‘We were expecting herd immunity to build’
Today will mark 50 days of lockdown in the UK – but when it started our fate had already been sealed. Ffion Lewis reports
The two weeks that sealed Britain’s place as Europe’s deadliest country:
ON MARCH 5 this year a woman in her 70s became the first person who had been diagnosed with Covid-19 to die in the UK.
She had been “in and out of hospital”. She had not been abroad.
The same day another 48 other UK Covid19 cases were made public, taking the total from 115 to 163 in one leap.
A day later the number shot past 200.
On March 9 Italy locked down. Its death toll that day was 463. Three days later it would be more than 1,000.
Researchers predicted that the virus’ trajectory in Britain was just two weeks behind Italy. But it would be another two weeks before Britain acted.
We watched the horror in Europe unfold from afar. On our phones, on packed trains, in pubs and restaurants.
On March 11 the World Health Organisation (WHO) gave up hope the virus could be contained and declared a pandemic.
Britain waited. But the virus was taking grip. In our care homes, in our schools and workplaces. It was still arriving on planes. It was being passed on at concerts and sporting events. We didn’t know. There were no tests to take.
Why worry when the Welsh Government’s Minister for Health was looking forward to attending a Six Nations match in Cardiff?
When Spanish football fans from a virus-stricken European city were arriving in their thousands to watch a football match? If anything, their presence would benefit our herd immunity strategy.
Lockdown was something that seemed unbelievable. The suggestion of shutting down London alone seemed inconceivable. Too much to get your head around.
Two weeks later, on March 23, the UK announced its restrictions. Two weeks after Boris Johnson told the nation that “many families in Britain will lose loved ones before their time”. Two weeks after a failed strategy delayed testing, delayed social distancing, delayed mass gatherings being banned.
These are the two weeks that sealed Britain’s fate as the worst-stricken country in Europe. Second in the world behind the US.
MARCH 9 – EUROPE BEGINS TO LOCK DOWN
Ten weeks after Chinese health authorities were first informed a new coronavirus was responsible for a highly contagious pneumonia, the virus already had a firm grip on the world.
Two days after China admitted the virus could spread from person to person, Wuhan was locked down at 10am on January 23. But this was too late – cases were already being reported in Japan, South Korea, America and Taiwan.
Six weeks after the region which spawned the disease began to get cases under control, Italy became the world epicentre of Covid-19.
Why the virus spread so prevalently in Italy’s north, just as China started to get its outbreak under control, is a question scientists have not yet fully answered.
On March 9, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte used emergency powers to place the Italy on lockdown.
By this point, the virus had claimed 463 lives and infected 9,172 people in the country.
Despite the UK Government’s chief medical advisor Professor Chris Whitty warning the number of infections would rise “really quite fast”, nothing changed.
MARCH 10 – UK PEAK EXPECTED WITHIN A FORTNIGHT
England’s deputy chief medical officer Dr Jenny Harries said the start of the UK peak was expected within the next fortnight.
On Sky News, Dr Harries said “many thousands of people” would contract coronavirus as the disease continued to spread in the UK.
Dr Harries said the vast majority of those diagnosed with coronavirus in the UK are “pretty well” but that they may “feel a bit rough for a few days”.
She added: “Within 10 to 14 days we will be likely to advise people with symptoms to self-isolate and we are expecting that start of the peak [of coronavirus cases] to come during that period.”
Dr Harries said cancelling big outdoor events like football matches would not necessarily be a decision supported by science.
“The virus will not survive very long outside,” she said. “Many outdoor events, particularly, are relatively safe.”
Around 319 people were confirmed to have the virus in the UK.
MARCH 11 – COVID-19 OFFICIALLY DECLARED A PANDEMIC
The coronavirus outbreak was labelled a pandemic by WHO, with chief Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus saying the number of cases outside China had increased 13-fold in two weeks.
He also said he was “deeply concerned” by “alarming levels of inaction”.
By now, coronavirus had spread to more than 100 countries and infected more than 125,000 people across the world.
Pandemic aside, the UK still had sporting events to host, tourists to welcome and offices to attend – life continued as normal.
Unbelievably, on March 11, Liverpool’s Champions League match with Atletico Madrid went ahead with more than 50,000 fans in attendance – 3,000 from Madrid, where a partial lockdown was already in force.
While there is no confirmed link between the match and any coronavirus cases, the Government’s deputy chief scientific adviser, Angela McLean, said on April 20 that it warranted further investigation.
It has now been revealed that in the three months leading up to the UK’s coronavirus lockdown, of the 18.1 million people who arrived in the country, just 273 were placed into quarantine.
Chief scientific advisor to the UK Government Sir Patrick Vallance said the UK received a “big influx of cases” from Europe that “seeded right the way across the country”.
