Plaid shouldn’t walk away from coalition
The latest YouGov poll shows the Conservatives snapping at Labour’s heels for top position after next year’s Senedd election. Where does that leave Plaid Cymru, asks chief reporter Martin Shipton
IT’S just over 15 months until the next Senedd election, and Plaid Cymru’s ambition to take charge of Wales is not going well.
Adam Price is a highly talented politician who brims with creative ideas and who wants what is good for Wales.
He has a plan that, if successful, could put him in the First Minister’s office in May 2021.
In fact, it’s a re-run of a plan that almost succeeded in 2016.
After every Senedd election, the first meeting of the new term sees the election of a First Minister.
In 2016 the first vote saw a tie between the incumbent candidate Carwyn Jones and Leanne Wood, who was Plaid’s leader at the time.
Plaid had come second in the election, and Mr Price persuaded the Conservative and Ukip groups to vote for Ms Wood to become First Minister.
Had Kirsty Williams, the Senedd’s sole remaining Liberal Democrat AM, voted for Ms Wood, the game would have been over, Mr Jones and Labour would have been out of office, and Plaid Cymru would have been able to form a minority government.
But Ms Williams voted for Mr Jones, and when it became clear that Plaid could not secure the extra vote it needed, the party backed down, reached a Budget deal with Labour, and allowed the normal state of things to resume.
As last month’s General Election showed, the Conservatives are riding high in terms of public support in Wales at present.
Boris Johnson promised to “Get Brexit Done”, and tomorrow we will depart from the EU, even if the future form of Brexit has yet to be determined.
Labour is also going through a difficult time, and the YouGov poll for Cardiff University and ITV Wales predicts it would win just 24 of the 60 Senedd seats if next year’s election were taking place now.
If Plaid, instead of the Conservatives, had put on extra support, Mr Price would be on course to go one better than Ms Wood four years ago.
But if the Conservatives, rather than Labour, come second in next year’s Senedd election, as currently seems likely, the Plaid dream will be over for another Senedd term.
Projections from the poll suggest that in addition to Labour’s 24, the Conservatives would win 22 seats, Plaid 13 and the Liberal Democrats 1.
The Conservatives would not countenance allowing Plaid to take over the government, and it is inconceivable that Plaid would become a junior partner in a coalition with the Tories.
Labour would, in such circumstances, almost certainly turn to Plaid and ask it to form another One Wales coalition, as it did in 2007.
That would be an outcome very far from the ambitions of Mr Price and his party, but it is a scenario they should contemplate seriously.
Of course, it can reasonably be argued that we are being premature in mooting such an election outcome.
Brexit, it will be suggested, could change everything, with people put out of work, prices going up and food shortages.
But it has to be remembered that, although we legally leave the EU tomorrow, we remain in the single market and customs union until the end of 2020.
The effects of a crash-out Brexit if trade negotiations go badly – as they may well do – will not become apparent until the end of the transitional period at that time. Those who blame Brexit for future economic woes are unlikely to be Tory voters, and people who have been persuaded to vote against their own interests don’t like admitting they were wrong.
In short, it’s difficult to imagine Mr Johnson’s Brexit honeymoon imploding as quickly as instinctive Remainers would like.
Of course, the election of a credible Labour leader to succeed Jeremy Corbyn could boost its level of support, but that wouldn’t necessarily be good news for Plaid Cymru.
Is it wrong to detect almost a note of desperation in Plaid’s reaction to the latest poll: “Plaid Cymru is the real alternative to a tired Labour government and an untrustworthy Tory party. With Adam Price as First Minister, Plaid Cymru will offer a new found hope to the people of Wales by rebuilding our communities, rejuvenating our public services and restoring people’s trust in democracy.
“This is a once in a generation chance to change the lives of the people of Wales for the better and Plaid Cymru stands ready to lead on to a new Wales in 15 months’ time.”
The underlying message seems to be: “Yes, Labour’s messed up, but the electorate is wrong to put its faith in the Tories. Vote for our wonderful leader. If you don’t, he’ll be gone and Plaid will have lost its chance of power for another generation.”
Mr Price has a passion to win and an unquenchable desire to lead the Welsh Government. But the electorate may not be prepared to back that in sufficient numbers. If they don’t, Mr Price and Plaid shouldn’t just walk away.
In many respects, Plaid and Labour appeal to the same kind of voters: people who see themselves as on the progressive left. If Labour is perceived as stale, the government it leads could innovate with the help of Mr Price and his ideas. In postBrexit Britain that could be more necessary than ever.