‘Westminster isn’t the place to make decisions about Wales’
In his latest Martin Shipton Meets podcast, our chief reporter talks with Jonathan Edwards, who has been the Plaid Cymru MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr since 2010, about Brexit and Welsh independence.
BREXIT could lead to a situation where people are faced with a stark choice between Welsh independence and the end of devolution, a Plaid Cymru MP has warned.
Jonathan Edwards says Brexit has unleashed anger which is likely to be turned against the National Assembly.
Asked what impact Brexit will have on Plaid Cymru’s core cause of Welsh independence, Mr Edwards said: “I think people are watching the complete shambles down here in Westminster and coming to the conclusion that perhaps this place isn’t the best place to make decisions in the interests of Welsh communities. Once you come to that conclusion, it’s very simple to start joining the dots towards thinking we need at least a huge realignment of the British state towards some kind of confederal or federal model. Or towards the ultimate step which would be towards independence.
“They had a clear choice here in Westminster after the referendum result in terms of the British constitution: ‘right then, now we’re leaving these very important European frameworks, we’re going to have to create British state-wide frameworks. What are we going to do?’
“Are they going to do it on the basis of the ‘partnership of equals’ narrative that they have, with Wales an equal partner in the British state, or Scotland an equal partner in the British state?
“Are they going to create frameworks whereby the four constituent parts of the British state are on the same level?
“Or are they going to go for direct Westminster control? And they’ve gone for direct Westminster control. And the Labour Party of Wales has been complicit in that as well, returning a range of powers, albeit temporarily. But if anyone thinks those powers are going to come back, I think it’s going to be a bit of a tough fight.
“The Westminster parties – and Labour politicians down here are the worst – believe that all these big decisions should be made in Westminster. That places our constitutional status, and the powers we’ve already got, under huge threat. We’ve seen it with the Shared Prosperity Fund. It leaves a settlement that has been endorsed in two referenda in Wales completely vulnerable.
“But I also think it leaves Wales as a country in a position where we’re going to be reliant on Westminster to make decisions for us. I think people then have to make a blatant decision.
“I can easily see over the next 10 to 15 years in Wales ... the whole Brexit thing has been driven by anger. There is no interest for these people to pacify that. Where are they going to channel the anger? Well I can see it going towards our democratic institutions in Wales – that’s where they are going to be channelling the anger next, especially the right of the political spectrum.
“So you’re in a situation where the middle ground, the consensus that has run relatively smoothly in a Welsh context since the 1997 referendum, is under threat. I think devolution is under attack, and I think the middle ground is evaporating in all sorts of spheres – and you’re either going to be in a situation where the Assembly is abolished and you’re in the complete control of Westminster, or independence. And I think the lack of leadership from the Labour Party in Wales, the governing party, is making that scenario far more likely.”
Asked where Brexit was going, Mr Edwards said: “The debate within the Tory party is far divorced from political reality. I think there’s going to be a clash between reality and the narrative that’s been down here [in Westminster] over the last few weeks.
“The situation hasn’t changed fundamentally. Boris Johnson will face exactly the same problems as Theresa May.
“How does he navigate his way through the House of Commons? There are three likely scenarios. Do the ERG and the DUP and enough Labour MPs just decide ‘we’ve got to get this out of the way’ and they vote for whatever, just to get anything through?
“If that doesn’t happen, then he’s faced with a simple choice. Does he go for a general election, which is full of critical risks for him, because the Brexit Party, unless he comes to some arrangement with them, would eviscerate the Conservative vote. If he can’t come to some arrangement with the Brexit Party, then a final say referendum is the only way out of it.
“I don’t think an election solves anything, to be perfectly honest with you. Getting something through based on the former Prime Minister’s deal doesn’t really solve a problem because all the big decisions will be taken during the implementation period. And the British state will be in a position of extreme weakness because you’d have left the EU and then be a direct competitor. And the EU is far more powerful – they’ve got all the cards. I think the British state will find itself in a very vulnerable situation, as would Welsh communities,
“Or then does he go to the people – and I think this is the only way out of this – and say ‘Listen, this is what Brexit actually means. It’s far divorced from what you were told during the referendum. What do you want to do? Do you actually want to go ahead with this, or do you want to stick to the deal you’ve got at the moment,”
When it was put to Mr Edwards that it was difficult to imagine Mr Johnson agreeing to a referendum, he said: “I think it comes down to one of two things. Politically, if he can do a deal with the Brexit Party then I can see why an election might be enticing, because the Labour Party are in a complete shambolic state. They’re on 20% in the polls, I think the Corbyn fad has gone. I think they would be extremely exposed in any general election.
“And if he does a deal with Farage, or an understanding, or whatever they come to, you’ve then got a position where you’ve got a realigned right which is on 40% in the polls and in a far stronger position. If he can’t, I can’t see somebody who’s spent his whole life trying to get [to 10 Downing Street] willing to risk it all away on an election – even someone with the self-assurance, some would say arrogance, of Mr Johnson. I find it difficult to believe he would risk it all in an election where the Brexit Party are a huge threat.
“If they’re still competing with the Tory party, they’ll hurt the Tory party far more than the Labour Party.”