MARCH 12 – BORIS JOHNSON TELLS THE UK TO PREPARE TO LOSE LOVED ONES
Until March 12, the coronavirus risk level, set by the Government’s top medical advisers on scientists’ recommendation, remained at “moderate,” suggesting only the possibility of a wider outbreak.
Now, Prof Whitty announced Britain had moved the threat to UK citizens from “moderate” to “high” – meaning the country had moved from trying to contain the disease to trying to slow its spread.
Now, when asked what he would change about the UK’s response to the virus, Sir Patrick has said it would have been “beneficial” to ramp up testing sooner.
Data released by the Office for National Statistics on May 5 showed there were 27,300 coronavirus-related deaths in England and Wales by April 24. Including deaths reported to the ONS since April 24, it brings the total number to more than 32,000.
These figures can also include cases where a test has not been car
ried out but because a doctor suspects the individual was infected. The daily Government figures rely on confirmed cases.
The data goes up to April 24 – delays in reporting and completing death certificates mean it lags behind the daily figures.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed many people’s worst fear – the virus would take their loved ones “before their time”.
In sombre tones, he described Covid-19 as “the worst public health crisis for a generation” and told anyone with symptoms to self-isolate for seven days.
“I must level with you, the British public. Many more families are going to lose their loved ones before their time,” he said.
Yet he said he would not be bringing in stricter measures.
His chief medical officer Sir Patrick Vallance said the number of confirmed cases, 596 at the time, was likely to be just a 10th or 20th of the 5,000 or 10,000 in the UK who had the disease.
No lockdown would be put in place for another 11 days.
It was only on March 12, dubbed Black Thursday, that stock markets around the world woke up to the threat that Covid-19 posed to the world economy as Wall Street had its biggest one-day drop in 30 years.
By March 12, it was clear the rest of the world was en route to overtaking China in terms of cases and deaths. There had been 44,279 people diagnosed with Covid-19 and 1,440 deaths outside China, compared to 80,981 in it and 3,173 deaths.
But the Wales v Scotland game was still planned to go ahead in two days’ time at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff.
Health Minister Vaughan Gething had said he planned to go. Scotland fans were already on their way to Wales for the sell-out Six Nations rugby clash.
All other sport in Wales had been called off. Even children’s football was cancelled for the weekend coming. Professional and amateur games at all levels were scrapped.
Yet it was only the following day, Friday, March 13, with Scotland fans already packed into Cardiff ’s bars, that the WRU issued a statement to say the game would not be going ahead.
And despite all the warnings, that weekend thousands of Stereophonics fans packed into Cardiff’s Motorpoint Arena on Saturday and Sunday to watch the band. Echoing the mood of many, an intensive care consultant from Newport has since described the decision to let the gigs go ahead as “downright insane”.
MARCH 13 – EUROPE IS NOW THE ‘EPICENTRE’
Dr Ghebreyesus issued a wake-up call to European capitals to go further in their measures to stop Covid-19, by declaring Europe the crisis’ epicentre.
Italy was the worst-hit, with doctors reporting they were being forced to make life-or-death decisions on which patients would receive administer life-saving care.
Spain, the worst-affected European country after Italy, reported a 50% jump in fatalities to 120 on Friday.
The UK had reported 798 cases with 11 deaths.
Yet in China, for the first time, the nation reported no new local infections for the previous day.
Despite rising cases of people confirmed to have tested positive for coronavirus across the UK, between March 10 and March 13 Cheltenham Racecourse held their annual Festival – playing host to more than 60,000 people each day.
MARCH 15 – OVER-70S TO STAY HOME FOR FOUR MONTHS
England’s Health Secretary Matt Hancock said over-70s would soon be asked to stay at home for up to four months.
In an interview with the BBC he said asking the over-70s to stay selfisolated would be “a very big ask”, but that it was part of the Government’s action plan because it would be necessary to protect them.
His use of the term “self-isolate” caused confusion among many. Until this point, the term “self-isolation” had been used by health officials to refer to the very strict isolation for people with confirmed coronavirus.
While no restrictions had yet been put in place, this seemed to indicate to many the measures Government would be taking in the future.
MARCH 16 – THE FIRST PATIENT DIES IN WALES
The first person in Wales to die after being diagnosed with coronavirus was a 68-year-old man being treated in Wrexham Maelor Hospital. It is understood he had no travel history and had been living at home before being admitted to hospital.
Cases and deaths around the world overtook China, with 86,438 cases and 3,338 deaths outside the People’s Republic.
A damning report by scientist Neil Ferguson and his team at Imperial College London predicted that, unconstrained, the virus could kill 510,000 people. Even the Government’s “mitigation” approach could lead to 250,000 deaths and intensive care units being overwhelmed at least eight times over.
“We were expecting herd immunity to build. We now realise it’s not possible to cope with that,” Professor Azra Ghani, who worked on the paper, said. March 16 also saw the first of the daily television briefings to be broadcast to the nation, which served to confuse and cause consternation as they have taken little account of devolution.
