Raising the profile of Wales in the world
LLOYD POWELL HEAD OF ACCA CYMRU WALES
DYDD Gwyl Dewi Hapus i chi gyd – Happy St David’s Day to you all! Today we celebrated St David’s Day with our annual St David’s Day Business Breakfast.
We heard from Nan Williams, chair of Global Welsh, about the international opportunities for Wales and how to amplify Wales’ presence globally.
So much has changed in Wales since we celebrated St David’s Day together last year. It’s been a year when we have all adapted our ways of working and of doing business. We’ve also had to adapt how we live our lives.
As the 12-month landmark since the start of the first lockdown approaches, it’s worth recognising the huge economic and human cost that we have sustained. It’s also right to remember those that we have lost.
With the vaccine now being successfully rolled out, all our minds are turning to the recovery phase – with renewed positivity and some trepidation too – as so many businesses across all sectors have been impacted. We all hope that the next 12 months bring renewed hope, recovery and a return to normality.
I know from conversations with many businesses that accountants have played a big part in supporting struggling enterprises over the past year. The support has included guidance for people navigating the business support packages available; advice on cashflow projections and tax; and helping businesses pivot to new activities.
The Welsh Government’s Economic Resilience and Reconstruction Mission, published last week, sets out the basis for economic recovery. This includes an emphasis on green reconstruction, investment in people and skills for the future and on digital transformation – all important areas for us at ACCA, as well as for our members and students. The report also places an emphasis on access to finance, which will involve a key role for accountants. And with reconstruction in mind, it is good to know our country has a worldwide reputation for enterprise and great ideas which brings investors and employers to our shores.
A recent example came lately when I was contacted by a colleague from Malaysia. He called first of all to let me know he had been watching Hinterland, the terrific Welsh TV crime drama during lockdown, and was really enjoying it. And secondly that he’d seen a TedTalk by Sophie Howe, the Future Generations Commissioner for Wales, and was inspired to see whether any similar work on sustainable development could be done in Malaysia. I was able to put him in touch with the Commissioner’s office, and we hope that Malaysia will be able to follow the lead of Wales in promoting sustainable development and wellbeing at a national level.
These are great examples of how Wales can be promoted on the world stage, and of how connections and communities can support this important work.
I am certain that in the months of recovery to come Wales will continue its long tradition of operating internationally. Wales has a long tradition of operating overseas, from the export of coal and steel in the 19th and 20th centuries to compound semi-conductors, cybersecurity and fintech clusters in the 21st century, with new highgrowth and value sectors and companies operating from Wales.
Wales has produced worldrenowned cultural exports such as Dylan Thomas, Shirley Bassey and the Manic Street Preachers, and world-famous sporting stars such as Gareth Edwards, Gareth Bale, Geraint Thomas and Jade Jones.
We have universities and colleges that are building international research and teaching partnerships. The value that comes from these activities goes far beyond the financial – it helps to build Wales’ reputation internationally.
Anyone who travels overseas – when Covid permits – recognises the benefits that come from international partnerships and collaboration, and the mutual support and shared learning that come from working across continents.
The Welsh Government’s International Strategy and the related Action Plans place a strong emphasis on promoting Wales on the global stage, on increasing international exports and attracting inward investment.
According to ONS figures, only 4% of the business population of Wales is involved in exporting goods or services, and a large proportion of our exports comes from a small number of large companies. As is well-known, the Welsh economy is comprised of a high percentage of small and mediumsized firms, and therefore increasing the percentage of SMEs involved in exporting goods and services offers a real opportunity for growth.
We hope to see many more examples of Welsh enterprise emerging in the coming months. Then perhaps we can allow ourselves a little optimism, and hope that by St David’s Day 2022 we will be looking back on a year when the Welsh economy bounced back stronger than ever from the ravages of Covid-19.
THE latest polling in Wales has thrown up as many questions as answers. In terms of how well they have handled the crisis, both the Welsh Government and Mark Drakeford are massively outperforming the UK Government and Boris Johnson.
A YouGov/WalesOnline poll has found that Drakeford, on 54%, is 18 percentage points ahead of Johnson, with the Welsh Government on 60%, a full 21 percentage points ahead of their counterparts in Westminster.
But this throws up a series of questions:
■ Why is Drakeford polling higher than Johnson?
■ Why is the UK Government polling lower than the Welsh Government when they have followed broadly similar policies to broadly similar outcomes?
■ Why, despite these high approval ratings, does the poll also suggest that the Welsh Conservatives are going to make significant gains from Labour at the Senedd election in May?
Taking those first two questions together, why is Drakeford and the government he leads polling so far above the UK and Johnson in regard to Covid?
After all, their handling hasn’t been wildly different.
Both were embroiled in the farce that was A-level and GCSE results.
Both mismanaged the spike in cases in the autumn, with the Welsh Government acting early, but not staying in lockdown for long enough, whereas the UK Government locked down for longer, but later.
