Points make prizes... our prediction on how figures will stack up as Six Nations progresses
THE quickest way for an astrologer to lose a star or three from his or her reputation would be for the said individual to have at go at predicting the Six Nations after a Rugby World Cup.
2008, anyone? Fewer than six months after failing to reach the knock-out stages of the global tournament in France, Wales were completing a championship Grand Slam, conceding only two tries under Shaun Edwards’ defence coaching. Mystic Meg wouldn’t have stood a chance. From nowhere, Wales became mentally and physically tougher, and seemingly fitter. It was remarkable to see.
Trek back four years earlier, when England went into the Six Nations as newly-crowned World Cup winners, only to lose their way and finish third in Europe’s annual round of Test jousting. In 2016, they reversed the process by going from World Cup flops to Six Nations Grand Slammers.
Strange things can happen every fourth year in the rugby cycle, then.
It’s one when new leaders tend to be brought in – four sides have fresh head coaches this time – and both short and long-term plans are put in place.
Nonetheless, every side will go into the 2020 championship with optimism, albeit that some will be more justified than others for having high hopes.
But how will it all pan out? We had a gaze in the crystal ball that’s lying around the office...
ROUND ONE
(with predicted match points)
Wales 5 v 0 Italy
Ireland 5 v 0 Scotland France 4 v 1 England
THE expectation is there will be flying starts for Wayne Pivac (Wales), Andy Farrell (Ireland) and Fabien Galthie (France) as they begin their stints as head coaches of their respective teams.
Pivac’s challenge will be to make the most of Warren Gatland’s legacy.
That means the emphasis is likely to be on evolution rather than revolution. Wales will want to play with more width, but they will also want to retain their strong forward base and miserly defence. Pivac has said it could take time for him and his coaches to develop Wales’ attack, but Italy first up in Cardiff presents an opportunity.
Fifteen months ago, Gatland suggested the back three was an area where Wales had scope to be stronger, but heading into this championship there appears almost an embarrassment of riches in those positions. When Liam Williams is fit, Pivac will have a selection headache.
Dan Biggar appears to have added to his game under Chris Boyd at Northampton, while the three scrum-halves in the Wales squad boast considerable talent.
It should all prove too much for Italy under new boss Franco Smith, and Wales may be able to mark Pivac’s first Test as their head coach with a bonus-point win.
Expect Ireland to do the same against Scotland.
The Scots haven’t won away against any of their old Five Nations rivals since 2010, while Farrell will hope to channel Leinster’s excellence into the Irish national side. Nor is being without Finn Russell going to help the Scots. In Paris, there’s a huge game, with England the visitors.
They were terrific against New Zealand at the World Cup, but they are missing the injured Billy Vunipola and have no like-for-like replacement at hand. Henry Slade and Jack Nowell are also missing and there’s the Saracens factor to consider – how will the salary-cap fun and games affect squad harmony?
Also, quite why Eddie Jones has omitted the big ball-carrying Alex Dombrandt from his Six Nations squad is a mystery Miss Marple might struggle to get to the bottom of.
While France have named a young Six Nations squad, they have some wonderful talent behind in the shape of Antoine Dupont, Virimi Vakatawa, Romain Ntamack, Teddy Thomas and Damian Penaud.
It could go wrong for them if one of their fly-halves fails to emerge as a general, but there’s also a reasonable chance it could go gloriously right.
Shaun Edwards will add a toughness and organisation to their defence, and the effect should be immediate. The Guardian related a nice tale from Shane Williams, with the ex-Wales wing saying how Edwards had spotted him dawdling at the first training session after he took over. “He yelled: ‘Get on the f ***** g front line’,” said Williams.
Short and sharp. No room for doubt.
“And you know what, the next time, I made damn sure I did,” added Williams.
Maybe, just maybe, France will see England off.
If that were to happen it would ignite the championship.
ROUND TWO
Ireland 4 v 1 Wales Scotland 1 v 4 England France 5 v 0 Italy
DUBLIN will be a test for Wales under new management. It would have been a test for Wales under their old management, come to think about it.
Ireland may have had a disappointing 2019, but Leinster are looking in outstanding shape and Ulster are in the Heineken Champions Cup quarter-finals, too. Theoretically, that should help Farrell, with winning players tending to be confident players.
