neither Theresa May nor Carwyn Jones will have it easy next week.
It is the First Minister who has to sign the orders for the M4 planning consent. However this is only the start of the process. The financial approval has to be given by Mark Drakeford, the Finance Minister, who has not exactly been supportive of the scheme.
Following any approval at that point are possible judicial review applications by environmental groups and the Future Generations Commissioner.
Environment versus the economy leads the dichotomy facing the new M4.
The environmental argument revolves around protecting some of the oldest wetlands in Europe.
The economic case, supported by the CBI representing large manufacturing, commercial and logistics companies, is based upon free-flowing transport access (by road), with reduced journey times between south Wales and its English and wider European markets.
Both sides present a clear rationale.
The dilemma is how to provide one without adversely affecting the other.
But Welsh business is also split, with the FSB believing there are other transport projects, bettersuited to its members, on which £1.5bn could be spent.
Disagreement among transport economists about the traffic growth rates (fundamental to constructing all infrastructure) over the 30-year evaluation period gives uncertainty about the future road capacity required; and future-proofing that capacity may be more in the hands of autonomous cars on motorways than on lengths of tarmac.
One claim is that the new M4 infrastructure will reduce congestion by allowing cars to move more speedily.
But how does this fit into the Government’s imminent decision to retain a 50mph speed limit on certain motorways and trunk roads to improve air quality?
And it does not concur with research since the 1970s which indicates that as road infrastructure capacity increases so does car usage – there being a perception that the big new road can now cope. All too often we have seen new capacity used up very quickly.
West Country estate agents have also suggested an increase in traffic (resulting from abolishing Severn crossing tolls) derived from Bristol employees living in Monmouthshire, where house prices are 40% cheaper and so increase their disposable income.
This might also reflect government evidence to the M4 public inquiry which showed considerable economic benefits for Cardiff with its buoyant economy, Bristol and south Gloucestershire, and Newport – which deserves the benefits.
Meanwhile Blaenau Gwent, Merthyr, Torfaen (areas of Wales’ lowest GDP per head), Bridgend, Swansea and west Wales get little or no economic growth from this motorway.
A serious split, where one might question Welsh Government investment giving benefits to wealthy areas of England.
The M4 decision should be preceded by considering longer trains with more passenger capacity already being introduced between Cardiff and Bristol; comparison of fares and car costs; and train giving the faster route between the two cities.
Future demand increases should then be met by Transport for Wales and the new Greater Western rail franchise providing further capacity along the Main Line and across the border.
The country is also split between south-east Wales and everywhere else in the north, the west and the Canolbarth.
It is the “opportunity cost” of constructing the M4 Black Route, originally estimated at £930m and now costed at £1.5bn (£2bn by completion), where those funds could have alternative uses.
North Wales would argue for the A55 improvements, the third Pont Menai to Ynys Mon and electrifying the north Wales railway line; the Canolbarth for completing the A465 Heads of the Valleys Road and an Aberystwyth to Carmarthen rail reopening; the south-west for an improved A40 trunk road and improved rail services investment.
Even in the south-east the opportunity cost could mean extending the Valley Lines Metro to Barry and Penarth, or even completing the current plan,
The split in the country is not likely to go away, whatever action is taken by Carwyn Jones or Theresa May next week.
And the peace and goodwill of Christmas is unlikely to bring both sides together.
■ Professor Stuart Cole CBE is Emeritus Professor of Transport (Economics and Policy) at the University of South Wales.