Opposition to independence for Wales shrinks to lowest ever level – poll results
OPPOSITION to Welsh independence has fallen to its lowest ever level, with just half of people saying they would vote no in a referendum on the issue.
Results from the WalesOnline/ YouGov St David’s Day poll show just 50% of people say they would definitely oppose independence in a national vote.
Our poll shows the continuation of the remarkable growth in support for the independence movement, which has seen consistent growth since the Brexit referendum, with the current coronavirus crisis adding to that momentum.
While active support for independence remains at the 25% highwater mark recorded in polling throughout the pandemic, the proportion answering “don’t know” has swelled to 14% – adding to the growing uncertainty about the future of the UK. Among those giving a definitive answer, 33% say they would vote yes on independence for Wales, while 67% say they would vote no.
In answer to the question: “If there was a referendum tomorrow on Wales becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote?”, 25% said they would answer yes, 50% said no, 9% said they would not vote, and 14% said they didn’t know, with a further 2% refusing to answer.
The figure of 50% of those polled saying they would vote against independence is the lowest level seen in the polls.
A YouGov poll of 2014 put the figure at 70%, dropping to 65% straight after the EU referendum in 2016. Most of the polls in 2019 put the “no” level at around 57%, with a series of polls since the crisis putting it in the low 50s at between 52%-54%.
■ Should Wales be an independent country?
The number of people who would vote yes was fairly consistent with other recent polls.
Beneath the headline data there were also variances within subgroups, with age, previous voting and area all having an impact on people’s support for independence.
The younger people are, the more likely they were to support independence, with 40% of 16 to 14-yearolds saying the would vote yes if there was a referendum on Welsh independence tomorrow.
This falls to just 15% in over-65s. The part of Wales with the highest levels of support for independence was in and around Cardiff, with 34% of those polled indicating they would vote yes. The north of Wales was the most sceptical, with just 17% indicating support.
Unsurprisingly, people who voted Plaid Cymru in the last general election were massively in favour of independence, with 62% supporting independance. Conservative voters skewed the other way, with just 8% supporting it. Previous Labour voters
seemed far more on the fence, with 38% saying yes and 39% saying no.
A split was also seen based on how people voted in 2016 referendum on EU membership, with Leave voters 18 percentage points more likely to vote against independence than Remain.
MOTHERHOOD saved. This past week in Parliament a tiny sevenclause piece of legislation threatened to airbrush motherhood from the statute books.
A Bill extending maternity benefits to “pregnant persons” instead of “mothers” had been tabled by the Government. Woke drafters specially chose this wording to avoid causing offence. And so, a truly shocking precedent was set to be created. If the Bill had become law, it wouldn’t have been long before “mother” was expunged from other legislation too.
But Lord Lucas (a sensible politician) tabled an amendment to replace “person” with “mother”. The Government has now backed the amendment and accepted that pregnant persons are in fact mothers. Without exception. What a surprise!
The redefinition of marriage started this trend, airbrushing out the words husband and wife in documents. Politicians must realise enshrining a lie into law cannot change reality.
I am glad motherhood hasn’t been eliminated from the law. We can now still celebrate Mother’s Day on Sunday, March 14.
Norman Plaisted
Newport