Why revoking Article 50 is no longer seen as a step too far
As Britain apparently heads towards a general election, chief reporter Martin Shipton looks at how Brexit could provide more twists and turns
NOTHING should be taken for granted. While Boris Johnson insists that he doesn’t want a general election, we can safely assume that he means the opposite.
And when Jeremy Corbyn says he also wants an election, it’s by no means certain that the majority of his MPs agree with him.
Equally, the likes of Chuka Umunna and Anna Soubry, who left their respective parties to position themselves on the centre ground, probably don’t want an election because they’d like more time to rebuild their base.
The SNP, on the other hand, are keen for one to take place, because they’re likely to win a near clean sweep, as they did in 2015. They’d no doubt argue that it’s not a case of putting party before country, because for them the two entities are synonymous.
After all the complaints about Mr Johnson’s self-interested decision to prorogue Parliament, it’s now being suggested that opposition MPs with their rebel Tory allies could seize control of the Commons order paper and pass all the stages of a Bill blocking no-deal Brexit in a single day.
That would still leave some work to be done in the House of Lords, where it’s easier for old buffers intent on filibustering to make a nuisance of themselves. But the likelihood is that the Bill will get through if it’s allowed to.
For Mr Johnson may try to call a general election before the Bill has passed through both Houses, leaving no-deal Brexit as the default option.
However, because of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, he needs the support of two thirds of MPs to ensure an election can go ahead. Many Remain-supporting MPs may be reluctant to back such a plan unless the no-deal Bill is passed first.
The date when the election is held is also of significance. Downing Street sources were last night mooting Monday October 14, which would be a break from the longstanding
tradition of holding elections on Thursdays.
But it seems that under the loose arrangements that exist at Westminster, it would be possible for Mr Johnson to change the date later to suit himself.
What is surely absolutely essential is for no-deal to be legislated against and for a further extension of Article 50 to have been agreed by the EU before an election is called.
The opposition parties and rebel Conservatives have it within their power to ensure that is the case.
What programmes will the parties fight the election on? For the Conservatives and the Brexit Party, it will be about delivering Brexit. Will Mr Johnson seek to maintain the fiction that he can persuade the EU to ditch the backstop, or will he come out as a supporter of no-deal as his preferred option?
If he pursues the latter course, he will alienate those Tories and floating voters in the centre ground who are inclined to believe the negative stories about the impact of no-deal.
But he would be in a good position to do a deal with the Brexit Party, which could be left to take on Labour in seats the Tories would never have a chance of winning.
In Wales such a pact could involve the Conservatives not fielding candidates in some Valleys constituencies, for example.
The Remain position is more complicated and confused. In Wales, Plaid Cymru’s official line is moving towards revoking Article 50, although the idea of a referendum also hasn’t been discarded.
Revoking Article 50 – in other words withdrawing the UK’s notice to quit the EU – would in normal circumstances be regarded as a step too far. It entails repudiating the result of the 2016 referendum and not giving the people of Wales the opportunity to vote again in a further referendum. But according to the party’s Brexit spokeswoman Delyth Jewell it has legitimacy as a general election policy because it offers clarity in a way that Labour is unlikely to.
Plaid is in talks with the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, both of which parties may also be inclined to support revocation.
But while it’s easy to see the attraction of an election promise that sets up revoking Article 50 against the polar opposite of a no-deal Brexit, it’s more difficult to chart a course to where it comes seriously into play.
If Labour doesn’t support revocation – and it would be a major departure for it to do so – it’s difficult to envisage any post-election scenario where Brexit could be abandoned without a referendum.
For those on the Remain side, the chances of getting a referendum seem as precarious as ever. Once fighting a general election – which was incorporated into Labour’s Brexit strategy at last year’s party conference – the emphasis will switch to its commitment to a referendum with Remain on the ballot paper.
So far Mr Corbyn, with his eye on supporters who voted Leave, has resisted those who want him to turn Labour into an unequivocally Remain party. In an election campaign he would have to come off the fence, deciding how much he was prepared to alienate Leavers or Remainers. No wonder he will want to broaden the election campaign into more traditional territory. Labour will have a manifesto packed with policies aimed at the many not the few.
But while Mr Johnson will be offering electoral sweeteners, there’s no getting away from the fact that Brexit will dominate both the campaign and the coverage.
Other areas, important as they are, will take a back seat until Brexit is resolved one way or another.
And that need not be soon. If a general election results in another hung Parliament, we will be back to square one.