Don’t be fooled by current Brexit lull

THERE has been a strange lull since the UK left the EU nearly a month ago, with Brexit barely mentioned and a news agenda dominated by Coronavirus and flooding.

But rather than go along with those who would have us believe that the predictions of doom and gloom were no more than Remoaner scare stories, we need to remind ourselves that the UK is currently in an agreed transitional stage, and that until the end of 2020 we are still in the European single market and customs union.

The lull is therefore a very temporary phenomenon – and very soon we can expect Brexit to resume its dominant position in the political agenda.

Today the EU is due to publish its negotiating stance in advance of phase two negotiations with the UK over our future trading relationship.

Then on Thursday it will be the turn of the UK Government to set out what it wants to achieve.

All the indications are that the two sides will be far apart.

The EU wants the UK to remain as close as possible to it in terms of regulatory arrangements. What it is anxious to avoid is the creation on its doorstep of a trading rival prepared to undercut it in terms of employment, environmental, consumer and food standard protections.

It is likely to make it clear that the further the UK wishes to deviate from the EU in these areas, the less generous it will be in offering a trade deal.

To judge from the rhetoric uttered by UK Ministers and its senior trade negotiator David Frost in recent days, Boris Johnson has no intention of staying close to the EU in terms of regulatory alignment. The main goal will be to “restore economic and political independence” from January 1. That sounds remarkably like a rallying call in favour of a “no deal” Brexit – an outcome made far more likely following the result of December’s General Election.

While many were weary of the stalemate in the last Parliament and seduced by Boris Johnson’s simplistic promise to “get Brexit done”, crucial decisions will be taken over the next few months that could deliver serious harm to our economy and undermine the livelihoods and living standards of very many people.

It is clear that the United States intends to browbeat the UK into lowering its food standards and animal welfare codes.

We shall soon be able to gauge the level of true independence the UK has outside the EU.