UK needs to learn from New Zealand

IF WE are going to control Covid-19 properly we need to take a leaf out of New Zealand’s book and learn the lesson of real control.

From the start New Zealand did not fret about modelling or algorithm projections.

It looked at how the virus was spreading elsewhere and took action.

From the very beginning the government set out a four-level alert system with a full explanation of risk and the measures that needed to be taken. There was clarity.

In the first wave New Zealand only moved out of level-four lockdown at the end of April when there were only three new cases (UK = 40). It moved from level four to three on April 27, from three to two on May 13 and to level one on June 8. No new cases occurred during this time and there were no debates about whether this or that business or service should open.

It was all laid down from the start of lockdown.

The UK (or Wales) is nowhere near that.

There were 102 days without any cases when in August a family of four in Auckland tested positive. The next day Auckland moved from level one to three (of four) and the rest of the country to two. Over six weeks there were fewer than 200 cases (UK = fewer than 2,400, ie just over 50 a day and fewer than 400 a week). The week before moving from level three to two there were only seven cases (UK = 91). On October 7 Auckland moved to level one (like the rest of the country).

There were two cases of community transmission in Christchurch on October 21 and two in Auckland on November 12 which were quickly assessed and any spread was prevented.

On February 14 this year, after three clear months three cases (UK = 39) appeared in Auckland from nowhere. The origin of this case and the August one is still a mystery. There was an immediate threeday lockdown at level three. It was lowered to level two when the risk of it spreading was seen as low.

The New Zealand experience shows high vigilance has to be maintained and that a lockdown, albeit brief and regional, may be necessary from time to time. If Covid-19 can turn up in New Zealand after months without any cases this should tell us that the easing of restrictions should not be rushed – even in the context of our successful vaccine rollout.

Please note for equivalence the UK pop. is less than 13 times greater than that of NZ. When the pandemic broke out we were visiting our daughter’s family and were due home on April 3. We got home on August 14!

Win Griffiths Cefn Cribwr, Bridgend