‘Perfect storm flooding may be worse than Ciara’
A“PERFECT storm” of torrential, persistent rain, strong winds and melting snow could leave hundreds of homes across the UK flooded this weekend, experts have warned.
Storm Dennis is forecast to batter large swathes of Wales, England, Scotland and Northern Ireland with 70mph winds and up to 140mm (5.5inches) of rain in some areas.
The Environment Agency (EA) said the flood impact from the weather system is likely to be worse than last weekend’s Storm Ciara due to rain falling on already saturated ground.
The Met Office has issued severe weather warnings, which include amber warnings stating that flooding could cause a danger to life, power cuts are expected and there is a good chance transport links will be impacted.
Met Office chief meteorologist Steve Willington said: “Following Storm Ciara last weekend and further spells of rain this week, the ground is already saturated in places. With Storm Dennis bringing further heavy and persistent rain over the weekend, there is a risk of significant impacts from flooding,
including damage to property and a danger to life from fast flowing floodwater.”
The Environment Agency (EA) said the flood impact from the weather system that was developing yesterday in the North Atlantic before tracking eastward toward the UK, is likely to be worse than last weekend’s Storm Ciara, which brought widespread disruption, due to rain falling on already saturated ground.
Paul Davies, principal meteorologist at the Met Office, said much of the UK can expect between 20mm to 40mm of rain over the weekend, increasing to 50mm to 80mm in some areas.
Mr Davies said up to 140mm would not be “impossible” over the high ground of Wales and Scotland.
The “main areas of concern” today are Wales and north and south-west England, followed by south east England tomorrow.
Both amber and yellow warnings for rain come into effect in Wales at noon today. The yellow warning for rain will cover the whole of Wales. Areas from Caerphilly north to Conwy will be under the amber warning for rain. And by 3pm the rainfall is forecast to become heavier with some parts of Wales due to see 30mm (1in) of rain by 6pm. The amber weather warning for rain is due to end in Wales by 3pm tomorrow with the yellow warning continuing until 9pm tomorrow.
Forecast models last night showed widespread predictions of 50-60mm, around two inches, by about 6pm tomorrow.
A yellow weather warning for wind will come into effect for the whole of Wales at 10am today until noon tomorrow. Gusts of 50mph are expeceted inland, with speeds as high as 60-70mph around the coasts, especially in the west and south.
Natural Resources Wales said river and surface water flooding is “possible widely” across Wales from later today through to tomorrow, and that people need to be prepared.
Last night a flood warning (immediate action required) first issued during Storm Ciara remained in place in the Lower Dee Valley from Llangollen to Trevalyn Meadows, while a flood alert (be prepared) was in place on Anglesey’s west coastline.
But 16 areas of Wales are predicted to be at medium risk of flooding which means that floods are expected and preparations need to be made. These are Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Conwy, Denbighshire, Gwynedd, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Powys, Rhondda Cynon Taff, Torfaen and Wrexham.
At low risk are Cardiff, Flintshire, Anglesey, Pembrokeshire, Swansea and Vale of Glamorgan.
The worst is expected to have passed by Monday when five areas of Wales – Denbighshire, Flintshire, Monmouthshire, Powys and Wrexham – are forecast to have a low risk of flooding.
John Curtin, the Environment Agency’s executive director of flood and coastal risk management, said: “This one (storm) could be a step up from what we have seen before.
“We had a big storm last weekend, (we now have) saturated catchments, snowmelt and rainfall, so it is a perfect storm.”
Mr Davies said: “With Ciara the rain was heavy, but swept through. The concern with Dennis is the longevity of the rainfall.”
Delays and cancellations to road, air, rail and ferry transport are expected for a second consecutive weekend.
Network Rail advised passengers to expect disruption on many routes due to flooding and allow more time for their journeys.
Tracks could be flooded as the ground near parts of the railway is already saturated.
Households living near rail lines are being urged to secure any loose items in their gardens, after several trampolines were blown onto tracks and overhead electric wires last weekend, blocking lines.
The storm is also likely to cause treacherous driving conditions.
AA Patrol of the Year Ben Sheridan said: “Cupid’s arrow has definitely missed the mark this weekend as we’re in for another round of grisly weather with Storm Dennis.
“The forecast looks bleak across the UK with warnings for wind and heavy rain which will significantly reduce visibility on the roads.
“Last weekend many people heeded travel warnings and avoided venturing out. It looks like another cosy weekend in could be on the cards for many as rain pours cold water on their plans.
“Drivers should make sure they account for the conditions. Slow down, allow for greater stopping distances and watch out for potential hazards.”