FIVE TRIGGERS INTO ANOTHER LOCKDOWN
THE Welsh Government has revealed the indicators it is looking at to decide if Wales needs to go back into lockdown.
These indicators are designed to spot spikes before the nation needs to return to a full lockdown, which has been damaging both to health and the economy.
In order to decide whether a lockdown is needed, decision makers need to know how much Covid-19 there is in our community.
Welsh Government health experts will use all kinds of data to make a decision. These are divided into circuit breakers and early warning indicators.
Early warning indicators are pieces of data which let the Welsh Government know that a spike in cases could be on the way.
Circuit breakers are points where an immediate lockdown would be ordered.
The Western Mail has broken down the sort of data the Welsh Government’s
Technical Advisory Group analyses to work out how much coronavirus is in the wider community use in order to decide if we are heading back into lockdown.
Circuit breakers
If any of the following becomes too high the Welsh Government would order another full lockdown:
Doubling/ halving times hospital admissions for coronavirus – this is how quickly the amount of people with the virus in hospital is doubling (this does not include people who caught the virus in hospital);0
Covid-related hospital occupancy;
Covid-related ICU occupancy; Overall ICU occupancy – if, for example, there are not many coronavirus cases but ICU is full because of seasonal flu, there would still be a justification for heading back into lockdown as any spike in Covid-19 cases could overwhelm the NHS; and
The reproduction number or “R-number” – this is not a useful measure when cases are low as just one or two new cases can make it rise quickly. However if it were to stay above 1.1 for a matter of weeks a lockdown would be ordered.
Early warning indicators
If any of these indicators start to rise it could mean that a coronavirus spike is on the way. If multiple of these indicators were to flag up at once it would be a cause of even great concern. This would allow measures like partial or local lockdowns to come in. The early warning indicators are:
Transmission/Incidence
Number of confirmed Covid-19 cases;
ZOE prevalence data (% of population with Covid-19)
NHS Direct/111 calls related to
coronavirus;
NHS online activity related to coronavirus;
NHS primary care consultations related to coronavirus (phone and face to face); and
NHS Community nursing visits related to coronavirus.
Mortality
Total number of Covid-19 deaths As of yesterday, three out of the last four days have seen no new coronavirus deaths.
PPE
Level of PPE supplies: total; PPE stocks: disposable gloves; PPE stocks: disposable plastic aprons;
PPE stocks: disposable fluidrepellent coverall/gowns;
PPE stocks: surgical masks; PPE stocks: fluid-resistant (Type IIR) surgical masks; and
PPE stocks: filtering face piece (FFP3) respirators.
When it comes to PPE, it is not just the amount of PPE that is taken into account.
The Welsh Government will also look at the percentage of PPE being used up over a certain length of time.
For example, if Wales had five million gloves, that would be seem like a large number.
However, if Wales is to use a million pairs a week, it is a very low number compared to what is needed. The health experts will be considering the speed of use, not just how many they have.
What’s in the water?
In three weeks’ time scientists will be begin routinely checking waste water in Wales for signs of coronavirus.
The scheme will check the sewers for about 75%-80% of Wales to see if there is any coronavirus genetic material.
As this is detectable up to a week before symptoms set in, it could be a really useful early warning system and help spot new mutations of the virus.