Death toll in Wales ‘could reach as high as 25,000’
THE death toll due to coronavirus in Wales would be as high as 25,000 in a worst-case scenario, the health minister has warned.
At a press conference yesterday afternoon, Welsh Government Health Minister Vaughan Gething said the worst-case scenario estimate from scientists was for 20,000 possible deaths in Wales with a maximum figure of 25,000.
He referred to a document called the Four Nations Coronavirus Action Plan, which he said included the scientific estimate.
“Of course we hope it would be less of an impact than that but we have to plan for that,” said Mr Gething.
When asked how that figure had been reached, he said: “From the scientific modelling that’s been done, these figures are in the public domain and referenced in the action plan.
“We expect over 20,000 but a maximum of 25,000. This is not a trivial matter, it’s really significant and serious. It’s why we’re making this statement this afternoon.”
An average flu season would see 8,000 to 10,000 additional deaths across the whole of the UK, he said.
Wales has a population of three million people and the worst-case estimate from scientists is based on 80% of the population contracting Covid-19 and a mortality rate of about 1%.
Government policies so far, such as urging people to wash their hands and to self isolate if they have minor symptoms, are based on trying to reduce the percentage of the population who contract the disease.
To allow the Welsh NHS to prepare for the additional demand for care, Mr Gething announced that nonurgent outpatient and surgical care would be suspended.
Mr Gething said the most important action was to give staff time to train and be re-deployed as the number of coronavirus cases continues to spread.
He said the decision will allow for services and beds to be reallocated in priority areas as emergency services staff prioritise coronavirus.
Permission has been granted to cancel internal and professional events within the Welsh NHS, including staff study leave, to free them up for preparations.
But access to cancer and other essential treatments like renal dialysis will be maintained.
NHS staff in Wales have also been told to reconsider their annual leave.
Mr Gething stressed it will be “months” before Wales reaches the peak of the coronavirus spread.
The decision has been made to suspend non-urgent outpatient appointments and ensure urgent appoints are prioritised; suspend non-urgent surgical admissions and procedures; and expedite discharge of vulnerable patients from acute and community hospitals.
Mr Gething said: “Our NHS 111 online and telephone service is available and has been protecting our vital primary care and emergency department services from undue demand.
“The key principle is to keep people safe and to keep patients out of clinical settings if there is no urgent need to attend.
“Our NHS and Social Care system is working hard to care for those people who have been confirmed with coronavirus whilst also continuing to deal with the health and social care needs of the Welsh population.”
First Minister Mark Drakeford confirmed none of the Welsh cabinet ministers have been affected by coronavirus so far. He said there are contingency plans should any of them become unwell and need to isolate.
In making the announcement, which came hours after the WRU called off the Wales v Scotland game, Mr Gething said: “As we move in our preparations from the ‘contain’ to the ‘delay’ phase of Covid-19, it is vital that our health and social care system in Wales is prepared.
“I have taken a number decisions today to ensure early and decisive action to continue to provide care and support to the most vulnerable people in our communities, whilst also making sure organisations and professionals are supported to make timely preparations for the expected increase in the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19.
“I am choosing to act now before we see a significant surge in demand so that our services can be ready to act. A larger number of people requiring high levels of care is highly likely over the coming weeks.
“I have taken advice from professional colleagues, including NHS chief executives and medical directors to inform my decision to act now to ensure our preparations can be made in a planned and measured way.”
Darren Hughes, director of the Welsh NHS Confederation, said: “As the Welsh Government moves their preparations from the “contain” to the “delay” phase of COVID-19, we would like to reassure the public that NHS organisations in Wales are well prepared to provide high quality care and support to people in their communities”.
“We are pleased that the Minister has taken the action today following feedback from NHS Chief Executives and Medical Directors to ensure that preparations to COVID-19 are planned, co-ordinated and proportionate”.
“We would like to thank all the dedicated and hardworking staff working on the frontline in health and social care.”