Covid inquiry must reform systems to help Wales flourish
Professors Brian Morgan and Anthony Campbell, of the Wales Covid Communication Group (WCCG) on how the Welsh economy builds back from the pandemic and why an independent inquiry into the Welsh Government’s response to Covid-19 is needed – and quickly
RESPONDING to the crisis should be seen as an opportunity to support new industries and focus on strategic initiatives which will make a real difference rather than simply propping up lame ducks.
And Welsh businesses will need to be incentivised to harness the opportunities that are springing up within the new norms.
Investments in green infrastructure offer important opportunities, such as in the hydrogen economy and harnessing the tidal power in the Severn and the Conwy.
A new inward investment strategy could be developed to attract international research institutions focused on virus control and manufacturing companies engaged in the production of vaccines.
None of this will be easy, but many of these companies will be looking to develop new operations and we have the science base required to support these organisations.
But firstly we need to be clear “what” our goal is and “how” we plan to respond.
Is the goal to eliminate the virus or protect those who are most vulnerable?
A data-driven, evidence-based approach is the right way forward.
Infections and death rates must be tracked, as well as mental health issues, poverty rates and unemployment.
The NHS has done a great job in rapidly reorganising facilities at the hospital level.
But we must not waste the opportunity to use this experience to reform the way our health system is run.
Likewise schools, universities and colleges have responded quickly by moving towards greater use of remote delivery vehicles.
But more can be done and greater investment in digital infrastructure will be needed to allow this to become the norm.
We need to ensure that everyone has access to the internet and enough bandwidth to make full use of the new opportunities for remote learning and working.
A first step to opening up key sectors will be to encourage people in the public sector, as well as business leaders, to develop a much better understanding of “relative risk”.
Such a change of mindset will be required to reopen the leisure and arts sectors.
Cultural-sector productions rely on many people congregating for a shared experience.
Theatre and opera will be particularly difficult to stage and the appetite for audiences to congregate is difficult to assess.
Hence, while the funding offered by the Treasury to support the Welsh creative sector is welcome, the underlying problems will require much longer-term solutions.
The disease is extremely contagious, but very few children or adults under 40 will die from it or even suffer major symptoms.
There must be a strategy to protect those over 60, who are at high risk.
But the response so far has focused too much on modelling the virus and not enough on the virology. We should work more with UK and international virology experts to advise government.
It is important to roll out the PCR test as widely as possible.
Virtually all NHS, university and biomedical labs are familiar with the standard techniques and have the equipment. We must exploit this resource.
An array of testing centres should be established throughout Wales using existing NHS and university facilities so that results are known within 24 hours.
■ Moving forward
Responding effectively to further attacks will require an objective assessment of how the authorities have performed during this outbreak.
This is not to imply that the Welsh Government has performed poorly. But waiting two years or more for the results of a UK-wide public inquiry is not an option – speed is of the essence.
A more limited inquiry should be concluded swiftly so that the lessons learned can be implemented before a possible winter spike.
We will be asking the Welsh Government to commission an independent inquiry to include academia (scientists and virologists), business, education and local government.
■ Crucial questions will be:
■ Why haven’t we been able to deliver a better system of tracing and testing, and why has so much capacity in the NHS, universities and the private sector been “under-utilised”?
■ Why have Covid mortality rates differed both within Wales and across the nations and regions of the UK?
■ How wide is the advice that the Welsh Government has drawn upon? For example, has there been limited use of virologists as opposed to modellers? ■ Has there been any devolution of decision-making within Wales – such as better use of local public health capacity?
■ Is there a case for increasing capacity in local public health departments quickly since an effective trace-and-test system has to be delivered locally?
Hopefully an inquiry will help us address these important issues. Our aim is to encourage government to move from “generic” solutions, such as lockdown, to more “targeted” and localised approaches.
The non-party WCCG aims to work with the business, science and education sectors to create a sound evidence base to inform government and other stakeholders on ways to open up the Welsh economy – particularly those key sectors currently under pressure. ■ Prof Campbell is based at Cardiff University and Prof Morgan at Cardiff Metropolitan University.