What marked Gatland down as an exceptional coach was his ability to coax immense performances from players who hadn’t been part of consistently successful regional sides. “Their average PRO14 player transforms into a world-beater,” said Gordon D’Arcy of Wales last year.
In that sense, Wales, with their relatively small player pool, punched well above their weight under Gatland. Pivac’s challenge will be to replicate that success.
Ireland will miss Joe Schmidt, whatever his detractors now say.
But the probability is they’ll have too much for Wales at home.
England can expect the kitchen sink to head their way at Murrayfield, and victory would lift the Scots no end. But they are likely to find it beyond them, while France should dispatch Italy without too much fuss at Stade de France.
ROUND THREE Italy 1 v 4 Scotland Wales 4 v 1 France England 4 v 1 Ireland
SCOTLAND have won their last seven games against Italy and it would be a mild surprise if that run wasn’t extended to eight.
Maybe Gregor Townsend’s team will secure a bonus, maybe not.
There’s a potential humdinger in Cardiff when France are the visitors.
Wales will need to be wary. When the sides met at the World Cup, Les Bleus were the better side until Sebastien Vahaamahina stupidly elbowed his way to a red card. France played some sparkling rugby in the opening half that day with Vakatawa helping to send over Charles Ollivon for a try that doubled up as a work of art.
But, helped by Vahaamahina’s loss
of control, Wales were able to work their way back into the game and emerge as victors. Charles Bronson, Steve McQueen and Richard Attenborough were nowhere to be seen that day in Oita, but a great escape did unfold.
Taulupe Faletau’s return will help them in this championship, but it will be a challenge to replace not only the injured Jonathan Davies but also Tomas Francis.
The tighthead may not be back for the game with the French and the certainty is they will look to test the Welsh scrum.
Wales, then, need to make sure their set-piece is up to scratch.
But, in Cardiff they are a handful for anyone and they may prevail once more over opponents who haven’t won in the Welsh capital since 2010.
Elsewhere, there’s another intriguing date involving England, this time against Ireland at home.
Ireland are capable of winning anywhere in this tournament, so Twickenham will hold no fears for them.
But if England are at their best they should be good enough to make home advantage count.
ROUND FOUR
Ireland 5 v 0 Italy England 4 v 1 Wales Scotland 1 v 5 France
ITALY are unlikely to prevent Ireland giving them the steamroller treatment in Dublin, while England will want to avenge last year’s defeat by Wales in Cardiff.
There again, added motivation isn’t needed for an England-Wales fixture. Another huge achievement of Gatland’s was to remove the fear factor from visits to London.
Before he took over, Wales hadn’t won in 20 years at Twickenham. With him in charge they banked three wins in 10 visits there – no cause for a national holiday, fair enough, but more than respectable given the carnage of the previous two decades.
Pivac will want to ensure Wales continue to perform well in the fixture they enjoy winning the most.
A side with forwards of the calibre of Ken Owens, Alun Wyn Jones, Justin Tipuric and Faletau can be relied on to be competitive, but England have depth to spare and are especially dangerous in front of their own supporters.
A problem for them is they can have difficulty maintaining their performance level.
Rewind to South Africa beating them in the World Cup final, a week after England had beaten New Zealand in the last four, while Wales did a number on them in Cardiff last year after Eddie Jones’ team had started the Six Nations at a gallop.
England will likely start favourites and home advantage could prove decisive, but there’s usually little between the sides.
In the other game, France are capable of cutting loose against Scotland.
ROUND FIVE
Wales 5 v 1 Scotland Italy 0 v 5 England
France 4 v 1 Ireland
LET’S leave aside questions about the fairness or otherwise of so-called Super Saturday, when sides playing later in the day know what they have to do to potentially take the championship spoils.
Four Tests into the Pivac era, Wales should start to feel more comfortable with their new coach’s style and the expectation is they’ll be capable of putting Scotland away in a highscoring early game.
By then, too, England will have moved up the gears and should have enough about them to rout Italy in Rome.
It could all come down to France v Ireland in the final match.
The Irish have big-game players who know what it takes to deliver when it matters.
But it’s in Paris, in the spring and, if all has gone well, there’ll be expectation among the locals. There may not be a lot in it.
But this French team look to have big potential and the Shaun Edwards factor will make a huge difference.
This could be their year.