CUMMINGS ROW HITS TORY SUPPORT, POLL
LABOUR has regained its lead in Wales in the wake of the Dominic Cummings affair with a massive swing from the Tories, a new poll has shown.
The latest Welsh political poll done by YouGov for Cardiff University and ITV Wales shows Labour regaining the lead when people were asked how they would vote in both elections for the Senedd and for Westminster.
The poll, which was done at the end of May, comes after voters in January had indicated for the first time that more people were intending to vote Conservative than Labour in Wales at both Welsh and UK elections.
The latest poll shows that at a Westminster election, Labour would secure 39% of the votes (+5 since April), with the Conservatives on 35% (-11), Plaid Cymru 15% (+4), the Liberal Democrats 5% (+1), the Brexit Party 2% (-1), and others 1% (+1).
Professor Roger Awan-Scully, who co-ordinates the regular barometer polls for Cardiff University, said: “These figures demonstrate a substantial turnaround in party fortunes since April. Labour are back in the lead.
“But while they have improved their position in the last two months, the change is primarily about Conservative decline from the extraordinarily strong position they had last time.
“While the Welsh Tories’ position in Wales remains strong by all historic standards – and is only just below their vote-share in last December’s general election – to fall 11 points between two polls is highly unusual.
“Of the other parties, Plaid Cymru will be most cheered, with the Conservative decline benefiting them almost to the same extent as it does Labour.”
In terms of projected seats, based on a uniform all-Wales swing, these figures would see Labour losing one seat – Alyn and Deeside – to the Conservatives as the only change from last December’s general election, leaving Labour with 21 seats (-1), the Conservatives 15 (+1) and Plaid Cymru 4 (no change).
The poll also shows Labour retaking the lead for a Senedd election with 34% in the constituency section (+2), the Conservatives on 31% (-7), Plaid Cymru 22% (+3), the Liberal Democrats 5% (+1), the Brexit Party 3% (-1), the Greens 3% (+1) and others 3% (+2).
Prof Awan-Scully said: “Our previous Welsh poll showed that the surge in Conservative fortunes in Wales was not limited to Westminster. But the strong influence of British-wide political tides on the electoral fortunes of parties in Wales – an influence these days very much weaker in Scotland – can hurt as well as help a party.
“Our new poll demonstrates that the setbacks the Tories have experienced in recent times are impacting them at the devolved level as well.
“And as at Westminster, this appears to have worked to the benefit of both Labour and Plaid Cymru.
“The April Barometer poll had projected (under uniform national swings) the Conservatives to capture nine constituency seats from Labour.
“Now those gains have been cut to five seats. In current order of marginality, those are Vale of Glamorgan, Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Wrexham, and Cardiff North. Meanwhile, Plaid are projected to gain Llanelli.”
Regional list voting intentions in the new poll show Labour on 32% (+3), the Conservatives 28% (-9), Plaid Cymru 24% (+6), the Liberal Democrats 5% (+1), Abolish the Assembly 4% (no change), the Brexit Party 3% (-1), the Greens 3% (no change), and others 1% (-1).
Prof Awan-Scully said: “These results reinforce the picture of Conservative decline putting Labour once more in the lead, but also benefiting Plaid Cymru to a significant extent.
“Allowing for the constituency results already projected, and once more assuming uniform national swings since 2016, our new poll projects the following overall results for the Assembly’s regional list seats:
■ North Wales: 2 Plaid, 1 Labour, 1 Conservative;
■ Mid and West Wales: 3 Labour, 1
Conservative;
■ South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid;
■ South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid; and
■ South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid.”
Overall, the new Senedd would see Labour on 25 seats, the Conservatives 19, Plaid Cymru 15 and the Liberal Democrats 1.
Prof Awan-Scully said: “The last few weeks have seen the greatest public health crisis for many years. In that context, with suffering and deaths having been widespread, the polling fortunes of our political parties may seem of little concern.
“But what people think of those who lead our governments, and our political parties, does matter for many reasons.
“In Wales we are less than a year away from the next Senedd election, and the political fallout of the current crisis is likely to play a big part in shaping the fortunes of all the parties in the run up to that campaign.
“Our previous Welsh Political Barometer poll produced historically good results for the Conservatives.
“But I said at the time that the electoral landscape could alter very rapidly – and so it has.”
He added: “If the last few years in politics have taught us nothing else, they should surely have made us aware that political fortunes can change very rapidly.
“In a context where a far lower proportion of voters are lifelong supporters of one party than was once the case, what goes up can also go down – and sometimes very rapidly and to a very substantial extent.
“And if anyone had not yet learned this, our new Welsh Political Barometer poll should drive the lesson home rather effectively.
“Our most recent Barometer poll, in April, was quite literally the best opinion poll ever for the Welsh Conservatives.
“For both Westminster and the
National Assembly, the Tories were at their highest-ever rating, and in clear leads – 12 percentage points ahead of Labour for a general election; and six points ahead for the Senedd on the constituency vote and nine points ahead for the regionalist vote.
“This exceptionally strong Welsh Conservative position was in line with the trends observed in Britainwide polls, where a post general election boost in the Conservative position had been further enhanced by a ‘rally to the flag’ effect in the first weeks of the Covid-19 crisis.
“Things have changed. Recent weeks have seen increasing public scepticism in Britain-wide polls about the Johnson Government’s handling of Covid-19.
“We have also seen steadily improving ratings for the new UK Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer.
“More recently, the Dominic Cummings saga appears to have had substantial public cut-through, and caused significant damage to public evaluations of the Johnson Government and the Conservative Party.
“All of these factors are reflected in the new Barometer poll.
“The poll shows a substantial decline in public assessments of the UK Government’s handling of Covid19, as well as a large setback in the Prime Minister’s own ratings.”
The poll, for ITV-Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, had a sample of 1,021 Welsh adults aged 18+ and was carried out online by YouGov from May 29 to June 1.