Where Cardiff ’s play-off bid will be won or lost

Cardiff City’s remaining fixture schedule has been released and there is no doubting that the fans’ attention has squarely refocused on the play-off race.

Before the break, the Bluebirds had battled their way right into the playoff mix and currently sit just two points off the top six.

After a three-month lay-off, however, this now becomes a mini-season. Nine games which will define City’s future.

Here, we look at Cardiff City’s remaining fixtures, the must-win games and the points total they really need if they are to give themselves a shot at Premier League football next season...

THE RUN-IN ASSESSED

The huge restart

THERE is no getting away from the fact that the opener, or re-opener, against Leeds United is the acid test for this Cardiff City squad.

Some might think that resuming the campaign against the team sitting top of the tree is less than ideal, but, on the contrary, there is so much more to gain than to lose for the Bluebirds in this fixture.

This is all going to boil down to momentum. Should Neil Harris’ men steal a victory a week on Sunday, the boost that will give the squad is immeasurable. Lest we forget, City have the psychological edge over Leeds at present, given their stunning comeback from 3-0 down, with 10 men, to earn a draw at Elland Road before Christmas and the Yorkshire club’s dreadful record against Cardiff in recent years - they have won just three of the last 24 encounters.

A loss for Cardiff, however, wouldn’t be an utter catastrophe.

To give Leeds their due, they’ve been spectacular for the most part this season and another excellent display from Marcelo Bielsa’s side cannot be ruled out.

They were also in remarkable form before the campaign was put on hold, having won their last five games in a row. A win, though, would be massive and set City on their way, especially given how difficult their first few games are.

The tricky five that follow

HERE is where it will likely be won or lost for Cardiff.

The middle five fixtures are packed with in-form teams, derbies and sides around City also pushing for play-off spots. The big ones Cardiff will be targeting, of course, are Charlton and Blackburn. The Bluebirds drew against each of these opponents away from home, but at Cardiff City Stadium they must surely be made favourites for both of those clashes.

Where City might hit some trouble are the three away fixtures against Preston, Fulham and Bristol City.

Two of those teams occupy the play-offs, while Severnside rivals Bristol City are in seventh place, just one point off Preston.

All three of those teams have caused City trouble this season in the home fixture, so away from the Welsh capital is going to be a real ask for this group of players. Any positive result from those three away games will be viewed as a bonus, you feel.

The dream run-in

NOW, of course, this might come across a little facetious - there is arguably no such thing as an easy fixture schedule in the Championship. But, with all things being equal, the last three fixtures have to represent huge opportunities for Harris and his men.

If Cardiff are able to keep themselves in the mix with three fixtures to go, there is nothing stopping them finishing strongly and cementing a top-six spot.

The two home games, against Derby County and relegation battlers Hull City, are must-wins, there are no two ways about it. Those two fixtures must mean six points for City.

The other, while away from home, is a huge clash up in the North East against Middlesbrough.

Boro have won just two of their 14 matches in all competitions in 2020, albeit one of those came in their most recent fixture against Charlton.

Cardiff will really fancy their chances there and while it is a tough ask in the Championship, nine points from the last three games is not inconceivable whatsoever.

POINTS TOTAL NEEDED

HISTORICALLY, sides finishing sixth in the Championship would usually end the regular season with a total of around 74 points. Of course that always fluctuates, but let’s take that as the benchmark.

So, by that reckoning, the Bluebirds would need 20 points from their remaining nine games. A tall order but by no means out of reach.

A combination of six wins and two draws would do it, or even a hugely optimistic prediction of seven wins out of nine. However, with such a congested schedule to come along with the already wide open play-off race, it looks as though this season’s figure could be lower than usual to finish sixth. 70 points could well be enough. If we base it on that lower figure, then it becomes somewhat more attainable, potentially only 16 points from the remaining nine games.

That would mean five wins needed and a draw somewhere along the road. Or potentially even four wins and four draws, which isn’t out of the question given no team has drawn more games than Cardiff this year, 15.

The first game is crucial and could really set the tone, Cardiff know that. The final three games are vital, too, and if they are serious they need somewhere between 10 and 12 points from those three.

But it’s the middle five games which are so difficult to predict.

There are, though, big plus signs if you are a Cardiff City fan.

While Harris bemoaned his bloated squad ahead of the January transfer window, that will now play in his favour during this run-in.

He can name nine players on his bench and use five substitutes during each game, that is huge given the depth of talent the manager currently has at his disposal. Just look at the two extremely strong-looking sides City can field here. As the season rumbles on and games come thick and fast, teams will doubtless encounter injuries and suspensions. But you just feel that won’t hit Cardiff as badly as other teams, given their squad depth, which is why they have cause to feel confident about those final three fixtures. The manager now has almost a fully-fit squad, too, with Lee Tomlin and Nathaniel MendezLaing raring to go.

There is nothing to suggest that City cannot mount a huge charge into the top six when the first ball is kicked at midday a week on Sunday.