‘Flying to Manchester is greener than a train trip’
AGROUP representing regional airports has claimed that flying between Cardiff and Manchester would emit far less carbon dioxide per person than making the journey by train, but Transport for Wales is querying the calculations.
The Regional and Business Airports Group (RBAG) includes Cardiff Airport, which – like TfW – is owned by the Welsh Government.
In October, the RBAG produced a report criticising existing models which are used to calculate carbon emissions from different modes of transport. It said the models rely too much on data averaged across routes, rather than the specific emissions of the vehicles or aircraft used on each route.
“There is concern that aviation, particularly on shorter domestic routes, may be being presented in an unfair light as a result,” says the report, alongside a photo of teenage climate campaigner Greta Thunberg.
Its own model for calculating carbon emissions is “designed to bring clarity and accuracy”. Case studies in the report include Cardiff to Manchester, where the RBAG’s model shows that the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per passenger are 55.05kg by rail – 53% higher than the 36.05kg by air.
The same journey by car, using the M5 and M6, is shown as emitting 40.72kg per passenger.
Cardiff Airport gave a copy of the report “in private” to the Assembly’s economy, infrastructure and skills committee, as evidence for the committee’s inquiry into transport decarbonisation. In January, the committee said it would ignore the report unless it was allowed to “share the document, both with experts to check the figures and publicly”.
The report has now been published by the committee and has already been queried by James Price, chief executive of TfW.
“It is very difficult to make comparisons between the different modes of transport, given the assumptions made in the report,” he told the committee.
“A journey by plane direct from Cardiff to Manchester does not currently exist. The journey is either via Jersey, Dublin or Belfast. There is no explanation of how the 82% load factor has been calculated (assumed) for this journey.” The load factor is the proportion of seats occupied on average.
The RBAG’s report says load factors on the train service between Cardiff and Manchester vary “between 20% and 35%”. “There are many unexplained issues here,” said Mr Price. He claimed that TfW’s trains on the route are “at high capacity”. “We also assume that a large number of passengers getting on and off on short journeys in between Cardiff and Crewe are not being accounted for in the carbon emitted per passenger per kilometre calculation.”
Only a minority of people on TfW’s hourly Cardiff-Manchester trains are likely to be travelling between those cities, but the trains also serve many other markets, including commuting into Cardiff and Manchester. Passengers from Herefordshire and Monmouthshire use them to connect with London trains at Newport, and there is often a large turnover in passengers at the connectional hubs of Crewe and Shrewsbury.
TfW regards demand on the route as being so strong that, after new rolling stock is introduced in 2023, it will lengthen the trains from today’s two or three coaches to five coaches – including first-class seating on every train.
Mr Price also queried the RBAG’s quoted journey times between Cardiff and Manchester, which are 40 minutes by plane, four hours 40 minutes by train and three hours 50 minutes by road. “Current journey times to Manchester from Cardiff by plane are over 4.5 hours.”
According to the National Rail website, trains take about 3.5 hours from Cardiff Central to Manchester Piccadilly, with one taking only three hours eight minutes.
The hypothetical Cardiff-Manchester direct air service, used to calculate the figures in the report, would probably have to fly only at the busiest times, rather than frequently across the whole day, in order to fill more than 80% of the seats on average.
The 40-minute journey time for the hypothetical flight appears to be the travel time between Cardiff Airport and Manchester Airport.
The AA’s route planner estimates the road journey from Cardiff city centre to Cardiff Airport at 29 minutes. Journey time from Manchester Airport to Manchester city centre is about half an hour by road or about
Lago Maggiore, lies, sheltered, on the south side of the Alps, making for a mild climate and consequent lush vegetation. Famed gardens feature Mediterranean and exotic flora, including azaleas, rhododendrons and camelias. You have included visits to Villa Taranto and to picture-book Lake Orta. Price includes Return direct flights from Bristol 7 nights HB accommodation in Stresa on Lake Maggiore Full day excursion by boat to the Borromean Islands; excursion by boat to Captain McEacharn’s fabulous Villa Taranto garden; excursion to Lake Orta Services of a tour representative