Meanwhile, the Prime Minister spoke to more than 60 of the UK’s leading manufacturing businesses and organisations to call on them to help the UK step up production of vital medical equipment. Before the pandemic, it is believed the UK had 5,000 ventilators.
MARCH 17 – GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCE THE BIGGEST PACKAGE OF EMERGENCY SUPPORT FOR BUSINESS SINCE THE 2008 FINANCIAL CRASH
Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced a £350bn package of loans and grants to help Britain cope with the lockdown of large parts of the economy. He stressed he would do “whatever it takes” to see the UK through the crisis.
“The coronavirus pandemic is a public health emergency. But it is also an economic emergency. We have never, in peacetime, faced an economic fight like this one. But we are well-prepared. We will get through this,” he said.
MARCH 18 – MORE THAN 100 PEOPLE IN THE UK HAVE DIED OF CORONAVIRUS
By mid-March, over 100 people had now died from coronavirus in the UK after more than 600 new cases of the virus were confirmed in one day. Of the 104 people who had now died from the virus, two were in Wales, three in Scotland and 99 in England. In eight weeks since the first person to die from the virus in the UK was announced on March 5, more than 30,000 people have died from the virus.
Wales’ Education Minister Kirsty Williams announced that Easter break would be brought forward and “schools across Wales will close for statutory provision of education at the latest on Friday, March 20.”
No date has been given on when schools are expected to reopen in Wales. However, yesterday First Minister Mark Drakeford indicated that they would not reopen in June.
GCSE and A-level exams in Wales will not be taking place this summer.
Mr Johnson also said on March 18 that all schools across the UK would close.
MARCH 19 – ‘ZERO PROSPECT’ OF LONDON LOCKDOWN
Just three days before a nationwide lockdown was put in place by the UK Government, the Prime Minister’s official spokesperson squashed rumours of a lockdown on Britain’s capital involving limits on movement.
The spokesperson said: “There are no plans to close down the transport network in London and there is zero prospect of any restriction being placed on travelling in or out of London. The Prime Minister and his advisers have set out the need for social distancing measures to limit the spread of the virus and to protect lives.
“What we’re focused on is ensuring as many people as possible take that advice and don’t unnecessarily put themselves in a position where they could be spreading coronavirus.”
He said speculation that households could be limited to only one person at a time leaving their home were untrue and he dismissed claims people could be fined if they left their homes. Incredibly, in just 72 hours, not only would London be in lockdown but the entire country.
The same day, Mr Drakeford announced that Wales would get extensive powers to shut down towns and cities as part of the fight against coronavirus – although there were no “imminent” plans to use them.
The list of jobs which are classed as “key workers” was released by the UK Government, with frontline health and social care staff, people involved in food production and delivery, and utility workers included in the list. The list, which the Welsh Government confirmed was the same for Wales, helped determine which people would get, for example, continued childcare when schools closed.
MARCH 20 – FORCED CLOSURE AND FURLOUGH
Prime Minister Boris Johnson ordered pubs, bars, cafes and restaurants, among other venues, to close in a strengthening of measures to tackle the coronavirus outbreak.
To combat job losses and loss of income during this enforced closure, Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced the Government’s Job Retention Scheme. The scheme offers grants for businesses to cover 80% of an individual’s salary up to £2,500 a month.
MARCH 21 – ITALY SEES BIGGEST DAILY INCREASE, THREE WEEKS BEFORE UK
On Saturday March 21, the death toll in Italy rose by 793 to 4,825, making it the largest daily rise in absolute terms since the pandemic began.
The UK would go on to surpass this three weeks later, recording 980 deaths in one day on Friday, April 10.
MARCH 22 – MORE RESTRICTIONS ON MOVEMENT ANNOUNCED
The UK Government announced it was “going further” to shield “the most clinically vulnerable people”.
The NHS identified 1.5m people in England who face the highest risk of being hospitalised. The Government said it would contact these people and ask them to stay at home for 12 weeks.
This included people with serious respiratory conditions, specific cancers – blood and bone marrow – organ transplants and those on imuno-suppressant blood treatment.
First Minister Mark Drakeford said it would apply to 70,000 people in Wales. This has now been extended to 120,000 people. “For 12 to 16 weeks, not leaving their homes at all so they have the maximum shielding from the virus,” he told the BBC.
MARCH 23 – LOCKDOWN BRITAIN
Shops shut, bars close and people, apart from essential workers, go home from work for the last time.
After weeks of talk and calls for a stricter response to the virus, the UK joined France, Spain and Italy in lockdown.
In a message to the country, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said all nonessential shops would be shut and people should stay home as much as possible. In the most draconian measures ever announced in peacetime, Mr Johnson announced police can fine those breaking the rules.
That day 6,650 people in the UK had already been diagnosed with coronavirus and 335 had died.