A crisis that could have been avoided

JUST as Theresa May had stamped on the notion she might go for an early election, Downing St dismissed the idea the Prime Minister would postpone the “meaningful vote” on the Brexit deal she has negotiated with the EU.

But yesterday morning it became clear that was exactly what she planned to do.

Last week it was said that figures including Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns were warning against putting the deal to a vote if a crushing defeat looked likely.

With today’s vote looming, it appears the PM bowed to such counsel and decided not to risk a Tory rebellion and a rejection of the deal so profound it would have plunged her premiership into an immediate crisis.

The decision to defer the vote has not stopped talk of Labour holding a no-confidence vote but the Tory leader aims to meet EU leaders and come back with assurances which will enable her MPs to back the deal.

The depth of opposition in her own ranks and among the DUP MPs, on whom her Government depends to stay in power, is such that it is hard to envisage the EU granting a truly game-changing concession that would win their support for the Withdrawal Agreement.

With the resilience for which she is now famed, she will soldier on, and doubtless she will tell her EU counterparts that they either make a significant move or risk a disruptive no-deal exit. Back in the Commons, there is strong opposition to a no-deal exit on March 29 but it is far from clear how MPs will act to avoid this if the PM’s plan sinks into even deeper disarray.

Advocates of a second referendum argue that Labour should grasp the opportunity to put the country on the road to a “people’s vote” but the party leadership has made no secret that its top desire is another election.

Mrs May knows the extent of the divisions among the Opposition and pro-EU MPs, and there are clear differences among Tory Brexiteers. She embarks on her European travels knowing that nobody else has negotiated a Brexit plan with the EU, and she may well doubt that her critics will unite around an alternative way forward.

But there is no denying that the scenes in Westminster yesterday looked chaotic. Many of the dilemmas that her Withdrawal Agreement seeks to address were apparent long before the 2016 referendum vote, and it is unfortunate this crisis was not avoided.