Coronavirus fears could disrupt Six Nations run-in
The race for the men’s Six Nations title could be affected after a senior Irish politician raised doubts over Ireland v Italy going ahead due to the coronavirus outbreak.
Irish Minister for Health Simon Harris said reviews of mass gatherings were taking place in the coming days, with specific focus on the scheduled March 7 clash in Dublin that would set up a likely final day showdown with France, and maybe England, in for the title a week later.
At present, there are no confirmed plans to cancel events, but Harris said: “The rugby game is something that needs considerable consideration.
“This situation is evolving. The weekend’s activities have shown that there is still an awful lot unknown about the coronavirus and about the path it might take. There will be some big decisions that have to be made in the coming days including mass gatherings. Most particularly, I’m thinking of the Ireland-Italy rugby game that’s due to take place in the not-too distant future.
“We’re reviewing today advice in relation to situations like mass gatherings like large matches and the National Public Health Emergency team will meet tomorrow.
“The chances of a coronavirus case in Ireland or indeed anywhere in the European Union outside of Italy has significantly increased but it’s really important that we act in accordance with best health advice,” he said.
A spokesperson for the Irish Rugby Football Union (IRFU) said the Ireland v Italy games that weekend “remain as scheduled” at present.
“The IRFU will follow government advice on such fixtures,” the spokesperson said.
The Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) has advised Irish citizens to avoid travelling to areas in Italy affected by the coronavirus due to recent increases in confirmed cases.
The Italy v Scotland Women’s Six Nations match was called off on Sunday due to the outbreak, while two
PRO14 matches due to take place in Italy have also been postponed for next week. Four Serie A football fixtures were also put off over the weekend.
Italy Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced emergency measures late on Saturday, and the number of cases in the country has now risen to more than 150, with six confirmed deaths.
Authorities have imposed restrictions in the Lombardy, EmiliaRomagna and Veneto regions. A lockdown is in place in several small towns and, for the next two weeks, 50,000 residents will not be able to leave without special permission.
It’s unclear what it would mean for the tournament if the Ireland v Italy game was called off. The postponed Italy v Scotland women’s game is due to be replayed at a later date, according to Six Nations officials.
In 2016, France v Ireland was called off because of a waterlogged pitch but that was replayed shortly afterwards during the overall tournament window. That option would not be available this time around, with the final round of matches already taking place the following weekend on March 14.
Italy are due to play England that day and the Italian Federation have told WalesOnline they will follow the Government and Olympic Committee’s advice around that fixture if the virus spreads further through the country.
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THE position of Wales’ head coach is a funny one. A couple of defeats and suddenly goodwill goes out of the window.
That’s a sensation Wayne Pivac will be familiar with right now, with many Welsh fans bemoaning the fact that the promised evolution has yet to show itself.
But how fair an assessment is that? And just what exactly is stopping Wales from progressing at the minute..?
CONTROLLING RUCK SPEED
PERHAPS the biggest issue for Wales has been their fluctuating ruck speed in attack.
When Wales have been able to get quick ruck ball, then the attacking options and pod formations put in place by Pivac have looked threatening.
Take the first try scored out in Dublin.
Wales go through six phases in the build-up – with their ruck speed consistently quick.
The attack is fluid, there are always options and variations to keep the defence guessing and nice handling and composure sees Tomos Williams cross for the score.
That’s the blueprint for what Pivac and Stephen Jones wants to do with Wales’ attack. Spread the field as wide as possible, with forward options holding their width on either wing, and then use a host of attacking pictures to break down the defence.
When Wales have had quick ball in this year’s Six Nations, it’s looked like working. Ironically, the build-up to Romain Ntamack’s interception came from Wales getting quick ball from a Hadleigh Parkes carry and then getting around the French defence as a result.
The problem for Wales - and it’s one of many issues that have been carried over from the Gatland era - is that Wales lack the big ball carriers to get easy quick ball.
Look at England and their forward power usually gets them going forward consistently. Wales don’t have that luxury, so they have to go about it other ways.
Moving the point of contact is one, and it’s something Wales have done relatively well at times. The increase of forwards who can pass before the tackle allows Wales to dictate speed of ruck by keeping the defence guessing.
But against France, the one-out pass from one forward to another was often telegraphed. Perhaps Wales were caught out by France’s aggressive counter-rucking but the options inside and outside the first receiver often weren’t there.
If the defence can read where the first pass is going, they can usually make a fist of slowing ball down.
Wales also struggled with their breakdown support at times on Saturday, with France doing a good job of disrupting things – even if they only managed to produce two turnovers at the breakdown.
Maybe that’s a downside of their new 1-3-2-2 pod formation that allows them to hold their width with the forwards across the pitch. It will naturally take time for Wales’ ruck support to adjust to this change.
GETTING THE OFFLOAD RIGHT
ONE of the areas Pivac is really pushing hard - and one of the facets of the game that if done right will only help Wales’ battle for quick ball - is the offloading game.
Against France, they made 16 offloads and 19 clean breaks. For comparison, they made just 29 offloads and 30 clean breaks in the entire 2019 Six Nations.
Funnily enough, France’s had their own offloading ambitions a few years back which highlights the risks of the game.
Back in 2016 and 2017, France offloaded more than any other team in the Six Nations. The number weren’t even close.
They recorded 127 offloads across the two tournaments. For context, England managed 71, Ireland 59, Italy 61, Wales 63 and Scotland 47
Yet despite those numbers, they won just five out of ten matches across the tournament. The problem was that the vast majority of those offloads came in the wrong areas.
Often, they were offloading in areas of dense traffic – ensuring the next ball carrier was being hit by a dominant tackle.
They also looked to offload to break the first line of defence, rather than breaking the line then offloading to turn it into a full clean break.
Compare that to New Zealand, for example, who tend to offload in wider channels and from clean breaks and it becomes clear it’s not just the quantity of the offload, but the quality.
On this front, I think Wales are closer to New Zealand than France in the sense that they are looking to offload in the right areas and for the right reasons.
At the moment though, Wales are still getting used to this new gameplan. When they get it right, as shown by Tomos Williams’ try in Dublin, it can cut up a defence.
At times, however, they’ve been a little too rushed in their decisionmaking – leading to a few handling errors too many.
REDZONE SUCCESS
ANOTHER issue that has been inherited by Pivac but one he’ll need to solve.
A quick glance at the statistics and you’d see that Wales created far more in Saturday’s match than they did in their previous two encounters with the French.
The fact then that they lost this one and not the others isn’t necessarily a stick to beat Pivac with. After all, you couldn’t expect France to implode at the third time of asking as well.
But Wales will know they left some chances out on the field – with a lack of clinical edge in the redzone likely to be on the agenda for Pivac’s workons.
Granted, this is something that most teams are struggling with in this year’s Six Nations – getting stuck five metres out – but Wales had two concerted passages of pressure in France’s 22 that saw them come away with the grand sum of zero points.
That’s just not good enough. And while the first instinct is to blame the attack outright, it’s worth looking at their set-piece weapons as to why they’re struggling with redzone conversion.
For all the talk of Wales’ scrum, it’s not that bad. Really. But I don’t think Wales are using it in the way they should be.
Rather than a platform for attack, they’re using it for a way to earn penalties. That’s not a bad thing per se, but the more you go to the well to milk another scrum penalty, the more likely you are to get stung by a penalty going against you.
The concern is that Wales don’t look comfortable attacking from the scrum. A statistic posted by rugby analyst Brendon Shields on Twitter