Reshaping the future of Wales at this time of uncertainty
Here, Political editor-at-large Martin Shipton argues that Wales is at a crossroads and why May’s Senedd election is the most important for some time amid Covid, Brexit and constitutional questions
POLITICIANS and journalists have a tendency to claim that the next election coming up is the most important one for many years.
Usually this can be taken with a pinch of salt, but there are serious grounds for believing that the Senedd election due to take place in two months’ time can lay claim to a special significance.
After 21 years of devolution, Wales is at a crossroads.
The National Assembly has enhanced its status to become a Parliament at the very time when its powers are under threat from a Westminster Conservative Government that apparently wants to trim its sails.
Yet simultaneously, a global public health crisis created an unexpected turn of events that made the Welsh Government in Cardiff more visible – and with greater control over people’s lives – than had ever been anticipated.
Add to that the disruption to Wales and the UK as a whole caused by Brexit and there is a sense that big changes could be on the way.
What’s unsettling is that it’s extremely difficult to predict what such changes will amount to.
It used to be a given that constitutional questions figured fairly low in voters’ priorities. That changed in 2016 when a majority voted for the UK to leave the EU.
Brexit created such churn that discussing the break-up of the UK is now accepted as a mainstream part of political discourse in a way it never was before.
Scotland could vote for independence if the SNP, as expected, wins a majority in the Scottish Parliament election, and if Boris Johnson finds himself unable to resist the push for another referendum.
There could be a border poll in Northern Ireland that would result in reunification with the Republic.
Wales’ future status will, therefore, inevitably be up for debate in the coming election campaign.
Paradoxically, much of the noise is likely to be made not by those who support the current devolved arrangements, but by minorities who want to change them for something else.
Yes Cymru, the pro-independence movement, has run a very energetic social media campaign, and boasts more than 17,000 members.
The organisation won’t appear on ballot papers, but its existence, coupled with events on the wider political stage, has led to Plaid Cymru committing itself to an earlier referendum on Welsh independence than its previous strategy allowed for.
Such a referendum would now be held during the five-year Senedd term that will start after the election in May, were a majority of MSs to vote for it.
At the other end of the political spectrum is the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party, largely composed of former Ukip members who see it as a vehicle for channelling the kind of populist anti-politics narrative that won Ukip seven seats at the last National Assembly election in 2016.
In the early years of devolution, the politicians who debated with each other in Cardiff Bay tended to do so in a civilised “inclusive” way.
The exception was the first Tory group leader, the late Rod Richards, whose attempts to bring Westminster-style aggression to the chamber were cut short when he was forced to resign because of a serious assault charge – of which he was later acquitted.
In policy terms, it was often difficult to identify the fault lines between the parties. This was illustrated perfectly at a pub quiz organised by lobbyists where most teams thought a socially progressive extract from the Conservative manifesto was in fact from Welsh Labour’s.
While elements of the “cosy consensus”, as it was characterised negatively, remain, especially at committee meetings, there is much more ill-tempered aggression at the Senedd than used to be the case, reflecting perhaps the political atmosphere in society as a whole.
We can expect to see this during the election campaign – more so on social media, perhaps, from the followers of politicians rather than from politicians themselves.
There is already considerable bad blood between Welsh nationalists and those who want to abolish “the Assembly”, as they provocatively insist on continuing to call it, despite the body’s official change of name to Welsh Parliament/Senedd Cymru nearly a year ago.
What scope for compromise could there possibly be between those who want to transform the Senedd into the democratic bastion of an independent Welsh state and those who want to shut it down?
While May’s election will not in itself alter the constitutional status of Wales – unless there is a wholly unlikely surge in support for the Abolish party – it would be foolish to ignore the possibility that the breakup of the UK could move from theory to fact during the next Senedd term.
More immediately, of course, the election will be fought with the trauma of the pandemic and the lockdowns very much at the forefront of voters’ minds.
We know from our poll published today that more people in Wales have been impressed by the Welsh Government’s handling of the Covid-19 crisis than the UK Government’s handling of it.
Whether such sentiments will translate directly into voting intention is another matter.
The UK has so far had around 122,000 deaths, more than 5,000 of which have been in Wales – among
the worst mortality rates in the world.
Yet there has been surprisingly little backlash about the deaths, with much greater attention given to the impact of successive lockdowns on the economy and people’s lifestyles.
It’s difficult to avoid the conclusion that the lack of emphasis on the death toll stems from the predominantly right-wing nature of the British press.
One can only speculate about the level of criticism that would have been directed at a Labour Prime Minister, had the result of the 2019 general election been different and the mortality rate been as high.
