Indicators and circuit breakers to
WALES has a lower R number for coronavirus than England, according to the latest figures.
England currently has an R number of 0.8-1.0 with the virus falling by between 3% – 0% a day according to the UK government’s pandemic modelling body SPI(M). However several regions have an upper estimate above 1, meaning the pandemic could be starting to grow again.
The R number is the amount of people each person with Covid-19 is infecting with the virus. If that number goes above one, the number of people becoming infected with the virus will grow exponentially, leading to tens of thousands of additional deaths.
As long as the R number remains below one, the number of people infected with the virus will continue to fall.
In Wales, the most recent estimate of the reproduction number from the UK government’s pandemic modelling body SPI(M) is between 0.7 and 0.9 – an increase from last weeks 0.6 – 0.8, however still crucially below 1.
Due to the low number of cases, the estimate of R is now shown as a range without a central estimate on the Welsh Government website.
There is a more concerning picture in Northern Ireland where the current estimate of R being between 0.8 – 1.8. This means R is highly likely to be over 1 at present and the virus is starting to spread exponentially again.
Chief scientific adviser for NI Professor Ian Young said: “The most recent data for Northern Ireland underlines the need for continued vigilance.
“There are five key steps each of us can take to keep ourselves and others safe: rigorously maintain social distancing; wash our hands well and often; wear face coverings in enclosed spaces where social distancing is difficult; co-operate fully with the Test, Trace and Protect programme in terms of getting tested and self-isolating when required.”
The department of health in England publishes the R number for every region once a week. The R number in Wales currently remains