Pact hints at future political alliances

BY-ELECTIONS sometimes have more than a local significance, and that is certainly true of today’s election in Brecon & Radnorshire.

It is the first electoral test for Boris Johnson since he became Prime Minister eight days ago.

We shall soon learn if there has been anything approximating to a so-called “Boris bounce” in the constituency.

The fact that Mr Johnson did not undertake a walkabout when he was in the area on Tuesday probably indicates that the Conservative Party is not confident about holding it.

No political leader wants to be associated with failure, especially when they are new to the role.

If, as seems most likely, the seat is won by the Liberal Democrats, the Conservatives will have as an excuse the reason why the by-election

is taking place at all.

Chris Davies was ejected from his seat after more than 10,000 people signed a petition to remove him as their MP after he pleaded guilty to forging expense claims.

His decision to make false invoices to claim back £700 he had spent on photographs for his office was ill-judged and reckless.

What was more bizarre was the decision of the Conservative Party to take no action against him, before or after his convictions, and of local Tories to re-select him as their candidate in the by-election.

After a time when the Brexit Party was expecting to come second today, it seems they have now modified their expectations and expect Mr Davies to be the runnerup. It’s believed there may have been a limited Boris bounce, but probably not enough to bring victory.

Some are suggesting that the decisions of both Plaid Cymru and the Green Party not to field candidates, but to advise their supporters to back the Liberal Democrat candidate in a Remain pact, could be crucial to the result.

If Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds is elected as the new MP, it will be a major boost for her party. It will also be of potentially crucial significance to the balance of the House of Commons, where Mr Johnson’s working majority including the DUP’s 10 MPs will be reduced to just one.

This could pose problems for the new Prime Minister in his drive to deliver a Brexit “do or die” by October 31.

Meanwhile all parties will doubtless consider the impact of the Plaid/Green/Lib Dem pact when considering future possible alliances.