Medical students cap set to be lifted in exams debacle
ACAP on numbers of medical students studying in Wales is likely to be lifted this year in response to the A-level grading debacle, the Western Mail has learned.
Tens of thousands of students across the UK, including thousands in Wales, had their A-level results upgraded this week after the algorithm used to award results was ditched following a public outcry that is was unfair.
As a result many more applicants will have met their offers for university places, including at Wales’ two medical schools at Cardiff and Swansea universities.
A Welsh Government spokesperson said: “We are confident that there will be a significant expansion in medical school admissions in Wales this year and are working with our universities and funding council to confirm this as soon as possible.
“All parties are working quickly to confirm grades and introduce an efficient admissions process.”
But universities in Wales may not be able to accommodate all applicants who have now met their offers to start next month.
With only weeks to go before the start of term the grading debacle has left universities not
knowing how many students they will have or whether they have room for them.
Cardiff University admits it may have to turn some away until next year.
At a time when universities were already facing a fall in lucrative international students thanks to Covid, and all the problems associated with closing and re-opening in a pandemic, one admissions tutor said the grading crisis had “put a lot of strain and stress on universities”.
The situation is particularly uncertain for applicants for courses which have government regulated numbers, including medicine and social work.
Courses where laboratory and studio space is also hard to expand, thanks to space restrictions and new Covid-19 social distancing rules, are also likely to be unable to accommodate large numbers of extra students who have now met their offers.
Universities in Wales have pledged to honour all offers, but that may mean next year not this year.
Cardiff University Vice-Chancellor Professor Colin Riordan warned: “For some we will have to say ‘you have a place, but not this year’”.
The situation is so confused after weeks of U-turns by governments across the UK that universities say they won’t have a clearer picture of the numbers of students who have now met their offers – or those who have exceeded them and want to go elsewhere – until all the extended appeals processes finish on September 7.
This is very late in the day to start planning for teaching, accommodation and budgets, but universities insist they are resilient and up to the task.
The confusion is compounded by admissions officers still not knowing how many international students will come, or want to start later in the year, thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic. They cannot yet say whether a fall in international students will free up space for larger numbers of home students.
University admissions service UCAS is expected to let universities know today what final grades for A-levels are.
In Wales, results were reviewed twice in response to the furore over the standardisation algorithm agreed by regulator Qualifications Wales to arrive at grades.
First, Education Minister Kirsty Williams announced the night before results that no student would get an A-level grade lower than AS grades already taken for that subject.
Then, four days later she announced that students would get A-level, AS and GCSEs graded according to their teachers’ assessment (Centre Assessed Grades or CAGS), and not the algorithm which also took into account past performance of their schools and cohorts.
Prof Riordan, said changing to the CAG result “was the right thing to do” because of the “perception of unfairness”. But he said the last-minute change, after results day and Clearing – when students who have not met their offers seek for empty spaces elsewhere – was a problem for universities.
“It would have been a lot easier if we had known a lot earlier. This has created a set of issues,” he said.
“We were on target to accept the
number we were expecting, but since that decision (to use the CAG grade) came through we could have very many more students who met the condition and therefore must offer places to.
“We don’t know how many yet. UCAS is hoping to release that data tomorrow. But there will be more students who now qualify for a place with us.”
There are Government-imposed caps on numbers for subjects including medicine, health sciences and social work, so some students will have to be turned away until next year for those, but even if caps are lifted, universities may not have space to take as many more as fulfilled their offers.
“Even if the cap is lifted you can’t suddenly increase numbers on those courses because you need equal space. It seems very likely some students, even thought they have a place, will not get that place this year,” said Pro Riordan.
There are other areas where his university and others cannot handle large numbers of students because of Covid, including courses where studio space is needed, such as architecture.
“We have made our best efforts to meet the changing policy landscape. It could be two or three weeks before people know in some areas how many students there are.”
He warned there would be “a big ripple effect on admissions next year and the year after” and that universities would need extra money from the Welsh Government to accommodate more students.
Mark Garratt, interim director of marketing, recruitment and international at Swansea University said his university had made more offers than last year.
“We are not seeing large numbers of students deciding they now want to go somewhere else because they have now got higher grades.
“We have identified students in medicine who now may have had an offer from higher ranked schools, but they may not be able to take up those offers because of caps on numbers. We are having conversations with the regulator about what to do if we have more students than places in medicine.”
He said the public health emergency could be a good time to remove those caps and if it did Swansea “has the space and staff” to take more medical students.
In barely concealed frustration at the Whitehall and Welsh government’s handling of the affair he said: “It’s not a problem of our making. It’s put a lot of strain and stress on universities and unnecessarily so. It was not timely policy-making or clear.”
Aberystwyth University said it is responding to increased demand for places by running its Clearing helpline beyond the dates of appeals – September 7.
Cardiff Metropolitan University also said it had had “high demand through Clearing”. Universities Wales, which represents all eight universities in Wales,said it is in talks with Welsh Government to see what help they can offer.
The organisation said in a statement: “We expect that some courses will be over-subscribed and some may be under-subscribed, and this will vary within universities, not just between them.
“Oversubscribed courses that require placements will present particular challenges for universities and their partners to resolve.
“There are likely to be financial impacts for universities but, with the situation still evolving, it is too early to assess the full extent and nature of this impact.
“We expect that this will become clearer in the coming days as we get a firmer idea of admissions numbers at Welsh universities.
“Universities in Wales will do everything in their power to honour offers to all students who have achieved the conditions of their offer, with admissions teams across the county working hard to support students to find a suitable university place.
“We are in discussions with Welsh Government and the relevant professional bodies to determine how to approach those courses that have set limits on places.
“Universities will do all they can to ensure that, wherever possible, students who want to do so can start a course this term.”