Just Champion? Cup qualification explained and why it’s bad news for two regions
THE announcement over how Champions Cup qualification will be decided in the Guinness PRO14 has come as very mixed news for our four pro teams.
There’s cause for celebration with Scarlets and, in particular, Dragons.
But it’s a different story for Cardiff Blues and Ospreys.
Rugby correspondent Simon Thomas looks at what has been decided, the reasons why and what it means for the regions?
So what exactly has been announced?
Well, the PRO14 have decided that European qualification will be based on the Conference table positions from after Round 13, which was played at the end of February.
That’s despite the fact that two more sets of league fixtures – all derbies – have now been pencilled in for August, when this season’s competition is due to resume.
In the case of the two matches from Round 13 which were postponed because of the mounting Covid crisis – Zebre v Ospreys and Benetton v Ulster – all four teams have been awarded two points.
So, we now have the final tables in terms of deciding who goes where in Europe.
What’s not yet confirmed is how many sides will be in the Heineken Champions Cup next season.
But it does seem odds-on that the number will go up from the current 20 to 24, for reasons I will explain later.
That would see the PRO14 having eight teams on board, the same as the Gallagher Premiership and the French Top 14.
What we now know is those eight would be made up of the top-four eligible teams from each conference, based on how the tables currently stand.
What does that mean for the four Welsh regions?
Well, it means a couple of them are smiling and the others are looking a bit glum. Whatever happens with the Champions Cup, Scarlets know they are going to be in it, through lying third in Conference B.
But it’s Dragons who have the real reason to pop the corks.
Qualification being based on Conference positions as they stand now, combined with the likely expansion of the elite European event to 24 teams, has worked perfectly for them.
While they lie fifth in section A, they would qualify because the fourth-placed Cheetahs are ineligible, as South Africans.
So Dean Ryan’s side would join Leinster, Ulster and Glasgow in progressing from their Conference, with Edinburgh, Munster, the Scarlets and Connacht the four qualifying from Conference B.
The increase to 24 teams is yet to be ratified, with a EPCR board meeting scheduled for next week, but my understanding is it’s definitely happening.
Which means the Dragons will be dining at Europe’s top table for the first time in 10 years.
There is a bit of an anomaly in that they have accumulated fewer league points than both Treviso and the Blues – 22 compared to 31 and 29 respectively.
But the decision to base European qualification on Conference positions has opened the door for the Men of Gwent.
Meanwhile, Cardiff Blues and Ospreys will head into the secondtier Challenge Cup, which is likely to be made up of 16 teams.
Even if qualification were based on overall league points, the Blues would still miss out as they are not in the top eight on that score.
Treviso have gone above them in Conference B through the two points they have received for their postponed game against Ulster.
If anyone has a gripe over the formula, it’s the Italian side, both in terms of how the eight are decided and the cut-off after Round 13.
So why was it decided to base qualification on how the tables stand now?
That’s a question a lot of people have been asking given two more rounds of fixtures have now been
scheduled for when this season’s competition kicks back into action in August. There will be two weekends of derbies in each country, on the 22nd and 29th of that month, ahead of a semi-final and a final over the following two weeks.
Yet the results of those derby matches will not be factored in when it comes to European qualification.
So why not?
As I understand it, there was a lot of deliberation on the subject, but essentially it was decided the fairest sporting outcome was to base qualification on completed fixtures as set out at the start of the season with that player group.
The two newly-announced rounds are something of a contrivance as they see the Scottish, Italian and South Africa sides playing an additional derby which was not on the original fixture list.
They will now play four derbies rather than the planned three.
So, it was felt it would not be fair to factor in matches that were not on the original fixture list and which could feature a different set of players when it comes to deciding European spots.
In practical terms, Benetton could have benefited unfairly from having an extra fixture against lowly Zebre and gone above Connacht, who face two testing interprovincial fixtures.
It’s a decision which also impacts on Ospreys as they could potentially have leapt above Dragons in the European stakes via the derby games.
Similarly, Cardiff Blues would have had a mathematical chance of forcing their way in. Now that can’t happen for either team.
People will no doubt question why the derbies won’t count towards European ranking, but will be factored into the final table in terms of who progresses to the PRO14 play-offs, with the top two from each conference going into the semi-finals.
What I’m told is that’s being done to ensure those games mean something and are not dead rubbers. Either way, it’s certainly a topic that is provoking a lot of debate.
Why is the Champions Cup set to be expanded to 24 teams for next season?
That’s a one-off change based on the challenges thrown up by the coronavirus pandemic.
It was felt that because the current season has been so disrupted and some teams are being denied the chance to complete their fixtures and force their way into the European reckoning that as many sides as possible should be given a shot at figuring in the top event.
The other change is the expanded Champions Cup will be played over eight weekends rather than the usual nine.
That’s because of the cramped nature of next season, with the current one having to be completed first.
A whole series of permutations are now being looked at in terms of how to play a 24-team competition over eight weekends.
You could have a two-conference system or maybe eight groups of three, with teams playing matches against sides from other pools.
All ideas are on the table and up for discussion. But what’s clear is a move to 24 sides for one season is very much the direction of travel.
You would then have a 16-team Challenge Cup, also played over eight weekends.
What about this season’s European competitions, which two of our regions are still involved in?
Well, the plan is to complete those and dates have been pencilled in for the knock-out stages.
The quarter-finals are set to be played on the weekend of September 19-20. That would see Scarlets and Dragons travelling to Toulon and Bristol respectively in the last eight of the Challenge Cup.
The semi-finals would take place one week later, with the finals on the weekend of October 17-18.
Looking at that date, you can see how next season is going to be concertinaed and why there is a need to reduce the number of European weekends, with group matches likely to begin in December.