Labour election support in Wales at its lowest ever, ‘truly historic’ poll reveals
SUPPORT for Labour in Wales at a General Election would be its “lowest ever” at just 22% amid substantial gains for the Tories, according to details of a new poll.
The results were yesterday described as “truly historic” because they show the lowest Labour general election support ever recorded in any Welsh poll, according to Professor Roger Awan-Scully, of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre.
And the poll also suggests a limited bounce in support for new Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
When it comes to the Assembly elections, Labour’s support is predicted to fall below 20% – another first in any of the equivalent Welsh polls.
Since the last poll in May, Boris Johnson has taken over the Conservative Party leadership and entered No.10 and the Liberal Democrats have a new leader in Jo Swinson.
The latest poll suggests Labour would take 18 seats (down 10), the Conservatives 16 (currently seven), Plaid four (no change), and Lib Dems two (both gains). These figures for Labour would be the first time the party had not won a majority of Welsh seats in a general election since December 1918.
Prof Awan-Scully described the results as “wholly unprecedented”.
He said: “The poll shows the extent to which the dominance of the two largest parties has declined in recent months – this is the second poll in a row where the combined Conservative and Labour vote share is below 50%. In some senses the results of the poll are truly historic. The most obvious concerns Labour’s support – this is the lowest Labour general election support ever recorded in any Welsh poll.
“Meanwhile, our new poll gives the Conservatives a lead in Wales for the first time since the opening two polls of the 2017 general election campaign, while for the Liberal Democrats, this is their best result in a Welsh poll since the early days of the coalition government in 2010. And such is the dispersal of support across the largest five parties that Plaid Cymru see their support up two points, to a level not far short of an historic high in Westminster support for the party, yet are actually in fifth place”.
In most cases, said Prof AwanScully,
the majority of the seats to change hands would be won by the Tories directly from Labour.
The poll projects the Tories to take Alyn and Deeside (currently Mark Tami), Bridgend (Madeline Moon), Cardiff North (Anna McMorrin), Clwyd South (Susan Elan Jones), Delyn (David Hanson), Gower (Tonia Antoniazzi), Newport West (Ruth Jones), Vale of Clwyd (Chris Ruane), and Wrexham (Ian Lucas) from Labour.
Elsewhere, the Lib Dems would take Brecon and Radnorshire – the by-election is being held on Thursday – and Ceredigion (currently represented by Plaid’s Ben Lake). And, despite losing Ceredigion, Plaid would gain Ynys Mon from Labour – a seat held by Albert Owen.
But he warned that because of the turbulent nature of politics at the moment predictions were “very hazardous”.
In terms of the next Assembly elections, Prof Awan-Scully said: “This is the first Welsh poll ever to show Plaid Cymru in the lead for the Assembly constituency vote, while Labour support is again at an unprecedented low. Meanwhile, we see support for the Conservatives and Brexit Party apparently edge upwards, and the Liberal Democrats continuing to head back towards the category of a major party.”
The poll projects Labour to lose 11 constituency seats:
■ Plaid Cymru is projected to gain Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Cardiff West, Llanelli and Neath;
■ the Conservatives are projected to gain Cardiff North, Gower, Vale of Clwyd, Vale of Glamorgan and Wrexham; and
■ the Lib Dems are projected to gain Cardiff Central.
Prof Awan-Scully continued: “The new poll projects Plaid Cymru to gain Aberconwy from the Conservatives. Labour’s projected 16 constituency seats would be by far their worst-ever performance at a National Assembly election – they have never thus far failed to win a clear majority of constituency seats in the chamber.”
He explained: “This new poll projects the National Assembly heading into uncharted waters – with no party winning even one third of the seats in the chamber; the only two-party majority coalition available being one between the two largest parties, Labour and Plaid, and the Liberal Democrats apparently now on course to
re-emerge as a significant force in the Assembly.
“But in these current febrile political times we should be even more cautious than usual about projecting current opinion poll results into future political outcomes”.
■ YouGov interviewed a nationally representative sample of 1,071 adults in Wales.