Of course, we have a Labour First Minister in Wales, but criticism of him has been relatively muted because his government has performed no worse – and arguably better – than Boris Johnson’s.
Nevertheless, our poll suggests that the Conservatives are doing quite well in Wales, possibly because of a “vaccine bounce” that reflects the successful roll-out of the vaccination programme, which is happening faster in the UK than in EU countries.
Yet there are longer-term factors at play too, with Labour’s decline in the share of the vote being part of an historic pattern linked to social changes in Wales, where the support of what was once a strongly unionised working-class base can no longer be taken for granted.
At the last election in 2016 Labour’s vote was 7.6% down in the constituency part of the ballot on what it had been in 2011. Yet the party lost only one seat because of the split nature of the anti-Labour vote between – in the main – the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru.
The Welsh Government is responsible for many public services in Wales, mostly indirectly – and it also has some control over economic outcomes.
Opposition parties have criticised public sector performance, for example in terms of hospital and ambulance waiting times, schools performance and the general economy, claiming Labour is incompetent and that they could do better. Could they be right?
All the parties’ manifestos, once they are published, will deserve close scrutiny.
But the history of devolved elections in Wales suggests that voting patterns are quite strongly influenced by the state of UK politics – more so than is the case in Scotland.
Labour continues to have a stronger following in Wales than in England, and that has to be taken into account when considering potential election outcomes.
Parties are often judged by their leaders, and in Mark Drakeford Welsh Labour has one who has grown in visibility and stature during the pandemic.
When he was elected in December 2018, many saw him as an uncharismatic, professorial figure.
He has remained professorial, but polling has shown that people have warmed to the straightforward, unshowy nature of his televised Covid-19 briefings – perhaps in contrast to the very different style of Boris Johnson.
They may not relish the lockdown restrictions that have been imposed on them, but a majority prefer his “bedside manner” and the perception that he has adopted a more cautious approach.
There remain tensions within the UK Labour Party, however, between left-wing members who supported Jeremy Corbyn and those who back his successor as leader Sir Keir Starmer.
Such tensions have spilt over into Wales, and even to Mr Drakeford’s Cardiff West constituency party, where members have been suspended in an arguably heavy-handed manner.
Parties perceived as divided tend to suffer at elections, and the First Minister will be anxious to ensure that this dispute doesn’t magnify.
The Welsh Conservatives have had their problems too, with Paul Davies having to resign as their Senedd group leader after getting caught up in a row over whether he broke lockdown rules by drinking alcohol in the Members’ tea room.
There is also an influential element within the party that has been flirting with Senedd abolition – a concept to which a number of candidates have signed up.
Pro-devolutionists like David Melding and Angela Burns are retiring, while Suzy Davies was de-selected and the highly-regarded former AM Jonathan Morgan was excluded from the members’ ballot for selection as a regional candidate.
Plaid Cymru’s aim is for Labour to lose a few seats and for it to come second, ahead of the Conservatives. They would then hope to get their leader Adam Price elected as First Minister at the first Senedd meeting after the election with the support of the Conservatives and any smaller parties that manage to win seats.
The plan will unravel, however, if the Conservatives come second, as today’s poll suggests.
The Abolish the Assembly Party appears to be on course to pick up at least some of the regional seats that were won by Ukip in 2016, ensuring that there will be no return to the cosy consensus of former times.
A number of other factors will also be at play in the election campaign.
Opposition parties will inevitably point to Labour’s uninterrupted time in government since devolution began in 1999, suggesting such an extended period in power is bad for democracy and that it’s time for a change.
Mr Drakeford has already responded to such arguments, insisting that Labour has adapted to changing circumstances, that it has not presided over a “one-party state” as it has shared power with other parties, and that it has consistently been re-elected by voters.
Differential turnout according to party allegiance has in the past had an impact on election outcomes, with there being a sizeable drop in the Tory vote between Westminster elections and those for what was the National Assembly and is now the Senedd.
That has been because many Conservative voters are either opposed to the Senedd’s existence or not interested enough to take part.
It will be interesting to see whether the heightened level of interest in devolved matters because of the pandemic and speculation about the possible break-up of the UK will boost turnout or not.
In the five Assembly elections held so far, the proportion of people voting has never reached 50%.
The election can be seen in many ways – as a referendum on the Welsh Government’s handling of the pandemic, as a verdict on the consequences of Brexit and leaving the European Single Market and Customs Union, as a stepping-stone towards Welsh independence or the abolition of the Senedd.
People can view it however they wish.
We can’t predict what the future may hold for Wales.
All of us, however, will on May 6 have a chance to help shape it.