Both failed to act decisively enough in the week leading up to Christmas, with the Welsh Government banking on hospitality restrictions (which didn’t work) and the UK Government hardly acting at all.
Coming out of lockdown last summer, the UK Government was criticised for being gung-ho in lifting restrictions, whereas the Welsh Government was taking pelters for being unnecessary slow and wasting time when people could have been enjoying some precious normality over the summer.
Before that, both governments totally botched their handling of care homes, with discharges from hospitals likely playing a role in seeding the virus in the part of the country where it would be most deadly.
At the very start of the pandemic both sides of the border saw chronic PPE shortages, shortfalls in testing and a slow move into lockdown which seemed oblivious to what was happening in Italy and Spain.
Yes, the UK Government was taking the lead at the time, but it was the Welsh Government that allowed itself to be led.
So why is the Welsh Government’s response seen in more favourable terms?
It is likely to be a huge range of factors, but a key part is presentation.
The juxtapositions between the Welsh Government and UK Government press conferences have been stark. Whether you like what is being said or not, there is no denying that Drakeford has generally been less evasive and more details-focused than Johnson.
The very set-up of the respective press conferences shows contrasting attitudes towards scrutiny.
For the first 10 weeks of the crisis, journalists were able to ask two questions in both the UK and Welsh governments’ press conferences – giving them an opportunity to challenge or come back on points. After the Dominic Cummings saga at the end of May, the UK Government restricted journalists to just one.
Drakeford by his very nature is very
detail-oriented, whereas Johnson is well known for preferring to be a showman, rather than provide indepth explanation of the issues at hand. This means that when things have gone wrong, voters can at least see Drakeford’s workings.
Additionally, there have been a series of controversies which are the UK Government’s alone, including the aforementioned Cummings incident, the handing out of large government contracts to Conservative Party donors, issues around the lighthouse labs (although the Welsh Government also signed up to these) and issues around the lack of travel restrictions for people entering the UK.
What also can’t be ignored is the fact that a significant percentage of the Welsh population are politically inclined to be critical of the UK Government.
According to the YouGov/WalesOnline poll, only around a quarter of eligible voters in Wales will vote Conservative in the Senedd election.
It stands to reason, therefore, that people’s political leanings could affect how they perceive the performance
of the relative administrations.
This has also played out in Scotland, where Nicola Sturgeon has been roundly seen as performing well compared to Johnson, despite limited divergence in terms of overall mortality rates. The SNP leader has proved very accomplished at pointing the finger south of the border during the crisis, which has likely helped her polling performance.
Drakeford cannot do this to the same extent, as this would feed into the narrative often put forward by Plaid as well as going against his unionist instincts and desire for a four-nation approach where possible.
However, the polling figures suggest that he is still receiving a bump from his occasional conflicts with Westminster over such issues as the UK Government refusing to restrict travel from areas of England with high virus rates. This can perhaps account for the fact that 71% of Plaid Cymru voters believe he has handled the crisis well – slightly more than Labour voters (68%).
But all this then raises the question of why this support for the Covid approach has not resulted in a fillip for Labour in terms of predicted seats at the next election?
The poll suggests that Labour will have just 24 seats (down five from 2016) with 21 constituency seats and three regional.
Based on this poll, the Tories are likely to gain Vale of Glamorgan, Vale of Clwyd and Gower, with Plaid also possibly taking Blaenau Gwent and Llanelli from Labour.
So if Drakeford is seen to have handled the crisis better than Johnson and generally to have done well, why is he being punished in the polls?
This is hugely complicated, with lots of moving parts, but there are likely several factors at play.
Firstly, we need to bear in mind that the last election was half a decade ago and should, therefore, be hesitant to look at 2016 and 2021 as though nothing has happened in between.
Just 15 months ago Labour was crushed in a general election due more to a collapse in Labour support than a growth in Conservative backing.
It is perfectly possible that the favourable perception of Drakeford and the Welsh Government’s handling of the crisis has prevented the polling numbers being far worse than they would otherwise have been.
Other rationale may also be found in the data, which shows the age group where the Welsh Government and Drakeford are performing worst in regarding their handling of Covid is ages 16-24 (53% think the Welsh Government has handled the crisis well) with them performing best in over65s (73%).
Given that most older voters are likely to skew Conservative, then there is a possibility that perceived competence over Covid will actually not translate into votes at the ballot box, as those who approve will not vote Labour. This is, of course, not an exact science and needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.
Perhaps the strongest rationale behind this inability to turn Covidhandling competency into votes is the fact that handling of the crisis doesn’t actually register high up on voters’ priorities.
Most people want House of Lords reform, but this doesn’t give the Lib Dems huge majorities.
Add to that the general fatigue people are experiencing and desire for anything that feels like a change, then it is perfectly feasible that the Welsh Government’s strong polling on the Covid crisis will not translate into election success.