A divided opposition leaves the PM holding the upper hand
With Parliament set to resume briefly next week before another recess, chief reporter Martin Shipton asks whether the opposition parties or Boris Johnson hold the upper hand
ASNAP poll from YouGov suggested that a clear majority of voters were against Boris Johnson’s decision to prorogue Parliament.
That may have made some Conservative MPs bolder in their determination to stop a no-deal Brexit by voting against the Government.
On Tuesday, after meeting opposition leaders, Jeremy Corbyn decided not to press for a vote of no confidence, realising that he could not count on an unholy alliance of opposition MPs and rebel Tories to put him into Downing Street, even for the brief period required to stop nodeal, negotiate an extension to Article 50 with the EU, and set in motion a general election.
Instead, the opposition alliance has decided to pursue a legislative course, aiming to pass a law that would block no-deal.
Mr Johnson quickly parried with the nuclear option. His decision to prorogue Parliament gives the opposition just four working days to seize control of the Commons timetable and pass the required law.
Opinions differ as to whether that will be possible in the short time available.
While the opposition will be looked on favourably by Speaker John Bercow – who sees his mission as the defender of Parliament against an overbearing executive he believes to be acting outrageously – the Bill will also have to be passed by the House of Lords, where a group of ardent Brexiteers will be ready to eat up time with a succession of filibustering speeches.
Some believe it will still be possible to get the Bill through despite that.
But then what?
The opposition does not, it seems, have a coherent, collective plan. If they did, they would be able to sweep Boris Johnson away by legislating for another referendum which polls suggest Remain would win.
Instead, there is no agreement between them on what comes next.
Mr Johnson, on the other hand, has a clear plan. His aim is a general election which he will seek to frame as the People against Parliament.
He would like to be able to push this narrative whether the UK is inside or outside the EU at the time the election is held. Ideally, from his point of view, we would already be out. That would totally neutralise the Brexit Party, whose sole aim would have been achieved – unless, of course, the EU unexpectedly came to the rescue by getting rid of the backstop or agreeing to a form of words that fudged the backstop while keeping the DUP on board. The Brexit Party wouldn’t like such a deal because it would entail some kind of customs arrangement which would be likely to curtail the UK’s ability to strike independent trade deals across the world.
In such circumstances the Brexit Party would remain a significant electoral force, able to take votes off the Tories and potentially hand seats to Labour or the Liberal Democrats in England.
But after all its leaders have said, it’s difficult to imagine the EU being prepared to compromise on the backstop.
Mr Johnson will nevertheless fancy his chances in an election when he is pitched against Jeremy Corbyn.
Mr Corbyn’s fence sitting has lost him a lot of support and he is more likely than not to prove a liability to his party in an election campaign.
Under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, which insists that a general election held part way through a term can only be called with the consent of a two thirds majority in the Commons, Labour could deprive Mr Johnson of an election.
But the party’s official policy is to seek a general election, and it would probably damage Labour’s support if it refused to agree to one.
MPs themselves are no more sure about how things will play out than the rest of us.
Cardiff North MP Anna McMorrin, who has consistently supported a People’s Vote – a term we haven’t heard much of recently as the focus of Remainers has switched to stopping a no-deal Brexit – remains hopeful that a new referendum might still come about.
She said: “If a new deal is done with the EU, I will argue together with many other MPs that it should be put to the people.”
Ms McMorrin believes such a course would have a good chance of winning a majority in the present Parliament.
The only difficulty is that it doesn’t conform to her party leadership’s approach, for whom a general election must be held before any referendum.
Another pro-Remain politician – Plaid Cymru MP Jonathan Edwards – believes we could be in for a general election sooner than we think.
He said: “One scenario I see as very plausible is that if the opposition manages to seize control of the Parliamentary timetable next week, Johnson will immediately seek to dissolve Parliament and call a general election.
“He wants to maintain his strong man image in the eyes of his supporters, and losing Parliamentary votes is not the way to do that. Theresa May’s authority ebbed away as a result of it.”
Because of the divided nature of the opposition, it’s difficult to avoid the conclusion that Boris Johnson currently holds the upper hand.