How plausible is a Remain pact at a general election?
With the Conservatives and the Brexit Party discussing a possible electoral pact, chief reporter Martin Shipton considers whether a Remain pact could also be forged
THERE’S no way of avoiding the fact that the coming general election will be the most bitter fought for many years.
Assuming that a last-minute deal isn’t pulled out of a bag, an election focussed on Brexit will almost certainly be held before the end of the year.
Let’s also assume that the EU grants an extension to allow an election to take place before time runs out to stop Brexit.
Is there a realistic chance of an electoral pact involving all the parties that want the UK to remain in the EU, or will we have to rely on the less reliable technique of tactical voting?
It certainly isn’t beyond the bounds of possibility that Boris Johnson will do a deal with Nigel Farage under which the Tories would stand down candidates in Labourheld seats they could never realistically stand a chance of winning, but where the Brexit Party would have a better chance of success. While there is a risk for the Conservatives that they could alienate a minority of supporters who aren’t as hostile towards the EU as the majority, it would certainly be to the Tories’ advantage not to have the pro-Brexit vote split.
In a worst case scenario from the point of view of Remain supporters, a pact between the pro-Brexit parties could deliver Mr Johnson a landslide victory against anti-Brexit parties who all still wanted to field candidates in every seat.
But could there be another way?
At the beginning of August, the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election saw Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds defeat former Tory MP Chris Davies after Plaid Cymru and the Green Party decided not to stand and asked their supporters to vote for Ms Dodds.
As Remain-supporting parties, they wanted her in the Commons for crucial votes instead of Mr Davies, a hard-line Brexiteer. The strategy was successful, and talks are going on between the three parties to see where the deal could be replicated at a general election in Wales. That’s fine as far as it goes, but most of the battles in Wales are between Labour and the Conservatives, with Plaid and the Greens on the fringes.
At the weekend, Blaenau Gwent Labour AM Alun Davies tweeted his disappointment at the news that the Liberal Democrats had selected councillor Rhys Taylor as their general election candidate for Cardiff North, where Mr Davies’ partner Anna McMorrin is the unequivocally pro-Remain Labour MP. Mr Davies tweeted: “This how to elect Tory MPs committed to a hard Brexit in marginal seats. Vote Lib Dem. Elect a Tory.”
When I spoke to Mr Taylor he accepted that Ms McMorrin had wholeheartedly supported the Remain cause, but pointed out that the same couldn’t be said of the Labour leadership. Rather generously, he said that if it was up to him, he would be happy to stand down in Cardiff North if the Labour Party’s commitment to Remain matched that of its local MP.
And there’s the rub. Labour’s current Brexit position was confirmed last week by its Shadow Justice Secretary Richard Burgon, who said a Labour government would seek to negotiate a new Brexit deal with the EU and then put it to voters in a new referendum with a recommendation to vote Remain.
Alun Davies described this as “playground, fantasy politics,” adding: “There is no way the EU is going to negotiate a new deal with a government that says it will campaign for voters to reject it.”
He said that at the election Labour should make a straightforward promise to hold a further referendum and support Remain: “I sympathise with Labour MPs who represent constituencies that voted Leave at the referendum in 2016. Blaenau Gwent had the biggest share of Leave votes in Wales. But you have to argue for what you believe to be right.”
The chance of Jeremy Corbyn and Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson entering any kind of electoral pact with each other is out of the question, said a source close to the People’s Vote campaign. “The politics of it wouldn’t work,” said the source. “Hundreds of seats are Tory-Labour marginals, and the Lib Dems aren’t going to stand down in hundreds of seats. The best shot we’ll have of defeating Boris Johnson and Brexit is with tactical voting.”