It’s up to us to stave off the second spike

NEWPORT, Bridgend, Merthyr Tydfil and Blaenau Gwent will be joining RCT and Caerphilly in a local lockdown from 6pm today.

Pubs will be given an 11pm curfew, people can no longer form extended households, they will only be allowed to meet family members outdoors in a socially distanced way and people cannot leave or enter any of the boroughs without reasonable excuse.

Here we go again, right? Well, not necessarily.

There is no doubt that for the more than 850,000 people who will now have their freedoms further restricted, the new measures are a pain at best and potentially devastating at worst. People whose families are just over a local authority border are now unable to travel to see them. However, this does not have to mean the beginning of another stricter and wider lockdown like we saw in March. It is in our hands.

Everytime any of us, whether in lockdown or not, limit our social interactions and follow social distancing we cut a potential line of transmission. We must not see wider restrictions as inevitable. We owe it to ourselves and our most vulnerable to not just apathetically wander towards a second spike.

Lockdowns can work. We saw it in March and we are already seeing it in Caerphilly, where the outbreak appears to be stabilising.

If a second spike does come, the consequences could be severe. Yesterday, England’s scientific and medical advisers Professor Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance outlined what could be waiting for us this winter. Sir Patrick said that if the doubling time stayed at seven days, there would be 50,000 cases a day by the middle of October, and around 200-plus deaths a day by the middle of November.

All four nations’ chief medical officers, Prof Whitty included, say the virus’ transmission is high or rising expontentially.

While we can do our bit by sticking to the rules and maintaining social distancing, we also need our politicians to step up. Without adequate testing capacity there is simply no way out of this crisis. We saw 10 days ago the chaos in RCT after the UK Government’s Lighthouse Labs limited tests in the hard-hit area. But the Welsh Government can’t pass the buck here. Ultimately they chose to rely so heavily on Lighthouse Labs and need a plan in case the issues continue.

Never has our interdependence been more clear and stark than right now – we must all rise to the challenge.